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  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    +368
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 NCAAB ATS Picks
    UMASS -11.5
    -120
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 12 @ 3:13pm

    Analysis

    It’s still early to use metrics but this game could get ugly in the turnover department. UMass lives off of pressuring the ball and creating turnovers. Meanwhile, Le Moyne had 24 turnovers against Bowling Green and 18 versus Xavier. The other issue for Le Moyne is they really only play six guys. I expect UMass’ pressure defense to wear them down and get a lot of easy buckets off steals. This line might move against us but I’m good with 11.5. I make the line -16. Bet UMass up to -15.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    #1
    +2613
    (57%)
    108-80-1 in Last 189 NFL Picks
    NE -10.5
    -120
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 10 @ 9:47am

    Analysis

    The Jets enter this matchup on a two-game winning streak, but nothing about the win over Cleveland should give us confidence in their offense. Without a 42-yard screen pass touchdown the Jets had zero net passing yards, and it's the third time this season they've been under 55 net passing yards. The Patriots rank fourth in yards per rush allowed, and they don't have to worry about getting beat by the pass in this game. So the question becomes whether they score enough points to cover. A bad Browns offense got one fewer first down against the new-look Jets defense than the Bengals, so I don't think that'll be a problem with Drake Maye look to make an MVP statement in primetime.
  • expert headshot
    Will Brinson
    #4
    +1007
    (56%)
    31-24 in Last 55 NFL Picks
    NE -12.5
    -115
    Spread
    Picked: Nov 12 @ 1:08pm

    Analysis

    This line has been flying since it opened closer to 10 and it doesn't like it will stop moving between now and kickoff on Thursday. It's just a horrible matchup for the Jets, coming off a luck box win at home in Week 10, going to play a white-hot division opponent on a short week. The Patriots don't let anyone run and the Jets can't pass the ball. New England should get a lead early and feed their running backs, forcing Justin Fields to drop back a ton which won't lead to anything good for the Jets.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +615
    (100%)
    6-0 in Last 6 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Hall
    Under 59.5
    -116
    Rushing Yards
    Picked: Nov 12 @ 2:30pm

    Analysis

    The Jets are likely to be playing from behind for a significant portion of this game, and I expect Hall's rushing volume to be limited as a result. He's been able to post big numbers with low volume against the Dolphins and Cowboys, but this Patriots rush defense is a different beast altogether. Not only are they allowing an NFL-best 57.5 rushing yards to running backs per game, but Sean Tucker's 53 yards last week is the first time any RB has cracked 50 rushing yards against them. That includes giving up 49 to James Cook and 46 to Bijan Robinson in tight games, which this is not expected to be.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +479
    (75%)
    6-2 in Last 8 SALAB ML Picks
    SALAB
    -185
    Money Line
    WIN
    Picked: Nov 12 @ 9:34pm

    Analysis

    Note the time, how to watch and location Thursday: 11 a.m. ET, YouTube and something called the McArthur Center in St. Petersburg. Florida -- not Russia. Although the Russian St. Pete is probably more desirable says someone who lived in Tampa for many years. I have never heard of the McArthur Center (might be Eckerd College), but it probably has never heard of me, either. Eye test and I'm 1-0 on those. This feels low. I am familiar with the Chips, who just lost by 31 at Bradley last time out. USA is 3-0 and already beat a better MAC team in Toledo. Neutral sites/mornings can always go sideways, but there's no doubt in my mind that South Alabama is the much better team.

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