# 2018 World Cup odds and predictions: Advanced computer model picks the winner of every group

Everyone has an opinion on the World Cup. Held once every four years, it's arguably the most popular sporting event in the world. The 2018 World Cup is underway, and Brazil, France and Germany entered Russia 2018 as the favorites to lift the trophy when a champion is crowned on July 15. In addition to betting on an overall winner of the 2018 World Cup, you can wager on the results of all eight groups. And even though Sunday marks the fourth day of World Cup matches, you can still wager at many sports books. For instance, Colombia is +115 to win Group H, meaning it would take a \$100 bet on the Colombians to win their group to return \$115.

Before you make your picks on which teams top their respective groups at the 2018 World Cup, you need to see what European soccer expert David Sumpter has to say.

Sumpter is an applied mathematician who wrote "Soccermatics," the book that shows how math works inside the game. Together with experienced analysts, Professor Sumpter developed the powerful Soccerbot model.

The Soccerbot reads current odds and all team performance data, calculates key metrics and predicts upcoming matches. In the 2½ seasons since it was born, the Soccerbot is up 1,800 percent on bookmakers' closing odds. That's right -- 1,800 percent.

Now, the Soccerbot has computed each country's true probability of winning its group at the World Cup 2018.

We can tell you Brazil has the highest probability to advance out of Group E despite losing defender Dani Alves to a knee injury. The 35-year-old, who has made 107 appearances for the Brazilian National Team, was injured while playing for PSG in the Coupe de France final.

Another team the model is all over to win its group: Colombia, which has a 40.2 percent chance of topping Group H.

Colombia enters the 2018 World Cup with plenty of talent and is looking to build off its surprising run at the last World Cup. Colombia's James Rodriguez scored six goals in Brazil on his way to the Golden Boot award. He made a name for himself four years ago and will look to build off his solid season with Bayern Munich. Colombia should be the class of Group H, and this team is well-built to make a run at the World Cup 2018.

Poland (31.6 percent) is another team to watch in Group H, but ultimately the star power of Colombia will be too much to overcome, the model predicts.

Sumpter's model also says two countries with World Cup outright odds of longer than 25-1 will advance past the group stage. Anyone who backs these underdogs could hit it big.

So who wins each group at the 2018 World Cup? And which massive long shots have the best chance to shock the world and advance to the Round of 16? Check out the odds below and then visit SportsLine now to see who David Sumpter is picking to win each group at the 2018 World Cup, all from a European soccer expert who created a model that's returned an 1800 percent profit on bookmakers' closing odds.

Group A
Uruguay -110
Russia +160
Egypt +500
Saudi Arabia +4000

Group B
Spain -220
Portugal +220
Morocco +1600
Iran +4000

Group C
France -425
Denmark +550
Peru +1000
Australia +2000

Group D
Argentina -200
Croatia +250
Nigeria +1200
Iceland +1200

Group E
Brazil -450
Switzerland +700
Serbia +800
Costa Rica +2000

Group F
Germany -325
Mexico +500
Sweden +700
South Korea +2000

Group G
Belgium -140
England +120
Tunisia +2200
Panama +4000

Group H
Colombia +120
Poland +180
Senegal +500
Japan +700

Our Latest Stories