Is a Waiver Wire article the right place to address Javier Assad? He's already rostered in 78 percent of CBS Sports leagues, and I may actually come down on the side of that being too many.
But I have things to say about him, and this is the place for me to say things today. So here we go.
I suppose the logical starting point is the 1.49 ERA. Assad actually lowered it for the third time in four starts with his six shutout innings Wednesday at the Braves. It's a mark that's too good to be true for any pitcher, much less one with only 7.8 K/9 and a 6.4 percent swinging-strike rate that would have ranked dead last among qualifying pitchers last year.
The quality of the contact against Assad must be exceptionally poor for him to succeed with so few missed bats, right? You'd think so, but his average exit velocity is middle of the pack. He also puts the ball in the air at a higher-than-average rate, which you'd think would make him vulnerable to the long ball, and yet he's only allowed two all season.
So wouldn't the simplest explanation be that he's had good home run luck to this point? I'm of the mind that that simple explanation is generally the best one, and in this case, it would also account for the disparity between Assad's FIP (a surprisingly excellent 2.90) and his xFIP (a more believable 4.21). But there's unfortunately one small issue that makes it less than crystal clear.
The league as a whole isn't allowing home runs at its usual rate.
Yes, that same bugaboo from the past few years is still in play today: Just how deadened or lively is the ball that they're using? Two years ago, it seemed like the ball had been deadened with the league-wide home run-to-fly ball rate slipping to 11.4 percent, but it bounced back to a more typical 12.7 percent last year. So far this year, it's only 10.8 percent. Granted, the hottest months of the season are when the ball tends to be at its liveliest, and we haven't entered those yet. But as things currently stand, this season is shaping up to be the worst for home runs in over a decade, and as long as it holds, Assad could continue to defy expectations. Maybe not to the tune of a 1.49 ERA, but is 2.90 (as his FIP would suggest) really so far-fetched? Shoot, he had a 3.09 ERA last year. I'd still bet on him turning back into waiver fodder in the long run, but if you want to take a flier on him just in case he's a product of this new environment, it's not a crazy idea.
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So are we in or out on Erick Fedde? You can understand the indecision given that he pitches for a horrible White Sox team and has no standout skill that I can see. His strikeout and walk rates are merely OK. His swinging strike rate (7.9 percent) is straight-up pitiful. His ground-ball rate (45.9 percent) isn't nearly the outlier it was in the Korean league last year. And yet Fedde continues to deliver, to the point he now has a 2.60 ERA and 1.06 WHIP. In the long run, he probably pitches to a mid-threes ERA, which is what his xERA and xFIP suggest he should have now, and with the White Sox lineup and bullpen backing him up, I question how impactful such an ERA would be. But clearly, Fedde is usable for Fantasy, and that meets the standard of a waiver pickup right now.
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Wednesday's start for Brandon Pfaadt is in some part an indictment of the Reds offense, and the fact he had fewer swinging-strikes (eight) than strikeouts (nine) is some Mitch Keller-level weirdness. But overall, Pfaadt's swinging-strike rate is around 11 percent, which is respectable. He's striking out 8.5 batters per nine innings and has been one of the top strike-throwers in baseball, walking just 1.7 batters per nine. The continued fading of his four-seamer, which began in the second half last year, seems to have curbed his home run issues, and his xERA, FIP and xFIP are all in the low threes, suggesting he deserves better than his current 4.17 ERA. I don't see an ace outcome for Pfaadt, but as a stable arm to round out your pitching staff, he's a fine choice.
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What's funny is that my level of interest in the pitchers featured in this article is precisely the reverse of their current roster rate, making Reese Olson the highest priority of the four. The only reason I can figure he's so available still is that he has an 0-4 record, which is hardly his fault given the 2.09 ERA and 0.99 WHIP. To what degree should we buy into those numbers? Well, he hasn't allowed a single home run yet, which itself would suggest some correction in ERA. But unlike Javier Assad and Erick Fedde, Olson's talents are plain to see. His slider and changeup both have better than a 40 percent whiff rate, and he's throwing both in near equal measure to his fastball. He also has a 55.4 percent ground-ball rate that ranks seventh among qualifiers.
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J.D. Martinez had 33 homers and 103 RBI in 113 games for the Dodgers last year. Prorated for 162 games, those numbers come out to 47 homers and 147 RBI. With that in mind, there are only two reasons I can fathom for why he's so available in Fantasy. The biggest is that he signed late in spring training, forcing him to spend the first four weeks in the minors. That wait was just too much for some people, I guess. The second is that he's DH-only, and in smaller Head-to-Head lineups, it's likely that some teams have an extra infielder or outfielder to fill that spot already. But he's active now, playing every day for the Mets, and heating up, having gone 7 for 20 (.350) with two homers and two doubles in his past five games. Surely someone in your league could use an extra big bat.
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When Joey Ortiz went to the Brewers in the Corbin Burnes trade this offseason, it seemed like a golden opportunity for a player who had demonstrated quality bat-to-ball skills and impressive high-end exit velocities in the minors. For the first few weeks, though, he faced the same problem as with the Orioles: no place to play. That's beginning to change, though. The Brewers have started Ortiz in eight of their past 10 games and recently optioned his primary competitor, Oliver Dunn, to the minors. In his part-time role, Ortiz has delivered a .277/.384/.511 slash line, which would certainly be good enough for most Fantasy leagues. His 49.3 percent ground-ball rate undermines his high-end exit velocities to some degree, but it's at 40 percent since April 25, during which he has hit all four of his home runs.
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