No matter where you look or how you cut it, you can’t get around the fact that Dustin Johnson is the favorite for the 2017 Masters. It has been that way for weeks, and it will remain that way when the tournament starts on Thursday. As of Monday, here are the top 11 favorites to win this year’s Masters, according to Bovada.

  • Dustin Johnson: 11-2
  • Jordan Spieth: 7-1
  • Rory McIlroy: 8-1
  • Hideki Matsuyama: 18-1
  • Jason Day: 18-1
  • Jon Rahm: 18-1
  • Rickie Fowler: 20-1
  • Justin Rose: 25-1
  • Justin Thomas: 25-1
  • Phil Mickelson: 25-1
  • Henrik Stenson: 28-1

This is probably about fair. It sure is odd to see Rory McIlroy as the third-biggest favorite for a major championship, but D.J. is on another planet and Spieth owns this tournament. The name that might surprise you is Rahm, but his pedigree is impeccable and he’s a D.J. away from having three wins on the year.

But how do these odds look different than, say, at the end of 2016? What number could you have gotten Johnson at right after Christmas? Bookmaker.eu, which has slightly different current odds than Bovada, compiled a cool list showing how golfers’ odds have changed over the four months leading into the Masters. The most interesting ones include Johnson and Rahm. 

Jon Rahm Odds

12/31/16 - +7000
1/31/17 - +3500
Current - +2050

Danny Willett Odds

12/31/16 - +6600
1/31/17 - +6000
Current - +10250

Bubba Watson Odds

12/31/16 - +2000
1/31/17 - +2500
Current - +2800

Dustin Johnson Odds

12/31/16 - +1050
1/31/17 - +1075
2/31/17 - +900
Current - +605

Jason Day Odds

12/31/16 - +900
1/31/17 - +950
Current - +1600

Justin Thomas Odds

12/31/16 - +8500
1/31/17 - +2250
Current - +3730

Look at the bottom fall out on Johnson as he won his three in a row at the Genesis Open in February to the WGC-Mexico Championship and WGC-Dell Match Play in March. That 11-2 or 6-1 or whatever number you’re looking at at your book is pretty amazing. It’s not a Tiger-like number, but it’s not far off. Before Christmas, Jordan Spieth, Jason Day or Rory McIlroy was considered the favorite.

 Also, it seems like there is some value with somebody like a Jason Day or a Bubba Watson. Both have high odds, neither has been playing all that well but both know how to win major championships.