Kevin Durant is the biggest free agent available this summer, that's no surprise. Al Horford, too, is the kind of player who can shift a franchise's future. But maybe the most intriguing free agent outside of Durant is Memphis Grizzlies point guard Mike Conley.
Here's what you need to know about Conley's free agency summer.
CONLEY'S SITUATION
Conley is set to be a free agent in the biggest free agency money year of all time. He's a veteran looking for a max contract. Conley has been with the Grizzlies since he was drafted in 2007, and has helped lead them to the playoffs for the last six seasons, making the Western Conference finals in 2013. He was instrumental in convincing Marc Gasol to re-sign on a five-year deal last summer.
When asked how difficult it would be to leave his friend Gasol, on a 1-to-10 scale, Conley replied "an 11." For his part, Gasol told CBS Sports earlier this year that Conley needs to take emotion out of it, and he'll support his friend's decision no matter what, but clearly, Conley's relationship not only with Gasol, but fellow Grit-Grind stars Tony Allen and Zach Randolph will play a part in his decision.
Conley is not seeking superstar status in one of the league's big markets. He's also not someone who loves change or attention. He's comfortable in Memphis, and has enjoyed being a part of something special in the community. The Grizzlies aren't just a team competing for an NBA title, they're a pillar of the community in Memphis that has made a real difference in the city.
At the same time, Conley will be 29 next summer. This is likely his last major contract. He's seeking a five-year maximum deal if he stays with the Grizzlies, according to reports, and said at his exit interviews that part of his decision on whether to stay will be based on what the Grizzlies intend to do, or realistically can do, in free agency to augment the team and add shooters to help them contend.
There is some speculation that Conley is not worth the max, based on his injury status and the fact he's not a big-time scorer. Setting aside his top-level leadership and floor generalship which is vital to everything the Grizzlies do (Marc Gasol has to get the ball in order to do anything with it), Conley's a solid shooter (37 percent from 3-point range for his career for a team that has always struggled to hit 3's), and a top flight defender. He's smart, savvy, with change-of-pace moves and able to finish in traffic.
Conley's struggled with foot injuries the past four seasons. He suffered foot problems in 2013 and since then has dealt with issues relating to compensating for them. His teammates have actually suggested he change his shoes. He missed the last two months of the season with Achilles soreness which caused him to wear a boot for most of the year. He's undecided on whether he'll play for Team USA this summer.
Even if you want to make the argument that Conley's not worth the max in a vacuum, he's definitely worth the max A) in this market, and B) to the Grizzles. He's getting paid.
THE GRIZZLIES' SITUATION
Memphis remains incredibly confident about it chances to retain Conley. GM Chris Wallace has said several times what he told CBS Sports earlier this year, that Memphis has never failed to retain their own free agents during this Grit-Grind run. They've extended Conley, re-signed Zach Randolph twice along with Marc Gasol and and Tony Allen. They haven't lost a core player, despite their market disadvantage.
The Grizzlies offer Conley continuity, the most money, his good friend Gasol, a chance to cement a legacy in Memphis, which he has said matters to him, and a team that has made the playoffs six straight years.
On the other hand...
- Reports have surfaced, most notably from New York, that league executives think the odds of him leaving are increasing. This could be some sort of tradecraft maneuver to create an environment they want, but it's out there. The Mavericks and Spurs are discussed as having interest in Conley as well.
- The Grizzlies are old. Randolph and Allen are past their primes. Much of the rest of the roster is made up of free agents. The team can create $35 to $45 million in cap space outside of Conley's $15 million cap hold, and would have to pay Conley roughly $22 to $25 million depending on what the final cap number comes out to. (Max salaries are percentages of the salary cap.) Can they re-sign Conley and add a dynamic shooter, or are they going to roll back the same ragtag band of hustle players and poor shooters they've had for years?
- The Grizzlies do not present the best chance at winning a title. The Grizzlies would have to find some great free agents, have a special year, get Conley and Gasol healthy for the entire year, and still need some luck just to reach the conference finals, let alone the Finals. You can't objectively look at their chances and say the Grizzlies are a title contender as currently constructed, which is in part why Conley has pressured the team to add free agents.
The Grizzlies should be considered the odds-on favorite to re-sign Conley, based on all factors, but in free agency, nothing is a sure thing and there are reasons to believe he could sign elsewhere.
THE SUITORS
San Antonio Spurs: Tony Parker is the biggest holdup here. If Parker, a future Hall-of-Famer, is really willing to come off the bench, this makes a lot of sense. But the Spurs would have to turn that caliber of player into a backup point guard. The easy comparison is Manu Ginobili, but remember that Ginobili has almost always played that role; it's a different dynamic. Parker has run the Spurs' offense for 13 years; this would be giving the keys to someone else. That's very un-Spurs like. With Conley, Kawhi Leonard, and LaMarcus Aldridge, the Spurs are definitely better, even than the 67-win team they were last season, but not necessarily better than the Thunder. Parker remains great for long stretches, and Conley's not the same point guard as Parker, especially when it comes to getting up and down the floor in transition or pushing the pace.
The Spurs should be considered the biggest threat to the Grizzlies for Conley, because they're the Spurs, but the fit isn't a seamless one.
Dallas Mavericks: The Mavericks haven't had a lot of luck signing the top free agents. Deron Williams, Carmelo Anthony, Dwight Howard, all have passed on the Mavs in recent years, and let's not even get started on DeAndre Jordan. But they are a top notch organization with an owner willing to leap into the luxury tax, which isn't financially feasible in Memphis. They have Dirk Nowitzki who keeps plugging on as an All-Star caliber player. With the cap room Dallas has, they could add Conley and another key free agent and be right back in the thick of things in the West.
In the thick of things, though, that doesn't put the Mavericks into title contention. Conley can look at how the Grizzlies played Golden State two years ago and feel confident they could beat them with some more firepower. Nowitzki is still great... but not the guy he was in 2011. Conley would need to be the best player on the team, and that gets tough. Dallas offers a bigger market that isn't New York or Los Angeles, and a lot of creature comforts, plus it's in proximity to northwest Arkansas where he's spent a lot of time. But the fit here is not perfect.
Houston Rockets: Sure, let's throw in all three Texas teams here. The Rockets have a fast-paced coach and no post presence (with Dwight Howard gone) and James Harden is ball dominant. It's not a great fit, but Conley, Harden, and another free agent would be very good if they found the right fit. (Especially someone like Al Horford.)
The Rockets have money to burn and have been a good team for nearly 15 years, but there are big questions about their team culture and going to Houston does not put Conley in a position to win championships. It's not hard to believe the Grizzlies will be a better team than the Rockets would be with him next year if Conley re-signs.
New York Knicks: Conley is the rare guard who fits the Triangle exceptionally well, if Jeff Hornacek looks to run it. He can set the offense, thrown the post-entry pass, and is a great off-ball cutter and spot-up shooter. He doesn't need the ball in his hands and he can defend, which they need. He's not a great fit if Jeff Hornacek wants to push the ball, but Hornacek has done a lot of great things with the point guards he's had. There are worse basketball fits.
Culturally, though, it's rough. Conley's not looking for the media scrutiny and big-market flash that New York provides. He could handle it, no problem, it's just not a priority. The Knicks are unstable, and Phil Jackson is widely speculated to leave next year. Conley is willing to feed high-usage players like Carmelo Anthony, but it's not a great fit for how he wants to play.
More than anything, the addition of Derrick Rose kind of makes this moot. Playing Rose and Conley together would be interesting, but undersized, and would put Conley in a rough position to guard bigger players constantly. There's not enough basketball to go around, and the Knicks are more likely to pursue a post player with their cap space.
Brooklyn Nets: The Nets were once considered a prime destination for Conley, based on his relationship with then-coach Lionel Hollins, who was instrumental in grooming Conley to be a star. But Conley and Hollins were never so close as to be inseparable and Conley had the same conflicts with Hollins that all players do. Conley will play for any coach, he's extremely coachable, so that was never really a great reason to think he'd go there.
There's new coaching there anyway, so that reason is out.
The Nets have very little to offer Conley in terms of basketball other than the promise of a rebuilding organization with few assets and Brook Lopez who is hurt for most of the year.
Indiana Pacers: This one's interesting. Conley's from Indiana, and it would have made a lot of sense... before they traded George Hill for Jeff Teague, who's kind of a light version of Conley. If Conley were interested, they could theoretically trade Teague elsewhere and get some good value back, but are they really dong that after they just got everyone excited about Teague? Conley with Paul George, Thaddeus Young and Myles Turner would be very good, but the market offers few advantages, and they've had real problems selling out the arena even in years they were East contenders.
Chicago Bulls: After moving Rose, the Bulls have cap space and a hole at point guard. They seem to be in flux, given the Jimmy Butler trade rumors and the fact that Pau Gasol and Joakim Noah are both gone this summer. It's not certain what Conley would be joining other than Butler, presumably, but it's the Bulls, in a big Midwest city. Hoiberg's up-tempo offense doesn't go exactly with what we've seen from Conley in Memphis, but the abundance of mid-range jumpers it produces is right in his sweet spot. It's an intriguing but not perfect fit.
Los Angeles Lakers: I mean, they have D'Angelo Russell, but they're also desperate, so I guess it could happen. This would be shocking, quite frankly.
