Well, we've had a whole seven nights of NBA action. All 30 teams have played at least two games. So enough of this small sample nonsense. Let's throw caution to the wind, dispense with consideration that if you have two bad games in a row you look horrible right now without it meaning anything (and vice versa if you have two good games), and start overreacting to things.
Here are some first-week NBA overreactions, along with some perspective wrapped in.
Well, Too Bad The Warriors' Grand Experiment Didn't Work
Golden State is worse than bad; it's mediocre. It's fine. It will win a lot of games, no matter what. The Warriors didn't play well vs. the Pelicans or Suns and still won those games. But the magic from last year is gone. They whip the ball around and it seems unnecessary, they're passing up open shots. They get out on the break and find that shooter ... and Klay Thompson bricks a 3. Their interior defense is somewhere between "not great" and "genuinely worrisome," they can't rebound, and they're getting run off the court whenever they don't go small.
The Warriors also look tight and frustrated. This was not the seamless transition we all expected. Zaza Pachulia looks way worse than Bogut. Draymond Green is complaining about teams trying to "punk" them. But they were punked on opening night in their own building, and have looked blah vs. the Pelicans and Suns, who led them for more than a half of basketball game before talent won out.
Sure, there's time for them to get it together, but they're not going to get better big men. They're not going to get better on the boards. And the problem of there not being enough shots for guys to get in a rhythm to go away. The Warriors played a special brand of basketball the last two years. Sadly, that may be gone, especially given that Kevin Durant is only averaging 0.5 fewer isolation possessions than he did last year with the Thunder.
Tuesday night's blowout win over Portland made it seem like things were better but really it was just Stephen Curry being a human supernova and some improved defense vs. a Blazers team that has no ability to attack the rim and couldn't hit water if it fell out of a boat.
Perspective: OK, so they weren't great to start. They're still 2-1 headed into Tuesday's game vs. the Blazers. Their rotations will get better. And the biggest thing is that they are currently 25th in effective field goal percentage on unguarded shots, per Synergy Sports. That number goes up, even slightly, and they're blowing out teams in their last two contests. Durant and Curry look phenomenal together. Some of us thought that it would take time, but the Warriors always urged caution. The win vs. the Blazers Tuesday was more of what we expected, and Curry seemed to really ignite their passion for the first time. They'll be fine.
The Chicago Bulls Are A Force In the East This Year
Everything clicks. Dwyane Wade is hitting 3-pointers. Robin Lopez looks like the perfect fit for Fred Hoiberg's system. The bench players are giving great contributions. They're playing physical and precise basketball. It's all working together. Maybe we should have seen this coming. They have three former All-Stars, a capable starting center, and shooters galore off the bench to balance things. Jimmy Butler has improved every season and looks even better now.
As impressive as their offense is, the Bulls are also 8th in defense per possession early on. They've put together a great resume, beating the Celtics and Pacers, and hammering a Nets team that has hung with other squads. The Bulls are good.
Perspective: Look, they're good. That's to be sure. But shooting is fickle and if it fades, that offense goes away in a hurry. Yes, they look better than a lot of East teams, but a lot of East teams have injuries or adapting circumstances. You just can't put stock in a team full of bad shooters to keep shooting well.
Russell Westbrook Will Average A Triple-Double
He's already doing it! While averaging 39 points a game! Westbrook will have the ball enough, is bold enough, is athletic enough, and will have to play in enough fourth quarters. That's the real key here. Usually, when you have a player of Westbrook's talent, in his prime, you have surrounded him with enough good players to mean that he can sit out a lot of fourth quarters. But the Thunder are still trying to adapt to the departure of Kevin Durant; they haven't had a chance to reload. And Westbrook's gear is constantly on high. He can't take his foot off the pedal, so he's going to keep racking up these stats.
He is a special enough player in a special enough situation. Perspective: You can't keep this up. He'll run out of gas and either suffer an injury or lose the ability to play that many minutes. It's just not something that can be done night in and night out. And one of this triple-doubles came in an overtime game. Plus, these all came vs. bad teams. Without spacing and another threat, teams will throw enough doubles at him to limit him and keep him off those marks. It's just not possible.
Is it?
The Spurs Haven't Lost a Step, And Will Challenge The Warriors In The West
They destroyed the Warriors in Oracle. They hung on vs. a surprisingly pesky Kings team. They beat a good Heat squad. Kawhi Leonard looks like an MVP. Dewayne Dedmon and Jonathon Simmons are major contributors. Death. Taxes. Spurs.
Perspective: Pau Gasol is a defensive sieve, and Kawhi Leonard hasn't shown he can carry them to a playoff series win against a good team. The Spurs are going to win regular season games. We knew that. The win vs. the Warriors sure seemed to say as much about Golden State as it did San Antonio. The Spurs fell to the Jazz, without Gordon Hayward and Derrick Favors, on Tuesday, in San Antonio.
The Magic Are The Worst Team In the League
They can't defend, even though they stacked their roster with defensive players and a defensive coach. They can't score, since their roster makes zero sense from a scoring standpoint. They are out of sync and their effort is terrible. They are going to be a bottom team.
Perspective: The Sixers didn't stop existing, and the Magic beat them Tuesday. So there's at least one worse team.
