The NASCAR Cup Series will crown a champion on Sunday when the season concludes at Phoenix Raceway. Brad Keselowski and Joey Logano are each seeking their second title while Chase Elliott and Denny Hamlin are looking to become champions for the first time in the Cup Series.
Hamlin is the +225 favorite to win the title at William Hill Sportsbook. Elliott is +275, Keselowski is +280 and Logano is +300. The champion doesn't necessarily need to win the race, however the past six champions have also won the final race.
The race odds aren't too different from the title odds. Hamlin is +300 with Keselowski behind him at +350. Both Logano and Elliott are +450. Kevin Harvick, the regular season champion who missed the Championship 4, is +400 to win the race.
There are also bets to be made on driver matchups and daily fantasy. Below are our top plays for NASCAR's season finale.
Pick to win the race and title: Joey Logano
Full disclosure, prior to the playoffs we picked Hamlin to win the title. However, there are multiple reasons we're walking that back. Hamlin had a lackluster Round of 8 that nearly saw him eliminated from the playoffs like Harvick. He posted finishes of 15, 9 and 11 respectively and outside of his win and top-3 finish in the Round of 12, Hamlin has not looked like the same dominant force he was prior to the playoffs. Hamlin did win at Phoenix last year but earlier this season came in 20th.
Now that we've rationalized picking against the favorite, let's explain why we like the driver with the worst odds to win the title. First of all, Phoenix is a good track for him. Logano has two wins there including one earlier this season. In each of his past two starts at Phoenix, Logano has led at least 60 laps.
Logano is also in a familiar situation to where he was in 2018, when he won his first career title. Back in 2018, Logano won the first race of the Round of 8, which gave his team ample time with no pressure to prepare for the championship. By virtue of Logano's 2020 win at Kansas, he finds himself in the exact same position. The No. 22 team clearly has their heads in the game too. Despite having nothing to race for, Logano finished third in the Round of 8 finale at Martinsville.
It is likely that all four championship drivers finish in the top 10 of this race, however when it's all said and done, we believe Logano will come out on top.
Championship 4 final standings prediction
- Joey Logano
- Denny Hamlin
- Brad Keselowski
- Chase Elliott
All odds via William Hill Sportsbook
Driver matchup Picks
Note, the driver on the left and in bold is our projected winner.
- Denny Hamlin (-115) vs Brad Keselowski (-105)
- Joey Logano (+100) vs Chase Elliott (-120)
- Kevin Harvick (-150) vs Martin Truex Jr. (+130)
- Ryan Blaney (+105) vs Kyle Busch (-125)
- Erik Jones (+110) vs Kurt Busch (-130)
- Clint Bowyer (-120) vs Jimmie Johnson (+100)
- Aric Almirola (+100) vs Alex Bowman (-120)
- William Byron (-105) vs Matt DiBenedetto (-115)
- Austin Dillon (-125) vs Christopher Bell (+105)
- Cole Custer (-130) vs Tyler Reddick (+110)
Best bet: Bowyer (-120) vs Johnson
The biggest storyline outside of the playoffs are two drivers, Johnson and Bowyer, ending their long NASCAR careers on the track. Johnson of course is one of the all-time greats with seven titles, however, bettors have short-term memory. While Johnson is going to be a sentimental play, the stats here clearly back Bowyer as of late.
Bowyer has two straight top-8 finishes at the track including a fifth-place finish earlier in March. Comparatively, Johnson has only finished higher than 12th just once since the second race in 2017. Both will be pressing for a win, but from what we've seen lately, when Bowyer is competitive it works out for him. Johnson has pressed at points this season in trying to win that he's dug himself into holes.
Top Daily Fantasy Targets
Dominators: Joey Logano ($10,000 DraftKings, $13,300 FanDuel), Kyle Busch ($9,600 DK, $12,000 FD)
Logano is a great-priced option, especially in DraftKings, compared to the other Championship 4 drivers. There's a solid opportunity to pair Logano with a driver like Kyle Busch, who loves Phoenix, or Blaney. We mentioned all the reasons to like Logano, hence why we're picking him. As for pairing him with Busch, the No. 18 has 10-straight top-10 finishes at the track.
Mid-range options: Aric Almirola ($7,800 DK, $9,800 FD), Austin Dillon ($7,400 DK, $7,000 FD)
Bowyer is definitely an option here two but we wanted to give you more options to choose from. Almirola runs well at Phoenix and has top-10 potential despite not being a great place differential play. Of drivers in this race, Almirola actually has the fifth-highest average finish over his past 10 starts there. Five of his past six starts at Phoenix have resulted in top 10s.
As for Dillon, he's more of a contrarian play based on previous results here. That said, he has performed on the one mile tracks this season including Richmond. For reference, Keselowski is using his Richmond car to compete for the championship. Dillon also had a strong car at Richmond and has top-10 potential with a starting position of 18th. Dillon does have two top-10 finishes at this track over his past 10 starts.
Low-priced options: Michael McDowell ($6,300 DK, $5,000 FD), Cole Custer ($6,900 DK, $8,500 FD)
Custer's price is much more favorable from a DraftKings perspective, but he's definitely worth a play there. Like Dillon, Custer has top-10 potential. Custer drove the No. 41 to a top-10 finish at Phoenix earlier this season and expects to be competitive.
As for McDowell, penalties led to a rough day at the office in the Round of 8 finale. That said, he's been fairly hit or miss at Phoenix. He hit earlier this season, finishing 16th. He now has two 16th-place finishes in his past four starts there. If McDowell doesn't meet that ceiling, he's low risk in that he's starting 29th. This is a low-risk, high-reward play.
Ultimate fade: Alex Bowman ($9,000 DK, $10,000 FD)
We like Alex as a person and have given him out as a play in the past, but we just don't see the value on him this week. Bowman hasn't finished higher than 13th at his home track in the past five starts and is being scored from a place differential position of sixth.
There is no doubting the No. 88 team has been on fire lately, posting four straight top-8 finishes but we expected those kinds of finishes from him there as he was competing for a shot at the title. If Bowman simply does what he's done at Phoenix in the past, it's a losing game.
