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  • expert headshot
    Eric Cohen
    #2
    +1671
    (63%)
    44-26 in Last 70 MLB Picks
    Under 8.5
    -110
    Over/Under
    Picked: Aug 18 @ 11:23pm

    Analysis

    The Red Sox offense has scored 20 runs combined in the first two games of this series but don't be surprised if pitching rules in Game 3. For Arizona, Brandon Pfaadt has been Cy Young-like since being recalled from AAA in late-June. He hasn't given up more than two runs in any of his nine starts since then, including four straight outings with zero earned runs allowed. On the other side, Payton Tolle has given up two runs or less in 6 of his last 7 outings. I wouldn't be surprised to see a 4-2 type of game on Wednesday afternoon with two pitchers who are rolling right now.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #1
    +1837
    (61%)
    91-59 in Last 150 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    T. Bradley
    Under 5.5
    -160
    Hits Allowed
    WIN
    Picked: Aug 19 @ 11:18am

    Analysis

    Caesar’s. So maybe the cornfields got to him in his last outing, but I’m going back to Taj Bradley to stay under his hits allowed line at home today. Bradley has stayed under in 16/24, with just a .226 average against (.229 xBA). He’s particularly dominant against lefties, with a .217/.220 average/xBA, which will bode well in today’s matchup. The Braves will start 5-6 lefties, which includes three of their four best hitters (in terms of average and xBA against righties). And Atlanta has been brutal at the plate lately: .217 over the last two weeks against righties, and .197 in the second half against righties in away games. Under 4.5 for a partial unit (+115 or better) works too.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    Severance Pays
    Minnesota
    Over 3.5
    -143
    Runs
    WIN
    Picked: Aug 19 @ 10:16am

    Analysis

    Happy to report as of this morning that we have team totals for MLB, so let's try one. The model has the Twins scoring 4.5 today at Target Field, where it's pretty decent hitting weather. It's only second big-league start of the year for Atlanta's AJ Smith-Shawver off TJS. His first: 4.1 IP, 2 runs on July 29 at the Mets. Minny scored exactly four in winning the first two of the series against better starting pitchers and has scored at least four in five of the past eight. Maybe for the first time in my MLB betting life, I'm rooting for extra innings!
  • expert headshot
    Bob Konarski
    +288
    (55%)
    22-18 in Last 40 MLB Picks
    Under 8.5
    -102
    Over/Under
    LOSS
    Picked: Aug 19 @ 12:05pm

    Analysis

    This will be just the second start of the season for AJ Smith-Shawver, and Minnesota's lineup, aside from Josh Bell, has no experience facing him. While the Twins have won the first two games of this series, they have still managed just four wins in their last 10 games overall. Atlanta's offense has been in a slump, failing to score more than three runs in any of its last five games. That sets up a favorable matchup for Taj Bradley this afternoon, as the Braves are batting just .186 over the past seven days.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Snyder
    +90
    (56%)
    5-4 in Last 9 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    P. Skenes
    Over 5.5
    -148
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    LOSS
    Picked: Aug 19 @ 12:18am

    Analysis

    I'm playing a bit of a hunch here. He's had three days of extra rest and there were no reported issues in his bullpen. The lowered velocity was a concern and he only threw 65 pitches last time, but still struck out four. Before that? 6, 7, 11 and 8 K in his previous four outings. He'll strikeout six in six innings here.

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