LOUISVILLE -- Every year, it seems, the PGA Championship trope is as follows: There are only four or five (or maybe six) golfers who can win the second major of the year. That is not always true, of course, but it has felt true of late, and it perhaps feels the most true this year at Valhalla where the course is sprawling, wet and requiring as much length off the tee as any major in recent memory.
It seems like, as Joseph LaMagna and Garrett Morrison opined on the Fried Egg podcast this week, Valhalla as a golf course will deliver "an extreme version of a major championship" that demands a locked-in driver. Perhaps it will create, as Justin Thomas said Tuesday, a bunched up leaderboard come the weekend. Perhaps it will not.
With that in mind, here is the group of nine players that can win this tournament. (If you want a more expanded look, you can take a look at the top 24 players in the PGA Championship field.) The eventual PGA champion has been singled out in this exercise over the last few years, and there's no reason to think it will be any different in the 106th playing of this tournament.
Don't miss a second of action this week with our PGA Championship TV schedule and live coverage guide along with the full slate of Round 1 tee times and pairings.
2024 PGA Championship predictions, favorites
| 1 | |
| After reading and thinking all week about this major and seeing it briefly in person, it's difficult to imagine a better setup for the four-time major champion who is also coming into this event off a five-shot win in which he absolutely destroyed driver all week. He is arguably (inarguably?) the best driver in the world and will lean on it across 72 holes at Valhalla. It's difficult to see him not contending. Odds: 15/2 | |
| 2 | |
| Valhalla not quite as great of a setup for him as, say, Augusta National or Pinehurst because it requires less strategy and less short game than those two venues. The counter to that is that there are no bad Scheffler venues, and he is the best in the world at simple and straightforward execution right now. If he putts, he probably wins again and takes the grand slam to Pinehurst (where he could certainly win as well). Odds: 9/2 | |
| 3 | |
| Koepka rounds out the clear big three this week, and this is a course and a championship that is built for the brawling Brooks. The LIV Singapore victory is meaningful, but so is the poor performance at the Masters. He has been in one of the final few groups in four of the last five PGA Championships ,so it would be fairly out of the ordinary for the reigning champion to not at least be in the mix on Saturday evening. Odds: 16-1 | |
| 4 | |
| The 2020 U.S. Open champion brings a game fit for this track and also some momentum from the Masters. It honestly feels a bit like how Koepka went into Oak Hill last year. Given Bryson's odds, he's a steal going into the week. Odds: 28-1 | |
| 5 | |
| I understand all the reasons why Young would not win this tournament -- no victories, a possibly inability to close out tournaments and a short game that is not elite -- but he's also among the five players with the most in the tank off the tee. Young is a great major championship golfer who has quietly been playing some solid golf so far this year. He has finished in the top 10 in five of the last eight majors. Odds: 50-1 | |
| 6 | |
| The runner-up at the Masters is being forgotten about a bit going into the week, but he certainly has the juice to win this tournament. He withdrew from the Wells Fargo Championship with a knee issue that didn't sound like a big deal but could be something to keep an eye on. Regardless, he is a big-time hitter whose striking should elevate him above most of the rest of the field by the end of the week. Åberg ranks No. 6 in ball-striking among those with more than 10 measured rounds so far in 2024. Odds: 22-1 | |
| 7 | |
| Another guy with plenty in the tank, Clark has been hot and cold so far in 2024, which is fine and perhaps even preferred when trying to determine major winners. He has four top-three finishes -- all at big events -- but those are also his only top 25s on the season. So, it'll likely be feast or famine: heavily in contention or nowhere near the top of the leaderboard. He has the ball speed to roll around this golf course, though, and Valhalla is playing soft enough to corral those sometimes-right misses that plague him. Odds: 40-1 | |
| 8 | |
| Possibly the best major golfer in the field who has yet to win a major. The top three major golfers statistically since Jan. 1, 2021, are Scheffler, Zalatoris and McIlroy -- in that order. He had another quiet top 10 at the Masters a month ago, and while I prefer him on a Southern Hills or Los Angeles Country Club, I also have more confidence in him at the majors in general than, say, a Xander Schauffele or Patrick Cantlay. Odds: 75-1 | |
| 9 | |
| I don't have a lot of confidence in him in general this week because he hasn't been playing all that well. However, he's the type of player who, if he gets in contention early, will remember what winning a major feels like. He seems all out of sorts going in -- and has for much of the year -- but he's still generationally good. If the first 36 holes go well, all bets are off. Odds: 16-1 | |
Who will win the 2024 PGA Championship, and which longshots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected PGA Championship leaderboard, all from the model that has nailed 11 golf majors, including the last three Masters.
