We've already been treated to a crazy week of baseball that started with a doubleheader on Monday to conclude the regular season. Unfortunately, only one of the Wild Card Series in the playoff bracket went to a do-or-die Game 3, but most of the games themselves were amazing theater and gave us just a quick glimpse of the madness that we're set to see over the course of the next three or so weeks.
Remember, this is the first year without a 100-win team since 2014. The 98-win Dodgers led the way, but there were six teams winning 91-95 games. There was parity among the winning teams, but that doesn't mean there was a lack of good teams. There were fewer elite teams and the void was filled with extra good-to-great teams.
In theory, that makes the playoffs that much more competitive. That also makes this job incredibly difficult.
Prior to the Wild Card Series, I was tasked with ranking the 12 playoff teams in order of which had the best chance to win the World Series. The teams ranked fifth (Astros), eighth (Brewers), ninth (Orioles) and 12th (Braves, which felt like a gimme) are gone.
I'm not just going to leave the teams in the exact same order moving forward. First off, things have happened since then. Secondly, ranking wild-card teams before the first series means they have an extra step compared to the bye teams. That extra step has now been removed.
Let's get to it.
1. New York Yankees
My comments from last ranking still apply, but the Yankees now face their easiest road in a long time on the AL side of the playoffs. This isn't an insult to the remaining AL teams -- though I'm sure it'll be taken that way -- but a statement informed with facts.
Remaining on the AL side are the 92-win Guardians, 86-win Royals and 86-win Tigers. The Yankees went 13-6 with a +37 run differential against those teams in the regular season. The Royals had a losing record when they weren't playing the worst team in modern baseball history (the White Sox).
In 2022, the Yankees had to deal with the AL dynasty Astros. In 2021, they were a wild card. In 2019, it was the 107-win Astros. In 2018, the 108-win Red Sox. In 2017, the 101-win Astros. In 2015, they were a wild card.
By any objective measure, this is truly the easiest road the Yankees have had in the playoffs since 2012, and, again, that isn't insulting the teams in their way. I didn't use anything but facts to illustrate the point.
2. San Diego Padres
The Padres were third in the previous ranking but they've been bumped up now because they didn't stumble in the Wild Card Series. The Joe Musgrove elbow injury is worrisome, for sure, but the Padres have three great starters left in Dylan Cease, Michael King and Yu Darvish. Martín Pérez was good down the stretch for them, too. The triumvirate of back-end bullpen studs have shown cracks recently, but have enough talent to lock things down regularly moving forward.
And that lineup has so many different ways to beat you. How about the nine-hole hitting Kyle Higashioka going deep twice so far?
I thought about putting the Padres first, but the Musgrove elbow and the NL side being so much stronger influenced me.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
As noted in the last rankings, the Phillies were mediocre down the stretch. The question is if they can just flip the switch, especially after having several days off.
If they do, they'd have an argument as the easy and obvious No. 1 on this list. The have four All-Star starting pitchers and a bullpen with upward of five power arms capable of looking like shutdown relievers. The lineup is capable of being scary 1-9, too.
They could also lose this NLDS against the Mets, of course. That's just how small samples work. Remember, they stopped hitting and lost four of five in the NLCS to the 84-win Diamondbacks last year. It happens.
The Phillies have all the talent they need, though, to win the World Series.
4. Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were second in last rankings and have been jumped by the Padres and Phillies. Why the Phillies when both had byes? Because I think the Padres are going to beat the Dodgers, of course. Logically speaking, the Phillies have an easier road than the Dodgers, so they leap over them.
Shouldn't the Dodgers then be ranked lower? Nah. If they beat the Padres, they have a great chance to win the title.
It'll be interesting to see how this series unfolds. There's a world where Jack Flaherty, Yoshinobu Yamamoto and Walker Buehler all look dominant while the bullpen settles in behind them. If that happens with the upside of this offense supporting them, watch out.
5. Cleveland Guardians
This is the best pitching staff in the majors. The rotation doesn't blow you away, but Tanner Bibee and Matthew Boyd are better than many people think. The bullpen is ridiculous and here in the ALDS, that could well be enough. There's a day off between Games 1 and 2 and then again between Games 2 and 3. The Guardians will only need three starting pitchers even if this goes five games and they could lean on heavy workloads from their top relievers, including All-World closer Emmanuel Clase.
The offense leaves a little something to be desired, but it's much more average than bad. It has a superstar in José Ramírez leading the charge and he's the type that could carry an offense for a month.
The Tigers will be a trendy "heat check" pick in this series, but I strongly like the Guardians.
6. New York Mets
The NL side right now is totally stacked. If this team gets by the Phillies -- which is a tall order -- either the Dodgers or Padres await in the NLCS.
The Mets are pretty stellar in their own right at the moment. Since June 2, they are 67-39, including the playoffs. That's a 162-game pace of 103 wins, for a point of reference.
The Mets can line up Luis Severino for Game 2 and Sean Manaea for Game 3 of the NLDS. The bullpen can be shaky at times, but Edwin Díaz also has the ability to go into Terminator mode. And the offense has a swagger at this point that says don't you dare ever count them out of a game in the late innings.
7. Detroit Tigers
I jumped the Tigers over the Royals here because the Royals have to play the superior Yankees and the Tigers are pretty familiar with the Guardians. The Guardians won the season series 7-6 with a +10 run differential, but none of those games came in the season's final two months -- when the Tigers got awesome.
Including the playoffs, the Tigers are 33-13 since Aug. 10. Like the Mets, they also exude never-say-die vibes in the late innings, though they have a lot less power and that's part of what gets them ranked below the Mets.
So how far can these Tigers ride the good vibes, chaos pitching and exceptional baserunning? The longer the series get, the harder it'll be with basically one trustable starting pitcher and then a ton of bullpen.
Tarik Skubal gets to potentially start twice in the ALDS, though, and it looks like he'd line for Games 2 and 5. If the Tigers can steal one of the other games, Game 5 in Cleveland could really be something else.
This is a must-watch series anyway.
8. Kansas City Royals
The Royals remain dangerous due to their rotation and Bobby Witt Jr. He could well play like the best player in baseball throughout the playoffs. He's already impacted the postseason. I like that Vinnie Pasquantino is back and already had an impact. The Royals also only scored three runs in two games. That leads us back to the rotation with Michael Wacha, Cole Ragans and Seth Lugo here in the ALDS. Lucas Erceg looks to have shaken off his brief slump and is great again. The rest of the bullpen is starting to fall in line here.
Still, the Royals had two separate seven-game losing streaks in the final month of the season and barely squeaked by what now looks like it was an imploding Orioles team. The Yankees went 5-2 against the Royals this year and that included taking two of three in September.
I would not count the Royals out, as every single one of these teams has a legitimately decent shot to win the World Series. The Royals just have a really tough matchup here.
A final note for Royals fans to remember: Most people would've ranked the D-backs last of the eight teams in divisional series last year. It wouldn't have even really been an argument -- while this time it was a very tough decision -- and they ended up hoisting a pennant.
This season has been wide open from start to finish. Last here doesn't really mean much.
