Another really good chapter in the history of the always-entertaining Xavier-Butler rivalry was etched on Saturday. The Bulldogs, ranked 12th in the latest AP poll and playing at home, won 83-78 over No. 15 Xavier. Xavier is now 4-2 in games decided by five points or fewer this season.
This burst of a column is going to be about Xavier, but let me really quickly just give you the rundown on BU, since it did win the game. In my eyes, and when I crunch the bracket, Chris Holtmann's team has the resume of a No. 3 seed at this point. Butler's defeated Arizona, won on the road at Utah, took out Northwestern (which definitively has an NCAA tournament resume right now), and oh yeah it's knocked off Cincinnati, Indiana and then-undefeated Villanova. And now Xavier.
It's really impressive, and I can't wait to see how this team performs, no matter its seed, in the NCAAs. The 15-3 Bulldogs also proved on Saturday that they're one of the three best teams in the Big East.
Xavier's conceivably No. 4 in the league, but we can now start to pick apart this team's resume and ask: What have the Musketeers done, and what will they do to show us they're worthy not just of being ranked, but of at-large consideration?
Xavier's now 13-4 overall, with a 3-2 league record. It will probably drop out of the polls on Monday, which would mark the first time in more than a year that X isn't ranked. Chris Mack's team is in the midst of its toughest three-game stretch of the season, and it's 0-2 so far. The first loss came at Villanova on Tuesday, a 79-54 beatdown. X rallied and looked solid, mostly, in its five-point defeat against the Bulldogs on Saturday. But, still, a loss.
Both losses are understandable, but unlike other ranked teams, Xavier's not clinging to a heck of a lot at the moment. And its opportunities for important wins are dwindling.
Next up is a home game against 17-1 Creighton. It's a short turnaround. The Muskies will host the Jays on Monday night. To me, it's one of the biggest games of the week. The Bluejays are enjoying their best start in school history and have their eyes on stealing a No. 1 seed. Xavier, which was ranked seventh in the preseason, can't claim the same.
As of this posting, the Musketeers rank 15th in RPI, 22nd at KPI, 25th at KenPom and Sagarin, 40th at LRMC. The computers have a lot of disagreement over where to slot this team. Objectively, though, Xavier's best wins have come against schools that would not likely qualify for the NCAA Tournament if it started today.
The Musketeers' four best wins:
- Clemson (on a neutral court)
- Utah (at Xavier)
- Wake Forest (at Xavier)
- Georgetown (on the road)
So where does that leave Xavier? In a pressing spot, but with good chances to up its resume. The Creighton game is vital, and then Xavier makes a trip to Omaha on Feb. 4. (It would be so very Big East-like if Xavier stumbled against Nova and Butler but wound up sweeping the Bluejays. Watch it happen.)
Xavier gets its chances on its home floor against Villanova on Feb. 11 and Butler on Feb. 26. And there's the terrific rivalry game at Cincinnati. A tough ask for Xavier to take one in Fifth Third, but that game is always worth the watch.
I think the Musketeers will wind up getting into the Big Dance with plenty of room to spare, but right now the team's in a tighter spot than most would have expected. If anything, Xavier qualifies as an NCAA Tournament sleeper at this point, and ironically, that's been a role the program has thrived under many times before.
