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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    Severance Pays
    CHC
    -185
    Money Line
    Picked: Sep 11 @ 7:19am

    Analysis

    In my opinion, one of the biggest home-field advantage situations in the majors, if not the biggest, is when the Cubs are hosting one of these Friday matinees and they were off Thursday while the opponent played Thursday night and has the super-quick turnaround. That's the case here, although I will say the surging Pirates only had to travel across Chicago (finished sweep at White Sox) if they even changed hotels. But between that huge edge, now not having to face All-Star pitcher Braxton Ashcraft and having massive motivation still to earn that top WC spot. Well, I don't know what to say folks. It's baseball so anything can happen, but you can't lose a game like this Cubbies. Every possible edge it would seem.
  • expert headshot
    Micah Roberts
    #5
    +623
    (60%)
    25-17 in Last 42 MLB ML Picks
    PIT
    +170
    Money Line
    Picked: Sep 11 @ 1:19pm

    Analysis

    The Pirates have won nine of their last 11 games, including the last four, to move within 4.5 games of the last NL wild card spot. The Cubs have lost four in a row but sit safe in the NL wild card race at +2.5. The Pirates are an interesting look right now because they're playing like they were supposed to back in April with the high hopes for 2026. Are they alive? I don't know, but I do know the bats have all aligned together, and they get key hits when they have to. Shota Imanaga hasn't won back-to-back starts since July 25th. The Pirates will try to win with the bullpen opening the game. Pirates to win.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    #1
    +2432
    (68%)
    49-23 in Last 72 MLB ML Picks
    WAS
    -149
    Money Line
    Picked: Sep 11 @ 12:32am

    Analysis

    I usually don't like laying this much juice for a money line pick but I can't resist backing Cade Cavalli and his Nationals at home on Friday. Since the All-Star Break, Washington is 5-0 at home when Cavalli pitches. Overall, the right hander has a 6-2 record at home and gets a relatively soft matchup in the worst team in the American League. With no innings cap on him, look for another quality start from Cavalli and the Nationals to end their seven game losing streak.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +1515
    (58%)
    114-81 in Last 195 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    C. Cavalli
    Over 6.5
    -130
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Sep 11 @ 8:21am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Cade Cavalli is on an absolute tear - since the all star break the righty has pitched to a 2.05 ERA, with a 31.8% K%. He’s cleared this strikeout line in eight of those contests, including each of his last six. He’ll now face the Angels whom over the last month have a 27% strikeout rate and just a .643 OPS against righties. Cavalli should roll today - I have him projected closer to eight strikeouts.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +215
    (67%)
    14-7 in Last 21 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    C. Cavalli
    Over 6.5
    -125
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Sep 11 @ 10:45am

    Analysis

    Being on the road for nine straight days now, the Angels are on a long east coast trip and things can get ominous at this point in the season. Cavalli has excelled against lefties for strikeouts but has been better vs. righties of late, and he may get a couple of extra lefties in the bottom of the order which could provide a huge boost. Cavalli has bumped up the swinging strike rate to lefties above 15% in the last month, but to righties the overall K rate is high, even if the underlying stuff has lacked a bit of late. Still, he should be able to grab strikeouts tonight in what makes for a softer matchup.

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