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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    Thomas Casale
    Casale on Campus
    player headshot
    H. Henry
    Over 36.5
    -111
    Receiving Yards
    Picked: Jan 26 @ 12:44am

    Analysis

    The Seahawks' defense is tough but the one area the Patriots can exploit is utilizing the tight ends. Seattle allowed the sixth most yards to tight ends during the regular season. In two playoff games, Jake Tonges put up 59 yards and Colby Parkinson went for 62. Hunter Henry went over 36.5 yards 11 times this season and I expect him to be a big part of the Pats' offensive gameplan. Look for this number to go up in the next two weeks, so I recommend taking it early.
  • expert headshot
    Alex Selesnick
    #5
    +916.5
    (58%)
    62-44 in Last 106 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    K. Walker III
    Under 78.5
    -118
    Rushing Yards
    Picked: Jan 26 @ 3:05am

    Analysis

    This is an absolutely brutal matchup for Kenneth Walker against a New England front seven that has been dominant. With a healthy Milton Williams and Robert Spillane in the fold, no one has been able to effectively run against the Patriots. I am jumping on this early as I anticipate this line moving south as we approach kickoff. I consider this New England run defense to be the very best in the league. The Patriots season long metrics don’t reflect how truly elite their run defense is.
  • expert headshot
    R.J. White
    +297
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 NFL Team Props Picks
    New England
    Under 20.5
    -115
    Home Team Total
    Picked: Jan 26 @ 9:22am

    Analysis

    The Patriots have endured a monster run of defenses to get to the Super Bowl, and waiting for them is the league's No. 1 scoring defense. The last opponent to get to 300 yards against Seattle besides the Rams was the Cardinals in Week 10, and the Seahawks have allowed two total touchdowns in six games against non-Rams opponents since Week 12. Drake Maye had one game with a sub 60% completion rate heading into the playoffs and has been below that number in all three games. The Seahawks should excel against the Patriots' offensive line and continue to keep Maye uncomfortable, and Sam Darnold is playing well enough to not expect the Pats offense to get short fields. I love getting this above 20.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    +842.5
    (77%)
    10-3 in Last 13 NFL Picks
    Under 46.5
    -115
    Over/Under
    Picked: Jan 26 @ 2:08pm

    Analysis

    Honestly may not even watch the Super Bowl as I just don't care about either of these teams and I surely don't care about Bad Bunny at halftime. I'm sure the Notebook or something Hugh Grant is on as oppo programing on Feb. 8. It is an outdoor game so maybe we get some elements in Santa Clara. But giving Mike Macdonald two weeks to prepare for sack- and fumble-prone Drake Maye makes me think Seattle will keep that New England offense in check. That offense did very little in the AFC title game. And I'm sure the Pats' defense will have some surprises for Sam Darnold, too. Last 46.5 on our board. Our model has 44 points. Sagarin has 45.2.
  • expert headshot
    Todd Fuhrman
    +440.5
    (70%)
    14-6 in Last 20 NFL Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    K. Walker III
    Under 77.5
    -125
    Rushing Yards
    Picked: Jan 26 @ 3:01pm

    Analysis

    I didn't expect the opportunity to bet Kenneth Walker rushing yards under a total priced in the high 70's but here we are. New England's run defense is damn stout with the return of Milton Williams and I don't expect that to change in two weeks. Kenneth Walker is being asked to take on a bigger workload in the absence of Zach Charbonnet however we saw his effectiveness wane against the Rams as his touches increased, Walker is a dynamic playmaker and he'll be leaned into for sure although it might be more as a receiver than runner vs this Pats defense.

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