Houston put the American Athletic Conference on the big stage, and like UCF before them, the newly-formed league showed it can topple Power Five competition. Houston's got Tom Herman back and there's a ton of momentum behind the program, but Vegas Insider's over/under win totals show not much separation from the other title contenders in the conference.
The AAC appears to be operating in tiers for 2016. On the top tier, there's Houston, USF and Temple -- all team projected to finish with at least eight wins. The next tier has four teams listed at 6.5 for their win total and three at either 5 or 5.5. Basically, the whole middle of the conference is a toss-up. I feel confident that Houston will win the conference, but there's much less confidence in the picks as you work your way through the league.
Buyer (for entertainment purposes, only) beware.
Houston, 9.5 (Over -135, Under +115): Quarterback Greg Ward Jr. (38 total touchdowns in 2015) has to be healthy for the Cougars to recapture the magic of the Peach Bowl season. But if that happens, I like Houston's chances to continue carrying themselves in a manner that is not to be topped in the American. Virtual home game in week one is soon much fun. After that, they win nine in a row before facing Louisville and Memphis (in Memphis) in back-to-back weeks. If the Coogs do pull the upset against the Sooners, it'll be 10 in a row and I'll be cashing my ticket before Thanksgiving. Pick: Over
USF, 8.5 (Over -110, Under -110): It's not crazy to buy into Willie Taggart now. Taggart's Florida roots and successful rise as a coach from an assistant at Stanford to coach at Western Kentucky made it easy (and popular) to project a resurgence for the Bulls' program. It took a few years to move things to into place, but you won't find a more terrifying offensive backfield in the conference than Quinton Flowers and Marlon Mack.
Those two each averaged over six yards per carry on the ground; the former threw for 22 touchdowns, just 8 interceptions and ran for 1,000 yards with 12 more rushing touchdowns, while the latter ran for 1,000 yards for the second straight season. Florida State, Syracuse and Temple will be tough, but winning just one of those games should guarantee nine wins for the Bulls. Pick: Over
Temple, 8.5 (Over -120, Under +100): This is the part of the post where I tell you about Jahad Thomas, who is incredibly explosive and exciting to watch. His highlight tape is awesome, and it was the MVP of our running back video game ratings, courtesy of Robby Kalland and Ben Kercheval. He's got a great highlight reel, but he could be even better with a little more consistency. Sharing the backfield with P.J. Walker, the senior quarterback coming off a much-improved season in 2015, only makes Thomas better and more dangerous.
OK, now back to win totals. Is there a game on Temple's schedule you think they can't win? Road games at Penn State and Memphis will be tough and USF game will probably determine the AAC East but if a few things break right for the Owls it's not crazy to think they'll be a 10-win team again in 2016. Pick: Over
Cincinnati, 6.5 (Over -130, Under -110): Gunner Kiel is back, but is he healthy? I'm tempted to feel comfortable either way with Cincinnati's quarterback after watching Hayden Moore's incredible performance off the bench against Memphis last season, throwing for 557 yards and 4 touchdowns before ultimately falling short in a shootout. The Bearcats' are one of these teams that can get caught in a wild shootout on a Thursday or Friday night that has you glued to the game, but too often this team has the wrong turnover at the wrong time. Tommy Tuberville could catch a few breaks and suddenly be in a position to crash the New Year's Six if they can beat Houston and USF early, but right now it's not looking favorable. Pick: Under
Memphis, 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110): Mike Norvell, like Justin Fuente, was a successful offensive coordinator ready to make the jump to a prominent head coaching job. Unlike Fuente, Norvell inherits a program that has gotten to used to winning over the last couple of years. Ole Miss and Temple back-to-back is tough. The home stretch will determine whether Memphis finishes with 7+, with SMU, USF, Cincinnati and Houston in November. Unfortunately, the most recent data point we have for Memphis closing the season is the Tigers losing four of their last five in 2015. Pick: Under
Navy, 6.5 (Over -110, Under -110): The Keenan Reynolds era had the perfect send-off, an 11-win record-setting senior season as Navy stormed through conference, falling one win short of a division title. Tago Smith has been backing up the star trigger man for a few years and is more than capable of leading a productive offense moving forward. The issue, in terms of picking the win total, is up front on the offensive line. I'll roll with Navy for six wins -- but that's it. Pick: Under
Tulsa, 6.5 (Over -120, Under +100) : Tulsa's scorched-earth offense led to a fight over Philip Montgomery's assistants, got Sterlin Gilbert the offensive coordinator job at Texas and showed that they could be every pit as potent as Houston or Memphis. The problem, most weeks, was that the defense wasn't stopping anyone after those touchdowns. I picked under on some of the other teams listed here at 6.5 because of the group I have the most confidence in Tulsa taking a step forward in 2016. Pick: Over
ECU, 5.5 (Over +105, Under -125): Things are rocking and rolling in Greenville. New coach Scottie Montgomery is in town after helping lead Duke in one of the most successful stretches in school history, and ECU has both Kid Rock and Eric Church playing in its stadium right before the start of the football season. The quarterback position has seen a ton of flux with transfers, and now Philip Nelson (a walk-on last year) has found himself in a competition for starter's snaps in big-time college football. ECU should be a bowl team, but for the purposes of keeping balance in these picks you have to acknowledge the Pirates' nonconference schedule (NC State, South Carolina, Virginia Tech), which is the toughest in the AAC. Pick: Under
UCF, 5 (Over -110, Under -110): UCF played a ton of young players last season during a miserable end to the George O'Leary era. Scott Frost's energy is infectious and those same players will have a chance to get in a ton of reps and progress even faster with Frost's up-tempo attack. Pick: Over
UConn, 5 (Over +100, Under -120): Knocking off Houston, at home in November, felt like a big moment for UConn under Bob Diaco. In this new and still fluid landscape of the AAC, UConn is starting to look like the team most likely to repeat that feat. Diaco and the Huskies are striving for more than that, but as an outsider it makes those cold afternoon kickoffs even more enticing. I'm predicting they'll get someone this year, but fall short of the postseason. Pick: Under
SMU, 3.5 (Over -120, Under +100): The over is juiced here, so don't be surprised if this rises to four at some point, and there I'd probably say push. SMU had quarters, even longer stretches of games where they were right in the battle but often looked out-classed over 60 minutes in conference play. Chad Morris and this team will all take a step forward this year, but it's going to be a year of lose small instead of lose big. Pick: Over
Tulane, 3.5 (Over -110, Under -110): A 4-8 record is definitely a reasonable finish for Tulane in year one with Willie Fritz, but I had to pick against it in a toss-up game against SMU. Tulane hosts the game, but SMU might just be a step ahead with Chad Morris at this point, or that point in the season. Tulane can get to three in nonconference play, but wins the American might be hard to come by this fall. Very, very limited confidence here but have to make a pick to balance out the count for the league. Pick: Under
