The playoffs begin in just over two weeks days. Weâre figuring out day by day whoâs in and whoâs out. But who are the really dangerous teams? Not the best teams -- you have power rankings and the standings for that. Being good in the regular season is different from being dangerous in a playoff series. Your position impacts it. Some teams are really dangerous to a No. 4 seed but helpless against a No. 2 seed.
Who can make a run? Playoff threat rankings are here to help.
CANNON FODDER
16. The Blazersâ win over the Nuggets on Tuesday puts them firmly in the driverâs seat for the postseason. The trade for Jusuf Nurkic saved their season (and buried Denverâs playoff hopes as a consequence). They have momentum and a playoff-tested star in Damian Lillard.
Unfortunately, this teamâs defense is still garbage, and they are going to be matched up with one of the two best teams in the league. Portland would be in serious danger of still missing the playoffs if its late schedule wasnât butter; the Warriors and Spurs are not butter.
Best-case scenario: Nurkic abuses Draymond Green and the Warriorsâ propensity for not going full bore shows up as Portland takes the Warriors to a six-game series which once again makes the Blazers seem better than they actually are.
Worst-case scenario: The Blazers squander all this momentum, Denver sneaks past them and Portland faces a huge payroll next season for a non-playoff squad.
15. Indiana Pacers
They would be higher on this list if their chemistry wasnât so bad. Every loss comes with a bonus Paul George quote that, were I a Pacers fan, would make me want to slam my head into a wall. Their path actually isnât that bad for a decent run, but theyâve been so painfully inconsistent and are struggling at the worst time. I do want it noted that the idea of the always-playoff-dubious Raptors or the untested Celtics facing a Pacers team with Paul George, Jeff Teague and Myles Turner makes me nervous.
Best-case scenario: In an abject stunner, George takes over as the best player on the floor in six of the seven games and behind smart playmaking and some good fortune, the Pacers upset the Celtics, Wizards or Raptors, changing the entire narrative of their season.
Worst-case scenario: Chicagoâs weak schedule combined with Indianaâs tough one winds up costing the Pacers a playoff appearance after all, and George starts formulating an exit strategy from the Hoosier state.
14. Atlanta Hawks
Pretty low for a fourth seed, huh? Well, couple things. The Hawks are still without Paul Millsap, and it seems unlikely heâll be at his best when he returns. They have been losing left and right. So much of their success hinges on Dennis Schröder, who either looks âpretty goodâ or âthe worst possible version of mediocre.â And because of where the Hawks are, they have a high probability of facing the Cavaliers in the second round even if they do win. (Atlanta could wind up fifth if Cleveland tops Boston for the No. 1 seed, and if Cleveland stays at No. 2, itâs just as likely Atlanta slips to sixth or even seventh.) While none of the East teams will be favored against the Cavs, weâve seen Hawks-Cavs three times, for eight games. We know how that goes. At least with the others, thereâs intrigue.
Best-case scenario: The Hawksâ formula of defense, coupled with a Dwight Howard resurgence and good play from Schröder, boosts them to the 4-5 matchup, where they take out the Raptors when Torontoâs stars predictably struggle. Then the Celtics find the same problems as last season, even with Al Horford, as the Hawksâ defense puts the clamps on Isaiah Thomas and the Celticsâ offense drowns. The Hawks make a shocking run to the conference finals ... only to get swept by the Cavs for a third straight season. So it was written, so it shall ever be.
Worst-case scenario: Atlantaâs health problems drive it into a 2-7 matchup with ... the Cavs. Liquor stores frequented by Hawks fans in Atlanta have record sales over the course of four games.
YOU DONâT WANT TO SEE THEM IN THE FIRST ROUND
13. Miami Heat
Theyâre under .500. Dion Waiters is still out. Theyâve lost three of their past five. But this Heat team still finds ways to step up and extend their season, like the big win against Detroit on Tuesday. They have shooting, good guard play, a high-production big man and a great coach. If Waiters gets back (out at least two more games; X-rays negative on his ankle), this is just not a team you want to face. Not with their momentum, physicality and discipline.
Best-case scenario: So hereâs the problem ... you can look at any team and say âWell, sure, they could knock off the Cavs,â because thatâs sports. But you donât really mean it. With Miami, however, you can actually see a scenario where the Cavs defense looks like it has in the regular season, and the Heat are motivated, despite none of them being around for the LeBron era, and they hit a bunch of 3s, and LeBron gets mad at teammates and refuses to just carry them, and then ... it just seems crazy, right? Iâll just say that you donât worry about the Cavs in the first round, seriously, against anyone else. But with the Heat ... you sit up in your chair a little bit, at the very least.
Worst-case scenario: The Bullsâ easy schedule boosts them past the Heat and all this run did for Miami in the end was ruin what could have been great draft positioning and force it to make tough decisions about who to keep this summer.
12. Theyâre lower than their East counterparts because they have a tougher gantlet to pass through. The Eastâs parity (or mediocrity, depending on definitions) means that anyone can be beaten, anyone can make a run. For the Grizzlies, they would need the exact right situation, which theyâre probably not going to get, to make a run. They need the sixth seed (now that 4-5 is out of reach) and then a toppling of Houston to make the kind of run they need. Hereâs the thing with the Grizzlies: Their playoff showing will be better than about half of the teams above them. But their chances of actually winning are worse. Thatâs just the reality with an aging team thatâs limited offensively. Theyâre just not as likely to go bonkers from 3-point range for a series. Plus their defense has fallen off a cliff since the All-Star break. They seem like a team wondering what itâs even doing here.
Best-case scenario: They sneak up on Houston or San Antonio, and push to seven games in a hard-fought series that frustrates the fans with the concrete ceiling theyâre under, but at least acquits the season.
Worst-case scenario: The Warriors or Spurs rip through them like an industrial drill as players blame a new system for pushing them away from a winning formula, again.
11. Milwaukee Bucks
If youâre looking for a team to start considering picking for an upset run, start with Milwaukee. They have length, they have shooting, they have a superstar in Giannis Antetokounmpo who can take over the game, and they have a good shot at a favorable bracket. They wonât be favored in any series they play in ... but this team is still lurking.
Best-case scenario: They jump into the fifth spot, the Raptors underwhelm again, Giannis lifts them over the top, cementing him as a star, and they give the Celtics all they can handle in a 1-4. Or they take it to LeBron and company in the same manner, putting them on the NBA map.
Worst-case scenario: The Wizards, Cavs or Celtics dismantle them in a first-round series and their season was just a rollercoaster that finished âmeh.â
BETTER THAN THEIR RECORD
10. Utah Jazz
Itâs hard to trust teams that havenât proven it. The argument for the Utah Jazz? They have no discernible weaknesses. They are 13th in offense, third in defense. Theyâre athletic, they have veterans, they have wings, they have guards, they have bigs, they have good coaching. The argument against them? They donât have a signature. They donât have a formula where you say âIf they get X from Player Y, and if they are able to do Z, then they win.â And they have no experience in this situation, as a team. In the East? Theyâre the second-best team and a major challenge to Cleveland. In the West? Itâs hard to have confidence theyâll get out of the first round.
Best-case scenario: They top a good performance from the Clippers to give them legitimacy, and carry confidence and heart into a seven-game series with the Warriors, stealing Game 2 on the road to put a little pressure on them, and earning their respect.
Worst-case scenario: OKC or the Clippers show that theyâre a paper tiger, not ready for prime time, and they face the prospect of losing Gordon Hayward in free agency this summer. Also, even if they keep him and George Hill, how do they get better?
9. You know they can make the conference finals. Donât act like you really think they canât. âWill they?â is another question. Because you can also say that you know they can lose in the first round, easy. This team goes from moments where you remember how good they can be, to moments where you wonder why they keep throwing the same broken machine at the wall and hoping it finally works. The biggest thing is that you have to say the only way they make the NBA Finals is if someone else does their dirty work and knocks off the Warriors.
Best-case scenario: The Spurs grab the No. 1 seed. The Clippers handle an inexperienced Jazz team. San Antonio finds the same matchup problems as two years ago. Someone else beats the Warriors. The Clippersâ superior talent lands them in the Finals, where, win or lose, Chris Paulâs career is validated and the team resolves to keep the core together over the summer.
Worst-case scenario: Losing to Utah would be disappointing, but losing to Houston -- two years removed from having them on the ropes at 3-1 -- would be brutal, especially seeing how much better the Rockets have gotten while the Clippers have stagnated. A frustrating first-round exit leads to the implosion of a core that was once considered a powerhouse.
8. When judging how dangerous a playoff team is, the biggest thing I wonder is âWhatâs their formula, and does it work in the playoffs?â Hereâs the Thunderâs formula:
Great defense plus Russell Westbrook plus experience plus favorable matchups equals win. Thereâs a formula there. And this team is tough. Tough counts. Their offense probably doesnât have the firepower. But everyone kept waiting for Andre Roberson to miss against San Antonio last season, and he delivered. Weird things happen in the playoffs in terms of shooters hitting shots.
Best-case scenario: The Thunder catch the Rockets flat-footed with Mike DâAntoniâs usual playoff foibles, and Westbrook powers them to a win that could make the MVP vote look dubious if he doesnât win. The Thunder beat up the Spurs for seven games, and Westbrook goes down slinging, earning a standing ovation from the Spurs crowd for his season.
Worst-case scenario: Memphis sneaks up and catches them ... and the Spurs beat out the Warriors for the No. 1 seed. They get four games of Kevin Durant shoving his decision in their face as Draymond Green clowns them in a sweep.
7. Theyâre higher than the Jazz and Clippers because their path is easier. Have the Raptors learned from their playoff foibles? Last year was the least impressive conference finals run Iâve ever seen, and that includes the Jazz making it in 2007 with Carlos Boozer as their second-best player. Thatâs the big thing here. Typically you say âThis team knows how to win playoff series.â But Iâm not sure they do. Paul George ran out of gas and Hassan Whiteside got hurt. If those two things donât happen, the Raptors donât make the Eastern Conference finals last year. I need to see them actually have a playoff run where they look good before I believe.
Best-case scenario: Kyle Lowry and DeMar DeRozan both finally play consistently well in a playoff series, they smack the Hawks and breeze into the second round, where they dismantle the Celtics, who they have had the number of lately. They return to the conference finals, and, with a weaker Cavs team with a questionable defense ... lose in seven.
Worst-case scenario: Some scrub lower team knocks them off for the third time in four seasons and then the summer brings major changes with Kyle Lowryâs free agency the biggest looming question.
SUPER-THREATS OR PAPER TIGERS?
6. I might genuinely pick the Rockets to win the Eastern Conference, were they in it. I would at least think itâs a coin flip. They are dangerous. Exceptionally so. They are lower because, guess what? Tougher road again! They have to probably beat two 60-win teams to get to the NBA Finals! Thatâs crazy! But donât sleep on Houston. If DâAntoniâs style is ever going to work, itâs going to work in this era. Heâs not running up against the 2005 or â07 grind-them-to-oblivion Spurs anywhere in these playoffs.
Best-case scenario: The Spurs lack a playoff gear, and after dismantling Westbrook in the first round, the Rockets get past the Spurs in a tough six-game series. In the conference finals, they get hot, I mean blistering, from 3-point range, and beat the Warriors with their own medicine. They ride a 2009-Magic-like wave to the NBA Finals, where the Cavs, exhausted from three straight Finals trips, with a lesser squad that struggles with Houstonâs pace, run into the ground. James Harden wins MVP, Finals MVP and the trophy returns to Clutch City.
Worst-case scenario: DâAntoniâs history of playoff struggles comes back to bite them and the Rockets go down in the first round, ruining what has been such a promising season and tainting Hardenâs potential MVP season.
5. Big guards. Thatâs the biggest reason I like this team so much. They have good role players, shooters who can defend and bigs who can hammer the glass and protect the rim. But with John Wall and Bradley Beal, itâs two big, athletic guards who can score and make plays, and theyâve actually won playoff series, unlike some other East teams. Truth be told, I think this is the second-best team in the East. But the Wizardsâ defense has been dreadful since the All-Star Break, and their path could wind up being tougher than necessary. I think Scott Brooks deserves COY consideration, but his playoff crunch time chops are suspect, and I have some concern theyâre going through a 2014 Pacers/2015 Hawks letdown after peaking in January.
But I still really like their chances.
Best-case scenario: They hold onto the third seed and dismantle their first-round opponent. Boston slides back into the second spot and canât handle Beal, who goes off and carries them. The Cavs jump out to a 2-1 lead, but the Wizards win Games 4 and 5 in Cleveland, and the Cavs donât have the emotional reserves for another comeback. The Wizards get destroyed in the NBA Finals, but who cares, they made the NBA Finals!
Worst-case scenario: The Wizards find out what itâs like to be on the other end of a playoff upset as the Bucks or Heat catch them. Their defense is broken, Beal gets injured and the Wizardsâ best season in decades goes down in flames. Peak Wizards.
4. Iâm a skeptic. I can cop to that. Small, ball-dominant point guard? Earthbound rim protector who struggles to score in clutch time? Bunch of young dudes? Team hasnât won a playoff series? There are a lot of ways to paint the Celtics as paper tigers. But look, they have surged after the All-Star break, taking over the No. 1 seed, which drastically changes how tough their road would be, and theyâve fixed their woeful defense. Isaiah Thomas has silenced all haters so far, so why not now?
Best-case scenario: They hold onto the first seed. Atlanta or Milwaukee topple Toronto, and Boston demolishes its first-round opponent, looking like its No. 1 seed status. The Celtics run through the upset fifth seed with the Cavaliers in a grueling seven-game series with Washington. Fresh and confident, Boston wins all its home games, narrowly, to upset Cleveland and return to the NBA Finals. The Celtics are run out of the gym by the Warriors, but oh, thatâs right, they also have the No. 1 pick and trade assets.
Worst-case scenario: It turns out they are paper tigers and they suffer an embarrassing first-round loss to the Heat, as Danny Ainge finally goes nuclear on making trades to make this team a serious contender.
HEAVY FAVORITES
3. The champs are third. I couldnât drop them anymore, because they have LeBron James and theyâve earned the benefit of the doubt. But this team looks flawed right now. The defense is a mess and they look tired and old. Thatâs how the 2014 Heat -- the third year of a James run -- looked. Kevin Love hasnât been the same since injury. J.R. Smith has had a really hard season on and off the court. They lost Andrew Bogut, who they badly needed. If they make the Finals, would you be surprised? No. If they won it, even with Kevin Durant on the Warriors, would you be surprised? Nope. But they are not as dangerous as the top two, not right now.
Best-case scenario: The Playoff Cavs show up, and tear through the East. They sweep the Heat, they beat the Wizards in five, and then, as an underdog to the Celtics, James burns down the Garden like he did in 2012, only faster, winning in five games. They take Games 1 and 7 in Oracle to secure Jamesâ fourth title, fourth Finals MVP and defend The Land.
Worst-case scenario: The Wizards or Celtics expose them in the conference finals, leading to even more questions about Jamesâ legacy.
2. Recency bias is striking hard here. I donât like the Spursâ playoff formula. Tony Parker and Pau Gasol defending the pick and roll? Trying to score with Patty Mills and Dewayne Dedmon on the floor? Kawhi Leonardâs spotty history as the No. 1 offensive threat? There are questions here. But ... come on. Headed into Wednesday nightâs game against the Warriors, the Spurs are undefeated this season against the Dubs and Cavs, even if Golden State rested in one game. They are 3-1 against Houston. They are going to win 60-plus games again with a top-10 offense and the No. 1 defense. They have the best perimeter defender in the league, who also happens to be an MVP candidate in one of the best races for it, ever.
Come on, itâs the Spurs. Gotta put respect on that name.
Best-case scenario: They crush the Blazers in a 1-8 after taking home court. They handle the Jazz in five games. Home-court advantage is the difference as the Warriors go cold in Game 7 at AT&T Center, and the Spurs advance to their seventh NBA Finals. Thereâs no Ray Allen to save James this time and Gregg Popovich adds his sixth titl, as Leonard cements himself as the leagueâs best player.
Worst-case scenario: The Clippers hit them out of nowhere in the second round, as Leonard canât guard any of their major weapons, rendering him defensively limited while Chris Paul dissects Pau Gasol with ruthless abandon and DeAndre Jordan gives LaMarcus Aldridge fits. The Spurs head home in the second round for the second year in a row after a remarkable regular season.
1. Come on, who else? The Warriors have the team that won 73 games last season, give or take some role players, and added Kevin Durant, whoâs going to be back. Is it closer than it was in preseason? Sure. Is it close? Not really. From any objective determination, the Warriors should win the NBA title.
Best-case scenario: They destroy everything in their path on the way to the NBA Finals, taking Game 3 from the Spurs to crush their spirits in the conference finals, and then sweep the Cavaliers. Durant wins Finals MVP, securing first-ballot Hall of Fame status and putting him on the map as the best player in the league. They are truly light years ahead.
Worst-case scenario: They blow a 3-1 lead. I donât know who would be worst to do that to. The Clippers, right? Yeah. the Clippers. They blow a 3-1 lead to the Clippers and the Crying Jordan memes fall like rain.
