With the NBA Draft now less than a month away, we're taking a look at a number of projected or likely first-round picks and comparing them to those who came before -- at the very same school. The comparison game is a go-to among fans, scouts, GMs and scribes, but for fun, we're going to narrow the gap to only looking at specific schools.
The Tar Heels have produced a lot of pros under Roy Williams, but the results vary. This is somewhat surprising. Over the decades, you could argue UNC is a top-three program in terms of creating all-timers at the NBA level. But while Roy Williams has won two national titles and gone to twice as many Final Fours in his 12-year tenure at North Carolina, truth is, the Tar Heels haven't been producing studs for pros.
There's been a handful of nice NBA players, but not one player to play for Williams at UNC has made an All-Star Game. With all of that in mind, where does a guy like Brice Johnson stack up? Johnson played for four years at Carolina. He had a tremendous senior season, including a game wherein he had 39 points and 23 rebounds.
Who is he most similar to? What is his most likely career trajectory? Let's take a look.
(Offensive rating and Player Efficiency Rating (PER) are from RealGM's player database. All measurements are via Draft Express' database. Height is measured with shoes on.)
UNC senior Brice Johnson
Dossier
Height: 6 feet, 10.5 inches
Weight: 209
Wingspan : 7 feet, .25 inches
Standing reach : 8 feet, 10.5 inches
Max vertical reach: 12 feet, 0.5 inches
Career college stat line: 11.6 ppg, 7.0 rpg, 1.1 bpg, 120.5 ORtg, 28.1 PER
Projected range in NBA draft : 25-34
Body-wise, his measurements most closely resemble: Ed Davis
Davis was a two-year role player who got drafted on potential as much as any other player (vs. his lack of production) in the Roy Williams era. Johnson's game is more dynamic and proven than Davis' was, but the two have very similar body types, or at least that's true when you look at Davis' measurements leading up to the 2010 Draft. He was less than an inch shorter, 18 pounds heavier, same wingspan, a half-inch longer in standing reach with the same maximum vertical reach. Davis is still in the NBA; he played 81 games but did not start any for Portland last season.
Stat-wise, most closely resembles: Marvin Williams
Marvin has the distinction of being a No. 2 pick ... after coming off the bench the entire season as a freshman. Speaks to how good that title-winning 2004-05 team was and what scouts thought of his future. Looking back, he wasn't top-three good for that draft (Chris Paul, Deron Willialms, Andrew Bogut) but he's right there with Danny Granger and Channing Frye in terms of career success and impact. In college, his line: 11.3 points, 6.6 boards, .7 assists in 22 minutes per game. Difference is, that's one year for him vs. a four-year average for Johnson.
Can be better than: Sean May, David Noel, Tyler Zeller
UNC's had a number of big men go in the first round who didn't ever really make an impact in the NBA. Johnson's improved defense and touch in the paint can prevent him from taking the same track. The clear issue is his weight and gangly figure. He needs at least 20 pounds of bulk. Or he becomes a pick-and-pop guy, though that has never been the forte of his game. Still, May, Noel and Zeller are Johnson's floor.
Probably won't be as good as: Harrison Barnes
Part of it is the new collective bargaining agreement for the NBA, part of it is Barnes' ever-improving game, but yeah, the guy is going to get more than $20 million per season this offseason. I don't see Johnson ever becoming that valuable nor the kind of guy who's a 2A/2B on a team, which is what Barnes would be on about 25 teams in the league. Barnes is averaging 10 points, 4.6 rebounds and 1.5 assists through four seasons with Golden State -- and that's with him being a late bloomer.
Most probable career arc/impact: Brandan Wright
Wright is going on his ninth year in the NBA, with a 20.5 PER and playing 17 minutes per game. He's quite simply a solid 10-year vet kind of player. Never sniffed an All-Star Game, but serves as a good No. 6-No. 10 guy throughout his career. It's a safe, likely projection for Johnson, who's a smart player and should have the skills to play in the modern style of the NBA while also possibly becoming a top-10 shot-blocker in the league by his fourth year.
UNC players drafted under Roy Williams
2015: J.P. Tokoto (58th)
2014: P.J.Hairston (26th)
2013: Reggie Bullock (25th)
2012: Harrison Barnes (seventh), Kendall Marshall (13th), John Henson (14th), Tyler Zeller (17th)
2011: N/A
2010: Ed Davis (13th)
2009: Tyler Hansbrough (13th), Ty Lawson (18th), Wayne Ellington (28th), Danny Green (46th)
2008: N/A
2007: Brandan Wright (eighth), Reyshawn Terry (44th)
2006: David Noel (39th)
2005: Marvin Williams (second), Raymond Felton (fifth), Sean May (13th), Rashad McCants (14th)
2004: N/A
OVERVIEW
Total players drafted: 19
Lottery picks: Nine
First round: 15
Average career college stat line of UNC first rounders : 11.9 ppg, 5.4 rpg, 2.3 apg, 25.1 mpg, 115.9 ORtg, 20.5 PER
Average career NBA stat line of UNC first rounders: 7.8 ppg, 3.5 rpg, 1.8 apg, 20.7 mpg, 106.4 ORtg, 13.5 PER
Total All-Star Games for all UNC players: 0
Average number of teams per player: 3.3
