In the modern landscape of professional golf, it seems like a ridiculous concept to believe a single player -- among the several hundred who will tee it up at the four major championships this year -- could win all four of them in succession.
Every year after the Masters, only one golfer is capable of achieving this feat. This year, that golfer happens to not just be the No. 1 player in the world but somebody who is having the greatest run of golf we have seen -- at least from a scoring standpoint -- since Tiger Woods.
Will Scottie Scheffler win the grand slam? Will he add the PGA Championship, U.S. Open and Open Championship to his green jacket (and Players Championship victory)?
The answer is almost certainly that he will not -- the odds are inherently against him -- but there is a glimmer of hope given he is by far the best player on the planet right now, and he's playing truly dominant golf. It's an alluring proposition.
Let's take a look at the raw numbers because what Scheffler has done so far this year is an absolute joke.
Strokes gained since Jan. 1
Minimum six events played
| Golfer | SG T2G/Round | SG/Round |
|---|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 3.4 | 3.4 |
| Xander Schauffele | 2.3 | 2.5 |
| Joaquin Niemann | 1.8 | 2.2 |
| Ludvig Aberg | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Bryson DeChambeau | 2.4 | 1.9 |
| Rory McIlroy | 1.6 | 1.9 |
| Jon Rahm | 1.1 | 1.8 |
| Wyndham Clark | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| Matthieu Pavon | 0.9 | 1.7 |
| Sahith Theegala | 1.0 | 1.6 |
To look at this a different way, Sahith Theegla has been 1.6 shots better than the field during events he's played (adjusted for field strength). That's good for 10th in the world since Jan. 1. As for Scheffler? Well ... he's been twice as good.
Truncating this statistic to big-time events -- in this case, the four majors and The Players Championship -- provides a similarly revealing look at Scheffler's dominance of late.
SG at majors, The Players
Since 2020
| Golfer | Total SG |
|---|---|
| Scottie Scheffler | 216.4 |
| Jon Rahm | 172.1 |
| Xander Schauffele | 162.2 |
| Collin Morikawa | 156.1 |
| Rory McIlroy | 154.5 |
| Cameron Smith | 152.6 |
| Hideki Matsuyama | 148.9 |
| Viktor Hovland | 131.4 |
| Shane Lowry | 122.8 |
| Patrick Reed | 122.4 |
What is revealed here is hardly shocking. These golfers have been excellent at major events, and yet, Scheffler has been so much better than any of his peers. It is clear in looking at the data that we are dealing with an outlier, but can an outlier win all four majors in a year? That will be an incredibly difficult endeavor.
It will take at least a bit of luck. Heck, it takes that just to win one major. To win all four in a calendar year will require a borderline miracle.
Consider that four majors in a career is considered monumental. It's what Rory McIlroy has achieved to date and more than Jordan Spieth has individually. It's also more than Justin Thomas, Justin Rose, Rickie Fowler, Xander Schauffele and Tommy Fleetwood have won -- combined.
Is Scheffler actually that good?
There is also the mental and emotional toll a slam bid can take on a player. It wore Spieth down in 2015 when he took it all the way to the 70th hole of the third major. Scheffler is already heavily scrutinized. This would extend that scrutiny wall outside of the usual outlets.
Oddsmakers say he is a 4-1 favorite to win the PGA Championship and only slightly longer to win the U.S. Open. He finished T2 and 3rd, respectively, in those events a year ago but has not played the venues they're going to this year. Scheffler is also a 6-1 favorite to win The Open Championship. Taking it all further, his odds are 65-1 to actually win the grand slam. By comparison, Tyrrell Hatton and Patrick Reed were both 65-1 just to win the Masters -- and they finished T9 and T12, respectively.
So, will Scheffler win the grand slam?
Most likely, one of three events will transpire to prevent him from doing so.
- Scheffler fails to catch the luck he needs at some point over the next 216 holes.
- Scheffler's putter fails to stand up to a grand slam bid.
- Scheffler's level of play -- either mental or physical -- will slip a bit simply because he has created a nearly impossible standard to meet on a tournament-by-tournament basis.
Let's hope I'm wrong because, well, Scheffler is a great champion and a hell of a lot of fun to write about. And there is nothing like chasing a grand slam in golf. Nothing.
The thrill of Spieth taking the slam deep into the summer of 2015 was extraordinary. It is golf's holy grail. Jack Nicklaus could not accomplish it. Neither could Arnold Palmer. Ben Hogan tried 1953, but the PGA Championship and The Open overlapped, so he never got his chance. Not even Tiger Woods could accomplish it, though he came the closest with the Tiger Slam -- serving as the reigning champion all four majors simultaneously.
It is likely that Scheffler will fade from this historic quest, just as everyone before him. But the kernel of hope that he could do something that has literally never been accomplished -- knowing his chances of doing so are better than anyone not named Tiger Woods in the last quarter century -- make this narrative one to to follow closely ahead of next months' PGA Championship.
