Welcome to the last stand in Cleveland. The Cavs have one chance to push the NBA Finals to a Game 7 in the Bay vs. the Golden State Warriors. It took a super-human effort in Game 5 from LeBron James and an otherworldly scoring binge from Kyrie Irving, with Draymond Green out, just to force this series back to the Midwest.
The Warriors closed out the Finals last year in the Q and can repeat the celebration with a victory Thursday while the Cavaliers hope to do something no team in NBA history has done: come back from a 3-1 deficit to win the NBA Finals.
Here's a look at everything there is to know about Game 6.
THE BIG PICTURE
We have a series ... kind of?
So the Cavaliers won and forced Game 6. They've now won as many games as they won last year in the Finals, so at least they didn't take a step backward in that department. After Game 4, it looked like a complete blowout domination by Golden State. The Cavaliers seemed to have no counters for what the Warriors could do.
The problem is that after Game 5, the same things remain true.
The Cavaliers didn't make adjustments to win Game 5. They didn't find lineups that suddenly gave the Warriors issues or find a strategy that gave Golden State fits. They won the game, and did so behind heroic efforts, but this is how they won it:
- The Warriors missed 19 of 22 3-pointers in the second half. The best shooting team by effective field goal percentage of all time missed 19 3-pointers in the second half alone.
- Kyrie Irving scored 41 points, mostly off contested isolation shots that defied the imagination.
- LeBron James put together arguably his best playoff game ever, probably his best Finals game ever.
- Draymond Green was out with suspension, unable to impact James defensively or wreak havoc with energy and effort.
That's really it. We can credit the Cavs, and really James and Irving, for what they did, for their defense and execution, but those elements are really what Game 5 came down to.
If the Warriors win Game 6, then it was a blip on what was an inevitable march over the Cavs to the title. If Cleveland wins, however, it's going to be a matter of a remarkable effort to overcome so much disadvantage in talent and execution. The series has gone six, but I'm not ready to call it a series yet. We have to see if the Cavs can pull one more rabbit out of their hat.
The Kyrie Slot Machine
Irving took 14 shots in Game 5 considered "contested" by NBA.com's SportVU data. He made 10 of those shots. Monday was a reminder of exactly how incredible he is as a tough shot maker. Irving may be the second-best tough shot maker in the league behind Stephen Curry.
However, the thing about tough, contested iso shots isn't the ability of a player like Curry or Irving to make them, it's the ability to replicate the performance. In Game 5, the slot machine came up triple cherries for Irving and the result was a performance LeBron called the best he has ever seen.
Can he do it again?
That's what most of this series comes down to. Last year, James carried the Cavaliers despite the odds and his individual brilliance helped the Cavs win two games. This year, the Cavs have to hope the same happens with James and Irving. They need Irving to put together mind-boggling games four times in a row vs. the tightest defense. It's not that it's impossible.
It's just not probable.
Evaluating James' Game 5
While we're on the subject, there has been talk that James' Game 5 was the best he has ever been. I wouldn't put it there. It's on the list, and if you feel that way, it's understandable. Down 3-1, on the road, vs. the best single-season team of all time, putting up 41-16-7-3-3? Incredible.
And that legend may grow if the Cavaliers do the seemingly impossible, coming back from 3-1 for the first time in Finals history to win the series. But if the Cavaliers fall in Game 6, James' Game 5 was the noble last stand of a fallen king. The 2012 Game 6 against Boston felt different. That 45-15-5 performance where James seemed in some sort of anger trance from tipoff on seemed like a man grasping the entire Celtics legend and squeezing it to pulp like a peach. James burned the Garden down that night. He silenced Oracle and left it frustrated and sad after Game 5, but the crowd were like children who didn't get to eat their cake before dinner.
They still get the cake.
What's more, in order for the Cavaliers to pull of the kind of miracle comeback that would exalt Game 5, James will need even better performances.
Because Draymond Green will be in action for Game 6.
We're past the point of adjustments. Those lose their impact after Game 5. But here are things you should know about the series headed into Game 6.
KEEP IN MIND
Warriors
Draymond's fine line: The flagrant count doesn't reset after you're suspended. Draymond Green is back for Game 6 and determined to make a difference, but if he happens to punch/kick/tap someone in the man parts again, or steps over the line in any way, he's going to be suspended for Game 7 if it goes that far. Green put himself in this position, and helped cost his teammates Game 5. It's on him to restrain himself to make sure this doesn't get out of hand.
Start the celebration early: The Warriors need to come out with their A-game. I loathe the "How important is it to get out to a good start?" questions. They're so stupid. Everyone wants a good start. Everyone wants a good middle. Everyone wants a good finish to the game. No one says "Oh, you know what would be great? A 20-0 deficit to start the game. Then we'd have them right where we want them." That said, the Warriors' mentality needs to be "We're better than these guys, let's run this up and be done with this squad." The Warriors had the attitude after Game 4 that the Cavaliers can't hang with them. If they can play like that, play to their best selves, which quite honestly they hardly have in the playoffs, they'll knock the Cavs back and maybe break their spirits. They can spend the fourth quarter celebrating and laughing on the bench like they have so often and celebrate the best individual season in history for any team.
Klaymation: Klay Thompson has been the Warriors' best player throughout the playoffs, and he may be the best option to guard LeBron James on the perimeter when Andre Iguodala isn't on the floor. Thompson has done a very good job vs. James and struggled vs. Irving (though no one could have guarded Irving in Game 5; he was unconscious). Thompson should get a crack at the King, to drive him to Green's help and bottle up the superstar. Offensively, Thompson's due, and considering his game the last time the Warriors had a Game 6 (vs. the Thunder) there's a chance he goes supernova. Curry could of course break lose and do his thing, but this is also an opportunity for Thompson to put the stamp on his best postseason to date.
Cavaliers
All about the 3-point line: This is really what it comes down to for Cleveland. They have to not get destroyed from the arc. The Warriors missed 3-pointers in Game 5 and lost. They made them in the other games and won. Cleveland has to do whatever it can to take the 3-point attack away from the Warriors. With Andrew Bogut out, one of their best quick pass and putback scorers is out. The Cavs have dominated points in the paint in this series. They just need to do whatever they can to stop the Warriors from shooting 3-pointers. They can't keep pace in a shootout; they have to accept that. This has to be a grind-it-out game where James carries them with isolation play. If that sounds like last year, it's because it is. That's where we're at. Abandon the plan to try and match firepower and just hammer them possession by possession.
One freaking bench performer: Iman Shumpert. Matthew Dellavedova. Richard Jefferson. Mo Williams, for crying out loud! Someone from the Cavs' bench needs a big game. Just one. Just one freaking game to give them a boost. The Cavs don't need much, they really don't. Just one game where they get a surprising performance to lift the team. The Warriors have gotten big games from Iguodala, Shaun Livingston, Leandro Barbosa, even Anderson Varejao. The Cavs need one. Just. One. If they don't, the starters just might not have enough to get them through.
This is gonna sound crazy: Dare Draymond. The Cavs' approach early in this series was to dare Green to make shots. He punished them with that in Game 2, going off. The Cavs have to stick with it. Green's coming off a suspension, an emotional one. He gets caught in that emotion and can let it affect his game, either withdrawing or trying too hard. He's cold coming off the layover, and he has a world of pressure on him to help them close this out. For all those Game 2 heroics, Green is shooting 32 percent from 3-point range in this series.
Let. Him. Shoot. You gotta live with it if Green beats you. That's all there is to it. Don't give up shots to Curry and Thompson, trust your game plan that has worked. Green said Wednesday that if he played in Game 5, the Warriors would have won. Make him prove it.
THE NUMBERS
- The Cavaliers are favored by two, according to oddsmakers, which is just crazy to me, but hey, they're at home and "LeBron."
- SportsLine says the Warriors win the series in 84.5 percent of the simulations, but only 38 percent of the time in Game 6.
- Teams up 3-2 in Game 6 of the Finals: 26-18. But wait.
- Teams up 3-2 in Game 6 on the road: 7-8. But wait!
- Teams up 3-2 in Game 6 after losing Game 3 and Game 5: 7-0. I do not know what those last three numbers mean. Probably nothing. Right? Yeah. Probably nothing.
- I just made a big deal about "grinding out iso possessions" etc. but maybe I'm a moron, because listen to this. Average pace (possessions combined) in the three Warriors wins: 89. Pace in the two Cavaliers wins: 96. So maybe the "speed the game up" idea from Tyronn Lue isn't so crazy. It just sounds super crazy.
- Tristan Thompson's defensive rebound percentage (percentage of defensive rebounds the Cavs got with him on the floor) in wins in this series is 26.7, in losses just 13.1. In short: Thompson needs to dominate the glass. He's a big part of this for Cleveland under the radar.
- In the three Finals Game 6's LeBron James has played in, he has averaged 28-11-9 with 2 steals on 45 percent from the field and 25 percent from 3-point range. He has to raise that average if the Cavaliers are going to head back to the Bay.
