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Today's Top Free Expert Picks

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  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1457.5
    (68%)
    80-37-1 in Last 118 MLB Picks
    BOS
    -130
    Money Line
    Picked: Jun 12 @ 8:20am

    Analysis

    I don't think much of Boston as it has lost four in a row and is last in the AL East, but the Sox were off on Thursday so obviously the bullpen is fully ready behind Sonny Gray (7-1, 3.20). He's a rare thing that has gone right for the team in 2026 and is 3-0 with a 2.52 ERA in five home starts. The Rangers won in Kansas City on Thursday and used their closer Jacob Latz (10 saves, 1.69 ERA) for a second straight game so I'd imagine he's not available tonight. Starter Jack Leiter (3-5, 4.69 ERA) has been hit pretty hard in three of his past four overall and has a 5.29 road ERA.
  • expert headshot
    Adam Thompson
    +176
    (67%)
    6-3 in Last 9 MLB Picks
    BOS
    -130
    Money Line
    Picked: Jun 12 @ 9:54am

    Analysis

    Texas is on a roll, 9-3 in its last 12 games. On the year, Boston ranks 29th in runs scored and dead-last in home runs hit. The Sox did score five runs on Thursday and have the bats to wake up. They have a starter worth backing in Sonny Gray, who is 5-0 with a 2.50 ERA in his last seven. We’re not afraid of fading Jack Leiter, who has given up four runs in three of his last four starts and is 1-3 with a 5.26 ERA in six road starts.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    Amags
    player headshot
    T. Yesavage
    Over 5.5
    -125
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Jun 12 @ 9:11am

    Analysis

    Trey Yesavage has missed the over on this line in back to back starts but he has solid strikeout upside with a swinging strike rate nearing 15%. Draftkings pricing is moving back, so I'm diving in where the projection on strikeouts is over six anyways. If Jose Caballero is held out of the lineup again, it would give Yesavage an even better matchup, with at least four hitters of 26% or worse K rates in there, if not five, and the Yankees bats have been better at avoiding strikeouts of late but this is still a good spot for Yesavage to pick some up with the 40%+ whiff rate splitter and less-used slider.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    Doug
    player headshot
    R. Sasaki
    Over 4.5
    -150
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Jun 12 @ 7:21am

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Roki Sasaki seems to have finally found it. The Japanese phenom has struggled in his one-plus seasons stateside, but over his last four starts, he’s turned it around: 24.1 innings, 13 hits, 4 earned runs, 29 strikeouts. His velocity on his fastball is up, touching triple digits for the first time this season over his last two starts (10 and 8 strikeouts respectively). The uptick in velocity coupled with the new splitter he unveiled earlier this season (125 on FanGraph’s Stuff+ model, compared to 101 last season) has yielded a 3.2% increase in Sasaki’s called plus swinging strike rate overall. The White Sox have been mashing, but this is a low line given the trajectory of Sasaki’s season.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    Amags
    player headshot
    R. Sasaki
    Over 4.5
    -150
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Jun 12 @ 8:23am

    Analysis

    Roki Sasaki has flashed the high strikeout upside of late with 10 last time out against the Angels, as he's turned things around mightily over the past month plus. But his floor has also been right where the line is set today, striking out less than four batters just once this year, and that came in Colorado. The White Sox have been a top-10 strikeout team vs. righties for a while now, even without Murakami, and this is a low number for a guy now steadily above a 14% swinging strike rate. He's got upside so I'm splitting my bet and also playing 0.5u on the over 5.5 Ks at +145 on Fanduel as well.

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