Whether a season is a "breakout" or a "career year" isn't known until well after the fact.
The label placed on 2011 for two Royals -- Alex Gordon and Jeff Francoeur -- will be judged on how they perform in 2012. All the prognosticating statistics -- PECOTA, CAIRO, ZIPS and Bill James -- see both falling from their 2011 totals. Kansas City hitting coach Kevin Seitzer, doesn't believe in those stats, he believes in his pupils.
Gordon, 28, hit .303/.376/.532 with 23 home runs. The most optimistic of the projections -- James', has him hitting .276/.361/.467 with 22 home runs this season, while the least optimistic, CAIRO, has him hitting .264/.347/.436 with 14 homers.
Francoeur, also 28, hit .285/.329/.476 with 20 homers in 2011, his best season since he hit .300/.336/.549 with 14 homers as a rookie in 2005 in Atlanta. The most friendly projection, ZIPS, has him hitting .273/.314/.437 with 17 home runs in 2012, while CAIRO has him hitting .262/.309/.416 with 15 home runs.
"It fires me up when I read stuff that says Gordo is projected to be a .270 hitter," Seitzer told the Kansas City Star. "I'm like, 'Project all you want. This kid is just scratching the surface of what he can do.'"
Seitzer said he saw both players develop in 2011, making hte adjustments that they need to to be consistent big-league hitters.
"They're going to be better," Seitzer told the paper. "Their swings will continue to get cleaned up and have fewer holes. They're going to be less vulnerable."
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