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  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +382
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 MLB ML Picks
    ATL
    +104
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 19 @ 11:50am

    Analysis

    I feel like the wrong team is favored here. No Ronald Acuna of course, but over the last two weeks, the Braves are crushing at home (.946 OPS) and hitting right-handers well (.846). The Rangers’ road OPS split is 300 points lower. Nathan Eovaldi is actually a worse day game pitcher and he’s given up three-plus runs in eight of his nine starts. Braves starter Grant Holmes has a 2.97 ERA in that span, so we’ll look past the hair.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +2187
    (70%)
    45-19 in Last 64 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    N. McLean
    Under 5.5
    -140
    Hits Allowed
    Picked: Jul 19 @ 11:19am

    Analysis

    DraftKings. Nolan McLean is under this line in 15/19 starts this season. Between his .207 batting average allowed (.216 xBA) and 8.7% walk rate, the Mets rookie only allows a hit every 5.5 batters faced, or every 22 pitches thrown. The Phillies lineup today only features four hitters with a batting average above .238 against righties this season.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #2
    +1452
    (64%)
    123-68-1 in Last 192 MLB Picks
    ATL +1.5
    -160
    Spread
    Picked: Jul 19 @ 11:56am

    Analysis

    If you ever wonder why I play +1.5 frequently -- granted at inflated prices -- last night's Braves game was why. Thought an outright win was in the bag for a while there, but it took a meaningless bottom of the seventh run for us to cash and stop me from breaking a lot of stuff, probably my hand included. Not sure if excellent Rangers closer Jacob Latz is available after throwing 1.1 innings last night but hopefully that isn't even relevant. Starter Nate Eovaldi has given up at least three runs in eight of his past nine. Counterpart Grant Holmes has allowed one earned over 14 innings in his past three. Our model has the ATL winning kinda comfortably. That would be swell.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +382
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 MLB ML Picks
    PIT
    +100
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 19 @ 11:56am

    Analysis

    Paul Skenes against a Guardians offense that’s 29th in scoring, 28th in average and 27th in home runs? I know Skenes isn’t his usual dominant self, and he’s really had issues in day games. But the Pirates are the No. 1-hitting offense on Sundays all season and in July has a .906 OPS vs. left-handers. Guardians LHP Joey Cantillo is on a hot streak, but a top-tier offense with Skenes at plus money is worth a gamble.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +382
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 MLB ML Picks
    CHW
    -112
    Money Line
    WIN
    Picked: Jul 19 @ 11:45am

    Analysis

    Sean Burke has a 2.92 road ERA and a 2.90 ERA in his last seven games overall. The bullpen behind him owns a 1.70 ERA the last two weeks. That trends well for the White Sox against a Blue Jays offense that’s been highly inconsistent. Chicago had scored nine-plus runs in three of four before Saturday’s 1-0 loss. It should find moments vs. Trey Yesavage, another inconsistent piece of Toronto’s puzzling season.

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