With the NBA salary cap jumping from $70 million around $94 million this summer, with teams having to spend 90 percent of the cap, we're about to see some wild spending. Basically, forget everything you thought you knew about what a max player is. A month from now even role players are going to shopping for leer jets.
So who are some of these guys who are about to get a lot more money than they probably deserve? Some of the names might surprise you. Here are eight players who, for varying reasons, you can expect to be on the all-overpaid team.
Two years ago, Turner signed a two-year, $6.7 million deal with the Boston Celtics, and it was the best thing that ever happened to him. In Boston he was free of the expectations that came with being the No. 2 pick in the 2010 draft, and he was used properly as a secondary ballhandler. His physical defense and confidence endeared him to the organization, and Turner has said that this season's exit meeting was the first where he was told the team wanted to bring him back.
Turner found his niche under coach Brad Stevens and proved he could contribute to a winning team. His lack of a consistent 3-point shot is still an issue, but the league is moving toward a place where everyone on the court is expected to switch onto both smaller and bigger players. This shift makes his versatility valuable, as does his ability to create off the dribble and operate in the post.
The trouble with Turner is that his flaws are still there. He does not have range, nor does he have elite athleticism or quickness. If the Celtics let him go (and do not replace him with someone else who is comfortable with the ball in his hands), they will miss him. If they keep him, they might have to pay him more than $15 million per season. That's probably too much, and indeed, if another team signs Turner for that kind of money, it better be sure that it can cover up his weaknesses the same way that Boston did.
All signs point to Whiteside getting a maximum contract thanks to his offensive production and his defensive reputation. Let's start with the latter.
Whiteside led the league in blocks per game (3.68), total blocks (269), blocks per 48 minutes (6.08) and block percentage (9.71) this past season. He has four triple-doubles with blocks as a member of the Heat, and he likes to remind people that he's the only person on the planet doing this.
This sold some T-shirts, but how much did it help Miami win? Despite not really having another center on the roster, the Heat were a better defensive team and a better rebounding team with Whiteside on the bench. This is a damning indictment of his propensity to go after blocks at all costs rather than simply playing sound defense. The team that signs Whiteside has to hope that his stat-chasing days end when he puts pen to paper on his massive deal.
On offense, Whiteside is a much safer bet. At 7-foot-1 with a 7-7 wingspan, he is a great finisher around the rim and a massive target for alley-oops off of pick-and-rolls. If you're the Los Angeles Lakers, for example, it's easy to get excited about pairing him with a creative point guard like D'Angelo Russell.
Whiteside's talent is undeniable. The question is whether or not it's worth paying him a starting salary of $22 million. At 27 years old, it seems unwise to assume his bad habits will suddenly vanish.
We should start off by clarifying that Dwight Howard isn't a bad player. He isn't a mediocre player. He's a good player. He might even be capable of being a great player again when he signs with his new team. Howard is still a huge impact on the defensive end of the floor, especially when he's on a team with even a modicum of team chemistry. While he doesn't have the same athleticism he once had, he can be a force on defense and he can be a force on offense in the pick-and-roll if you can convince him not to want to post up so much.
In the first year or two of this next contract for Howard, you're not really overpaying him. But we're also talking about a 30-year old center with a history of back injuries and over 30,000 minutes under his belt. He'll be making over $30 million in each year of this contract. Paying him over $65 million over the final two years of that contract is going to be brutal. That's where the overpay is for Howard.
You can't trust that he's going to be healthy and a center with a bad back in his mid 30s shouldn't be making a million for every year he's been on this planet. There's probably no way you can get him for a Greg Monroe type of deal where you have some flexibility. The number of teams that will be bidding for Howard's services this summer make it a virtual certainty he's getting a four-year max.
The "winning" bidder will feel pretty good about this until 2018 at the latest. Then it becomes one of those Amar'e Stoudemire contracts that you're just counting the days until it expires.
Back in 2014, there was a push for Arron Afflalo to be an All-Star. He was lighting up the box score by averaging 18.2 points on a bad Orlando Magic team. It was the pinnacle of his individual and team production. Since then, we've seen a pretty large dropoff both in what he can do for a team and what he can do individually. Afflalo is a fine player, especially if you can convince him to take a mild contract coming off the bench for a winner.
However, most guys don't opt out of the second year of a deal in order to take a reasonable position. He signed with the New York Knicks a year ago to help bring some veteran knowhow to the rotation but somehow lost his starting shooting guard position to Sasha Vujacic (yes, that same Sasha Vujacic) under Kurt Rambis. That wasn't so much about quality of play as it was attitude and understanding of the Triangle Offense.
Afflalo scored well and shot the three well on the Knicks. For his career, he's a 38.5 percent shooter from deep. But his defense has slipped a lot and he's a ball-stopper in the age of team ball, offensive flow and individual sacrifice. He'll turn 31 this season and anything over a two-year deal (and ideally a two-year deal with some flexibility) could be pretty dangerous for team building and cap management. His last four years have shown wild swings in 3-point effectiveness, so if you're getting the good swings, then he can help your attack. If you're getting the bad swings, then what are you even paying for? A new DeShawn Stevenson? How appealing does that sound in 2016? Someone is going to give him too much.
Barnes is the guy who gets picked on by frustrated Warriors fans because his teammates are awesome, but he's also still very young, versatile, and there have been a lot of times when Steph Curry's magic wasn't working and the Warriors' offense sputtered, and Barnes came in and hit shots out of the post or from the corner to keep them within range, setting up comebacks. And still, this is the guy everyone points to as the most likely to be brutally overpaid this summer, and for good reason.
Barnes hasn't put together his considerable skill set at any point. Not in college, not in the NBA. Can he post up? Sure. Can he hit 3-pointers? Absolutely, career 38-percent shooter from deep. Can he play small forward or power forward? Indeed. Can he rebound? A little bit. Can he pass? A little bit. Can he handle? A little bit. Jack of all trades!
Master of none.
He's not a dominant post scorer. His handle is weak. His shooting is good, but in today's environment, unless you're 40 percent or better from 3 you're not a great shooter. He's not an elite small forward or power forward. He can't control the glass. He's not a dynamic passer with great vision. There's nothing with Barnes that you look at and say "He's top level at that." He's just OK at a bunch of things.
The idea of a "max player" is a flawed concept on multiple levels -- it's more about investor value (or what he means to the team signing him), it's a percentage of the cap, etc. -- but with Barnes it's really hard to get around that sentence: "Harrison Barnes is a max player." He might show up for some mid-level team, expand his game, and look like a star. He might also continue the same streak of frustrating, inconsistent, tantalizing but never satisfying play he's been dishing out since he announced he was going to North Carolina on Skype.
Nothing illustrates this wild-spending free agency summer more than "Harrison Barnes is about to get at least $94 million dollars."
He can't hit 3's.
That's really what it comes down to.
You can get past the defense which can be top level or only mediocre if he's run down. You can overlook his reliance on getting to the free throw line and the impact that has on his game in the playoffs. You can look past the fact that he has a great post-up game he almost never uses.
You can find ways all over the place to rationalize committing at the highest level to DeMar DeRozan... if he could only hit 3-pointers.
But he can't. He's a career 28-percent 3-point shooter. He shot 4 of 26 for 15 percent in this year's playoffs from deep. The NBA is 3-point crazy right now, it's a necessary element for efficiency, and everyone has shooters. If you're going in with DeMar DeRozan as a max, top-level, key component, you're going to be faced with what we call "The Math Problem" when it comes to teams like Golden State or Cleveland. Three points will always be more than two points and with DeRozan, you'll never keep pace. DeRozan is, at his heart, a product of the Kobe Bryant model. That comes with work ethic, that comes with fluidity and a penchant for midrange jumpers, and that comes with inefficiency.
The Raptors are about to commit five years to a guard who can't hit the most important shot in basketball right now. He's not a top-end playmaker, he's not a top-end defender, he's not a top-end rebounder, and in the playoffs, his game dissipates; he's a career 39 percent shooter from the field -- not from 3-point range, the field -- in the playoffs.
In 2002, DeRozan is a no-brainer max player. In 2016? Not so much.
Two years ago, Joakim Noah was viewed as one of the best centers in the league. He won the 2014 Defensive Player of the Year award and finished fourth in MVP voting. All of this seemed like the natural progression for Noah, who kept improving every year. But then in an instant, Noah's game began to decline.
Across the board, Noah's averages (points scored to rebounds to assists) have gone down since the beginning of the 2014-2015 season. Coupled with a season-ending injury last year, Noah's career seems to have reached an all-time low.
Despite Noah's decline, he remains one of the top free agents on the market this summer. His name holds a lot of cache and memories of his prominence are still fresh on everyone's minds. Plus Noah can still play. He is an excellent playmaker, can set solid screens and still has value defensively as a rim protector and communicator.
But the thing is, with two seasons of sub-par play, is Noah worth a max contract? The Knicks reportedly may think along those lines, and teams like the Warriors, Timberwolves and Wizards have reportedly expressed interest in Noah. At 31, Noah could have a bounce-back year in a new situation, but if his struggles continue, the amount of money he will likely get paid this summer could be seen as excessive.
Playing with LeBron James has obviously helped Dellavedova's career winning-wise and now it seems like it will also help him financially. According to ESPN's Brian Windhorst, Dellavedova may get a $10 million offer sheet. Considering that Corey Joseph got a four-year $7.5 million deal with the Raptors last season after being a third-string guard and coupled with the salary cap exploding, a $10 million offer sheet seems about right for Dellavedova.
Dellavedova's skill set -- energetic defense, solid-not-great shooter -- doesn't really scream a $10 million player. Yet this summer is going to be wild and Dellavedova will likely take full advantage of the craziness.
