The 2016 NBA Draft is going to see a lot of really solid players go undrafted.
That's just the way it's going to go down, and there are a wide variety of reasons for it. First, with college basketball's "year of the senior" coming to an end, there is a strong, deep class of players that have entered the draft this season. Second, there is a deep international class of talent that has created a sort of glut in terms of draftable players. Finally, there is a larger number than normal of teams that have more than two selections, which could lead to a situation involving quite a few draft and stash players in order to conserve roster space.
Now, in recent years, there have been quite a few collegiate players that have been converted into draft and stashes. For instance, last year Marcus Thornton agreed to be stashed when he was picked by the Celtics, and spent his first year over with the Sydney Kings in Australia before returning to America after that season ended to play in the D-League. Maybe there will be a few cases like that, but most stashes will likely be of the international variety.
That, along with the difficulty of projecting this draft currently due to the glut of similarly talented players, makes it relatively tough to figure out who will go undrafted and who will get a chance taken on them. It makes a project like trying to find valuable players likely to go undrafted a bit difficult. That limited this field quite a bit. Here's a stab at something like that though, as these five players could all eventually find their way to the NBA -- be it either due to an excellent training camp in their rookie year, a terrific couple of years in the D-League, or improvement overseas. There are plenty of routes to the NBA, and it's possible these five could take any number of them.
Fred VanVleet | PG | Wichita State | No. 60 on CBS Sports NBA Draft Big Board
Why he's unlikely to be selected: He's probably the least "toolsy" point guard in the draft. There are bigger guys and stronger guys. There are more athletic players and better shooters. Plenty of players averaged more points, and more assists, and project better defensively to the NBA. Basically, there isn't any singular tangible skill that VanVleet that stands out to make you say he is worthy of a draft pick.
Why he can beat the odds: Sure, the tangible skills might not be there. But there is no other point guard in this draft who has the intangibles VanVleet has. VanVleet is tough as they come, and has a better understanding of how to run his team as a floor general than any other player in the draft. Basically, his feel for the game is just absolutely tremendous. He is a maestro in the pick-and-roll, he changes speed and direction better than just about anyone due to superb ball-handling skills, and he attacks players defensively as well as you'd expect given his time with Wichita State under coach Gregg Marshall. Basically, the kid just gets it. If he does go undrafted, he should be a priority free agent for a team that needs a point guard, much in the same way that T.J. McConnell was for Philadelphia last season. He's going to get the most out of his skills, and he'd be a tremendous player to add to a locker room.
Danuel House | G/F | Texas A&M | No. 63
Why he's unlikely to be selected: Simply, House always left teams wanting more when he took floor in his final two years for Texas A&M. As a 6-7 wing with tremendous athleticism and ability, House only averaged 15 points per game on a 51.5 true-shooting percentage. Basically, he's more aggressive than you'd like to see from a role player, and oftentimes just doesn't play smart, efficient offensive basketball. He's also not the best ball-handler, and probably needs to be a bit more focused defensively in order to carve out some time at the next level.
Why he can beat the odds: House is still an athletic 6-7 wing who has potential to shoot and defend at a time when such players are at their most sought after around the league. Despite only hitting 30.7 percent of his 3s in 2016, House did knock down 40 percent of his 3s in 2015. If he can iron out his stroke, become more consistent from 3, and really lock down defensively in the way that he's occasionally shown that he can, House has all of the tools necessary to play at the next level. It's just all about him getting it together. Some guys figure it out, some don't. But it's worth noting that rumors around the league have him performing well in workouts thus far, taking the step toward proving himself.
Josh Adams | G | Wyoming | No. 71
Why he's unlikely to be selected: Adams was more of a role player for his first three seasons of college basketball before stepping up in a big way in 2016. There's a feeling around the league wondering if you can actually trust Adams to run a team. At 6-2 with a relatively short wingspan, you likely need him to play point guard and initiate your offense. Another question: did he beat up on an unusually weak Mountain West, particularly in the backcourt? The questions here are aplenty, really, and Adams is going to have to go into workouts with a great attitude to convince teams that he's worth the expenditure.
Why he can beat the odds: First and foremost, there are few athletes as explosive as Adams in this draft. He can leap with anyone, he is lightning quick, and has tremendous ball-handling ability to get into the paint or split the defense in pick-and-roll settings. There was arguably no player as productive in the country this season on a per-possession basis. Adams led all draft prospects in per-40 pace-adjusted scoring, and did it at a true-shooting percentage of 60.4. He hit 38 percent of his 3s and improved his consistency there dramatically. Plus, he's improved tremendously as a passer and lowered his turnover rate this season to show growth. Maybe he's just another Mike James, destined to dominate summer leagues and get quick cups of coffee in the NBA while never fully sticking. But there's a lot to like about his explosive game.
Julian Jacobs | G | USC | No. 79
Why he's unlikely to be selected: Jacobs is another player who has all of the tools in his toolbox but has never quite put things together. He's a tremendous athlete, but one who makes silly decisions constantly with the ball. He can defend, but occasionally gets lackadaisical in utilizing his tools. He shows decent shooting ability mechanically, but the shots don't fall and he's not confident enough in the shot to take it consistently. Basically, he's a low feel guy right now who needs to improve across the board in a lot of ways.
Why he can beat the odds: No seriously, Jacobs has all of the athletic gifts you hope for in a point guard. He can get to the lane at will due to a lightning quick first step, he finishes well around the basket due to his explosiveness, and has elite size for the position. He improved tremendously as a passer this season, leading the Pac-12 in assists and showing some potential as a creator for others. Sometimes, he does show the ability to be an elite defender. If he can focus in on defending well and improving his jump shot, Jacobs could be the deep kind of sleeper that will make his decision to leave college early seem sensible.
Elgin Cook | G/F | Oregon | No. 80
Why he's unlikely to be selected: There is a lot to like about Cook's game for a role player NBA career. In some ways, he's a pretty perfect fit for the modern game. But there are a lot of concerns, mostly on the offensive end. First and foremost, he's more of a power offensive player than a skilled one. He doesn't shoot from distance, and only hit 36 percent of his midrange jumpers this season. Mostly, he played the 4 position for Oregon and just doesn't quite have your typical perimeter skill for a wing in the NBA game.
Why he can beat the odds: Cook is exactly what NBA teams are looking for defensively. He plays hard, is extremely athletic, and at 6-6 with a 6-11 wingspan possesses the measurements necessary to succeed in a stopper capacity. Plus, due to his physical strength combined with his quickness, he has the versatility to switch onto a wide variety of players in screen situations and hold his own. If he can bring the offense along with where the defense already is, Cook can find a definite role as a 20-minute per game guy off the bench. Really, the key is going to be the jump shot and, at the very least, being able to consistently hit corner 3s.
