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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    +256
    (80%)
    4-1 in Last 5 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    A. Abbott
    Under 17.5
    -117
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Jun 14 @ 10:46am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. Two factors at bay here that skew me towards the under. For one, the Diamondbacks are an excellent hitting team against left-handed pitching - .767 OPS on the season, and .857 OPS over the last month (with a 132 OPS). Secondly, we have great hitting conditions at Great American Ballpark in the earlier part of the game, leading into rain. Andrew Abbott isn’t the most efficient pitcher (3.97 pitches per plate appearance, 1.48 WHIP at home), and for him to clear this line, it might be a race against the impending weather.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    Amags
    player headshot
    A. Abbott
    Under 17.5
    -115
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Jun 14 @ 12:22pm

    Analysis

    The home and away splits for Andrew Abbott are the reason to fade him on the full six innings here today. We get solid hitting weather in Great American Ballpark and at this price, it's showing some value to take the under here. At home, Abbott is pitching to a 5.15 ERA while it's just a three ERA on the road. He's getting an extra day of rest and has hit the six inning mark with regularity of late, but against a DBacks team that's been significantly better vs. lefties, I'm going to fade the full six innings here and bet on the heat and DBacks offense to knock him out.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    Amags
    player headshot
    Z. Gallen
    Under 17.5
    -127
    Outs Recorded
    Picked: Jun 14 @ 12:28pm

    Analysis

    Similar to Andrew Abbott, Zac Gallen has some home and road splits that make you wonder why they keep giving him the ball outside of his home park. His ERA on the road is a bloated 7.44 while at home it's just a 3.65 ERA. He's allowed 8+ hits in three straight starts, with 4+ runs allowed in each, and he's missed the full six innings mark with regularity this year. The DBacks have a chance to win a series with a win today, something they've not done since May 27th, so I don't think they let things get out of hand is Gallen begins to struggle.
  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    +74
    (55%)
    6-5 in Last 11 MLB ML Picks
    SEA
    -140
    Money Line
    LOSS
    Picked: Jun 14 @ 12:43am

    Analysis

    In the rubber match of this weekend series, I'll take the Mariners to win it led by starting pitcher Emerson Hancock, who has surrendered two or less earned runs in 7 of his last 8 starts. Meanwhile, Washington starter Miles Mikolas is 1-5 with a 5.90 ERA this season, including a 7.94 ERA at home. I won't overthink it and will the ride with the road team, who I still believe has a good chance to represent the American League in the World Series come October.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1458
    (68%)
    85-40-1 in Last 126 MLB Picks
    PIT
    -165
    Money Line
    LOSS
    Picked: Jun 13 @ 10:33pm

    Analysis

    I am not one of those people who just auto-bets Paul Skenes or the Miz (I will address him this week in the newsletter when he starts next) or Tarik Skubal or Shohei (pitcher version) but see now we are getting value because Skenes is winless in a career-high five straight games. I would venture to guess that the lookahead lines -- those don't exist in MLB but I have trading experience so a general idea -- would be about -250 a couple of weeks ago. I feel like this is an overreaction number.

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