The Fightin' Showalters are having a rough go of it lately. The Orioles entered Wednesday with a 14-16 record over their last 30 games -- a stretch that, because it coincided with good runs from the Blue Jays and Red Sox, left the O's in third place in the American League East. Factor in the Mariners' recent surge, and Baltimore's lead in the second wild card race is now two games.
As if Birdland lacked reasons for being blue, the news got worse on Tuesday. Chris Tillman, the constant in the O's rotation, was placed on the disabled list with an inflamed shoulder.
Chris Tillman on going to DL "We're trying to be safe, get this thing in the rear-view mirror. That way I'm not fighting it all year."
— Rich Dubroff (@RichDubroffCSN) August 24, 2016
Though built like a large and travel-accommodating bird, Tillman doesn't inspire the warm rotation anchor-like feelings of other teams' top starters -- in other words, scouts don't blush at his offerings. Yet Tillman has been pivotal to the O's success. He leads Baltimore's rotation in ERA+; has averaged the most innings per start; and has the highest quality-start rate, too. Basically, Tillman has been the O's best, most reliable starter.
So how will Buck Showalter and company survive these ensuing two weeks without him? Mostly by hoping -- foremost for the continued ascent of two homegrown starters.
Kevin Gausman doesn't have Tillman's shiny won-lost record -- he does have a prolonged case of bleacherballitis -- but he's nipping on Tillman's heels in most every meaningful category. Most promisingly, he's flourished during the second half. Gausman has recorded a quality start in five of his eight offerings, including Tuesday's effort against the Nationals, in which he threw six shutout innings.
Whereas Gausman has spent all season showing that he's worth the old hype, Dylan Bundy has only recently began that process for himself. Since being shifted into the rotation in mid-July, Bundy has notched a 3.56 ERA and three times as many strikeouts as walks in eight starts. The Orioles have eased him into the rotation -- the 94 pitches he threw earlier this week were the most he's tossed in a start -- but that's okay, since Baltimore's stellar bullpen is ready, willing, and able to pick up the slack.
Of course, there's also the logistics component of replacing Tillman. Gausman and Bundy's sustained gains might help offset his losses, but the Orioles still have to turn to another pitcher every fifth day. This is where the situation becomes ugly. Rotation depth has never been a strength for the O's under Dan Duquette's watch, and many of his recent attempted fixes -- Ubaldo Jimenez, Yovani Gallardo, and Wade Miley -- have faltered. Predictably, one of those, Jimenez, will serve as Tillman's stand-in.
Only God knows what Jimenez will bring over the next few starts, but we can make an educated guess: volatility. Jimenez was exiled from the rotation after the trade deadline with a seasonal ERA over 7.00, and his handful of relief appearances didn't inspire much confidence. Still, if there's reason for optimism, it's this: nobody ever knows what to expect from Jimenez. Some reason, huh?
As such, you wonder if Duquette will look to the trade market for a short-term fix. There isn't much available, but then, that's true of Baltimore's current predicament, too. For now, the Orioles can only hope -- that their young starters excel; that Jimenez doesn't implode; that Tillman returns as soon as possible; and, most importantly, that they still possess a playoff share when he does.
