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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +180
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 MLB Picks
    TOR +1.5
    -184
    Spread
    Picked: Apr 11 @ 11:28pm

    Analysis

    The wrong team is favored Sunday and it's that simple. So I'll take the gift even at this number. And if it was a newsletter writing day for me, this would be a hammer parlay leg at +1.5. I don't get it. Yes, the Twins have played better than expected so far and yes Taj Bradley has been really good. But this is one of those spots where the defending AL champions need a win because a major tough roadie is up next. I do believe in those sorts of things. And the Jays are off Monday and the Twins not so that may affect the bullpens a bit. I think you are fine playing +1 (or ML) but I'll take the gift.
  • expert headshot
    Larry Hartstein
    +2525
    (70%)
    51-22 in Last 73 LAA ML Picks
    LAA
    -104
    Money Line
    Picked: Apr 12 @ 1:27am

    Analysis

    The Angels have won all three of Jose Soriano's starts, which is no surprise given his 0.45 ERA and 0.65 WHIP. Soriano's dominance appears to be sustainable given his increased velocity and improved knuckle-curve. Andrew Abbott has been solid for the host Reds. But the Halos' offense has performed better lately, ranking 10th in OPS over the past seven days compared to Cincy's 21st ranking. Take the Angels in Sunday's rubber game.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +349
    (67%)
    8-4 in Last 12 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    J. Soriano
    Over 16.5
    -118
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Apr 12 @ 8:02am

    Analysis

    DraftKings / Caesar’s. Jose Soriano has come out of the gate as one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball thus far. With only one run and seven hits allowed across his 20 innings, Soriano has cleared this outs line in all three starts. He’s been able to miss more bats this season while maintaining an elite groundball rate. The Reds are an ideal opponent for his efficiency as they’ve struggled against righties, with a .620 OPS, and against ground ball pitchers (.541 OPS). Soriano should see 5-6 righties today, the side of the platoon that is 1/30 off of him so far this season. I’d bet this to over 17.5 outs.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    Amags
    player headshot
    J. Soriano
    Over 16.5
    -118
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Apr 12 @ 10:09am

    Analysis

    Jose Soriano has been outstanding to begin the year, and projects to top 17 outs once again. We got this at 15.5 in his last start but I'm fine playing the over again here at 16.5 outs, where we don't need to finish six innings to cash. The Reds have the 4th lowest wOBA against right handed pitching so far this year and rookie George Klassen lasted just two innings in this start yesterday. The Angels bullpen will need Soriano to eat up some innings here, and his high ground ball rate will help him pitching in this park, where fly balls become home runs easier. I give LA the F5 advantage as well.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    Severance Pays
    Under 3.5
    -145
    First 5 Innings Total Runs
    Picked: Apr 12 @ 11:50am

    Analysis

    I was curious what the F5 total would be with the game total as low as 6 at some books in a matchup of former Cy Young winners in Sandy Alcantara and Tarik Skubal -- both of whom I'd like the Cubs to trade for with the (devastating) Cade Horton injury. Tarik won't be dealt, but I could see Sandy going somewhere. It has warmed up a little in Motown but winds appear to be blowing in from right field. Skubal wasn't great last time out but it's his home debut, and his 2025 home and day splits were sensational. Alcantara has allowed only two earned runs all season.

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