Every year, a few players still in the early stages of their career, take that next step. They go from decent production to explosive point totals, more established roles and become vital to their team's success or failure.
Last year, it was Evgeny Kuznetsov of the Washington Capitals who took his game to a new level, possibly even exceeding expectations. He led the Presidents' Trophy winners in scoring. So who will it be this year?
Some of the players on the list for 2016-17 have already had some impressive performances and seasons, but they all still have another level to get to. If any of them do, their teams will be able to reap instant benefits.
Here's a look at 10 candidates poised to break out in 2016-17.
1. Jonathan Drouin, Tampa Bay Lightning: One of our breakout candidates last season, Drouin's drama-filled 2015-16 campaign put everything on hold. However, his return to the team at the end of the year and subsequent brilliance during the Lightning's run to the Eastern Conference Final, suggests that this will be a big season for the former No. 3 overall pick. After the Lightning held firm on not trading him despite his demands, it looks like the relationship is mostly patched up. That's what an elevated role and 14 points in 17 postseason games will do for you. Drouin is also in a contract year, so the incentives for him to put together his best pro season are numerous. This is the year he takes that next step.
2. Morgan Rielly, Toronto Maple Leafs: No one will dispute the skill and talent level of Rielly. The Maple Leafs have already shown faith in him by handing him six-year, $30 million extension. Unfortunately for Rielly, he's had to play on some pretty poor Maple Leafs teams for the first three years of his career, which has stifled his production. However, in Year 2 of the Mike Babcock regime and with the team getting an influx of skill from some of their prospects making the NHL team, Rielly is poised to have his best season yet. The 22-year-old put up 36 points last year and has seen his point totals go up in each of his first three years. There's no reason to doubt he will become an annual 40- to 50-point (or better) defenseman. Look for that to start this year.
3. Mattias Ekholm, Nashville Predators: At 26 years old, Ekholm took a little while to reach his vast potential. He seems to be in the sweet spot right now. After putting up 35 points last season and putting together a particularly impressive performance for the Preds during the playoffs with seven points in 14 games, he's in line for an even bigger year in 2016-17. The 6-foot-4, 215-pound Swedish blueliner is going to get a lot of minutes in Nashville's impressive blue line. There's also a chance he spends some time with P.K. Subban, who referred to Ekholm as a "stud" after their first preseason game together. Last season was Ekholm's year to establish himself, this is the year he'll assert himself as a higher-end NHL defenseman.
4. Robby Fabbri, St. Louis Blues: After an impressive rookie season, Fabbri should be looking at a bigger role in 2016-17. He had 18 goals in 72 games last season and then tied Vladimir Tarasenko for the team lead with 15 points in the playoffs. With St. Louis losing keys veterans and an injury that will sideline Jaden Schwartz early, the Blues are going to need Fabbri to step up in a big way right away. Elevated minutes and a more prominent role in the Blues' scoring attack, should lead to a big boost for Fabbri's point total in 2016-17.
5. David Pastrnak, Boston Bruins: After two years of solid production in limited action, the Bruins are going to need the 20-year-old Czech forward to step up in a big way. Pastrnak had 15 goals in 51 games last year and appears poised for a more established role this season. A top-six role seems certain for Pastrnak, who has some serious puck skills. He's averaged half a point per game in his career so far. If he gets regular time on a line with either Patrice Bergeron or David Krejci, as he should, that per-game rate should go up and he should be a key contributor to Boston's offensive attack.
6. Matt Dumba, Minnesota Wild: Towards the end of the Wild's season, Dumba was playing pretty substantial minutes. With new coach Bruce Boudreau in the mix now, that trend would appear likely to continue. Boudreau has had success with some of his younger defensemen in years past (think Hampus Lindholm and Sami Vatanen). With Dumba, the veteran coach has a player on the cusp of taking that next step. The former No. 7 overall draft pick has some solid offensive abilities and he showed an ability to throw his weight around a little more last year. After scoring 10 goals and putting up 26 points in 81 games last season, there's a good chance he's going to be a much more prominent player for the Wild right away this year.
7. Nikolaj Ehlers, Winnipeg Jets: While all eyes will be on No. 2 overall pick Patrik Laine, Ehlers could be in for a big year. He put up 15 goals and 38 points as a rookie last season and should be able to stick in Winnipeg's top-six. Whether that is on the first line with Mark Schiefele or the second line with Bryan Little, Ehlers will still end up with a quality NHL center to help him put up points. On top of that, he already showed improvement over the course of last season, finishing out the year with 25 points in his last 32 games. Now with the benefit of a year of experience, he should be ready to make a bigger impact in his second season.
8. Teuvo Teravainen, Carolina Hurricanes: After being traded from the Blackhawks, Teravainen should end up with a pretty sizable role in Carolina's young forward group. The 22-year-old put up 35 points in 78 games last season, his first as a full-time NHLer. The problem was that he never seemed to gain the full trust of Blackhawks coach Joel Qunneville. That led to uneven usage and being pulled all over the lineup. Hurricanes coach Bill Peters has no choice but to put some significant faith in Teravainen, whose skill set suggests a bright top-six future for him. It also doesn't hurt to have a young guy who already put his name on the Stanley Cup in the mix. For Teravainen, consistent usage might be all he needs to unlock his full potential.
9. Sam Reinhart, Buffalo Sabres: He spent all of last season in Jack Eichel's shadow and may always be second fiddle, but Reinhart had a really impressive rookie campaign. He put up 42 points, including 23 goals and finished the year with 13 points in his last 19 games. The 20-year-old seemed to get more comfortable as the year wore on. As that happened, his usage expanded. Now with a full year of experience under his belt and being part of a deeper forward lineup overall, Reinhart could have a big sophomore season for Buffalo.
10. Alexander Wennberg, Columbus Blue Jackets: Hidden by an early injury and the dreariness of a bad season in Columbus, Wennberg's game really took off late in the year. He ended up with 21 points in his last 25 games. It was just his second NHL season, but the then 21-year-old boosted his production by 20 points from his rookie campaign. Most of his points came off of assists, of which he had 32 last season. The Blue Jackets might not be great again this season, but Wennberg has a good chance of working his way into a more established role and being a key to getting the offense going again. On top of that, Wennberg is in a contract year as his entry-level deal expires after this season.
