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  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +1303
    (72%)
    23-9 in Last 32 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    Z. Matthews
    Over 4.5
    -137
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    Picked: Jul 4 @ 12:38pm

    Analysis

    FanDuel (-125). Zebby Matthews has cleared this line in 6/9 starts this season. He’s actually made some tweaks with his arm angle and arsenal this season that have helped him with his command but lowered his whiff rate. The result has allowed him to stay in games longer, which in turn has kept his overall strikeouts up. He’s also been afforded a very long leash from the struggling Twins. Facing a Yankees lineup that’s struck out at a 28% rate over the last two weeks - Matthews pump-the-zone style should bode well against the Bombers, who have the second highest CSW%.
  • expert headshot
    Zack Cimini
    +411
    (50%)
    22-22 in Last 44 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    E. Carter
    Over 0.5
    -111
    Hits
    Picked: Jul 4 @ 2:27pm

    Analysis

    Texas even with all their injuries has mounted a nice stretch as they have won seven out of their last eight games. Evan Carter was a big spark in Thursday’s win over Detroit, as he had a hit in his two pinch hit at bats including a home run. Jack Flaherty has pitched five innings or less in four straight starts, and struggled against the Rangers on May 1st. In that start he went 3 2/3 innings and gave up four runs. Take Carter to clear his combination line once again against the Tigers.
  • expert headshot
    Matt Severance
    #1
    +1416.5
    (67%)
    87-43 in Last 130 MLB ML Picks
    ATL
    -169
    Money Line
    Picked: Jul 4 @ 10:54am

    Analysis

    Happy 4th to everyone and be safe with those fireworks says my now-lefty friend (not Mickelson). While this is certainly not cheap, seems a very fair price on the Braves at home considering Chris Sale is pitching. Atlanta has lost three of his past four, but not really Sale's doing just lack of support. He has a 1.09 ERA in seven home starts. No Mets other than Francisco Lindor have good splits off him. New York's Sean Manaea (1-3, 4.71 ERA) is completely mediocre and still angry he wasn't invited to the Taylor Swift wedding. I'm just presuming there. I didn't get an invite either bro ... there are about 50 million things I would have rather done anyways, including dental surgery.
  • expert headshot
    Prop Bet Guy
    #2
    +1303
    (72%)
    23-9 in Last 32 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Ashcraft
    Over 5.5
    -125
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    WIN
    Picked: Jul 3 @ 11:39pm

    Analysis

    FanDuel. Will break my “no overnight” rule on this one, but it’s for a pre-noon game as is. And it’s a great spot for Braxton Ashcraft, who is over this line in 11/17 starts, including 25 over his last three. The Nationals are very left-handed heavy, with six likely in the lineup. Ashcraft sees his strikeout rate jump to 32% against southpaws, paired with a 29% whiff rate. Washington has been striking out a bunch as is, with a 25% rate over the last two weeks. Look for Ashcraft to capitalize.
  • expert headshot
    Angelo Magliocca
    +372
    (75%)
    12-4 in Last 16 MLB Player Props Picks
    player headshot
    B. Ashcraft
    Over 5.5
    -130
    Pitcher Strikeouts
    WIN
    Picked: Jul 4 @ 8:43am

    Analysis

    This Washington Nationals lineup doesn’t strike out a ton, with just a 21% rate over the last month against righties, but they feature a bunch of lefties. Braxton Ashcraft has been far more successful in terms of strikeouts when facing left-handed batters and we continue to get 5.5 as his strikeout line so I’ll take the over. His curveball plays to a near 45% whiff rate against lefties and many of these Nationals hitters have struggled with the curveball. 7,8,9 Ks ladder for 1u.

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