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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +1534
    (68%)
    34-16 in Last 50 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Nola
    Under 16.5
    -122
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Jul 10 @ 9:18am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Coming off a seven inning performance, I’m fading Aaron Nola on his outs line today. The righty is under in 13/18 starts, as he’s struggled mightily this season (5.87 ERA). Against the Tigers, he should face 5-6 lefties, which is his less efficient split (11% walk rake, 4.19 pitches per plate appearance). The Tigers are one of the more patient teams as is, with the third lowest chase rate and sixth highest pitches per plate appearance. And after a down period, the Tigers bats have clawed back to respectability, with a 110 wRC+ against righties the last two weeks.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +206
    (67%)
    4-2 in Last 6 DET ML Picks
    DET
    -123
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 10 @ 9:56am

    Analysis

    Tigers starter Jack Flaherty has re-found his form, allowing just five runs over his last five starts combined. He hasn’t allowed a home run since May 22. Meanwhile, the red-hot Tigers have a good matchup against Aaron Nola, who owns a 6.18 ERA over his last seven starts, and a Phillies bullpen with a 7.04 ERA the last two weeks.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +309.5
    (67%)
    18-9 in Last 27 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    L. Castillo
    Under 4.5
    -114
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Jul 10 @ 9:55am

    Analysis

    Luis Castillo's strikeouts have dipped over the last couple of seasons and he faces off with one of the tougher teams to strikeout in the Tampa Bay Rays. Castillo is in just the 40th percentile for whiff rate, but he does get some hitters chasing out of the zone to help his strikeout numbers. The issue with that is this Rays team chases pitches at a low rate, and when they do they make contact at the highest rate in the league. Their lineup puts the ball in play and Castillo is allowing hitters to put the ball in play at a 90% rate when in the zone. He's also had a tougher time striking out lefties, and will likely get a lefty heavy order.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    #5
    +687
    (77%)
    10-3 in Last 13 MLB Picks
    BOS
    +115
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 9 @ 11:23pm

    Analysis

    I just can't bet against Sonny Gray right now, and for that matter, his Red Sox either. Gray is 10-1 with a 2.61 ERA on the season and since the beginning of May, Boston has won 9 of his 11 starts. Meanwhile, the Red Sox have won six straight games and 11 of their last 13. At plus-money on Friday night in New York for the visitors, sign me up!
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +19
    (50%)
    3-3 in Last 6 CHW ML Picks
    CHW
    -161
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 10 @ 10:32am

    Analysis

    The Athletics have cratered, losing 10 of their last 11. They’ve scored two runs or less in four of their last five games. The last two weeks, their team OPS is .551 vs. right-handers, and .518 on the road. That’s makes it a good spot for White Sox starter Sean Burke. In his last four starts, he’s given up five total runs over 25 innings. Three of those runs came on solo homers. The A’s have two home runs off right-handers over their last 99 at-bats. The White Sox bats were non-existent in Boston, scoring just two runs in a three-game sweep. If they can’t bounce back at home against Jacob Lopez (8.07 ERA last seven starts), that’s trouble.

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