Your weekly look at the NBA and what you need to know about the standings and schedule for the week of Jan. 2.
Inside the standings
Click here for the full NBA standings.
A quick tiers check to get us started. Yes, all of this is too early, but this is just to let you know where teams stand in case you haven't been paying attention.
East No. 1
The Raptors lost a little ground on the Cavs on this West Coast road trip, now 2.5 games back. Losses like the one to the Suns are what kill you when you're chasing the big dog. The Cavs can afford a loss to the Pistons or whoever every now and again, because they aren't in coin flips very often, whereas there are a whole host of teams that Toronto is a coin flip to win or lose to.
Their schedules have been similar, and Toronto actually has a higher SRS (which factors strength of schedule and point differential) over at Basketball Reference. If the Raptors win their next two games against Boston, they're a virtual lock for the 2-seed barring a disaster.
East home-court first round
- *Locks: Cavaliers, Raptors
- In the hunt: Celtics, Hornets, Bucks
- Within range: Knicks, Hawks
- Alive: Pacers, Wizards
There's not enough separation yet to rule out any of these teams. Boston is a near-lock at this point, having gotten healthy and ridden out the storm the way it has. The defense still makes me a little queasy, but there's just too much talent there to have serious doubts. Charlotte would be my favorite for the No. 4 seed. It's clearly above Milwaukee and the rest of the East. But the Hornets have a penchant for dropping games they need to win. Charlotte and Boston have had real trouble with teams over .500. Atlanta has gotten itself back together like a friend at a party who throws up early and rallies, standing just a half-game behind the Hornets. It would be a disappointment if the Hornets entered the postseason without home-court advantage .
Who can stay out of the Cavaliers' side of the bracket? That's, realistically, the bigger question other than home-court advantage in the Eastern Conference. This is where things will get complicated if the Raptors hang around. You would much rather be the sixth seed in the East with the Cavs in the No. 1 spot. Yes, you have to go on the road against a better team, but none of those teams after Cleveland scares you. If you want to make a run to the Eastern Conference finals outside of the No. 2 seed (and I consider the Raptors a near-lock for the No. 2), you have to go through the 2-7 or 3-6 matchup.
To put it another way: I would rather be in that range of teams with the Knicks, Hawks, etc., than in the 4-5 Hornets-Bucks spot.
However, if Cleveland somehow doesn't get the No. 1 seed, then it gets all crazy.
I'm bumping Chicago and Detroit from consideration for now.
*As much of a lock as you can be in January, based on what we know, anyway
East 7th-8th seeds
- In the hunt: Hawks, Bucks, Knicks, Pacers, Bulls, Pistons, Wizards, Magic
Eight teams separated by three games, and none of them very good. Welcome to the East. These teams are all decent, though, and if they hit their stride late in the year, the way they did last year, it could make for some fun. Every time a team starts to surge, they regress (see: Bucks, Milwaukee). Every time a team starts to fall off they crawl their way back in.
I can't see Orlando hanging in here past March 1. They're third-to-last in the East in Simple Rating System from Basketball Reference, and their schedule is going to get tougher. But then, they just keep finding wins, so maybe I'm off there. The Bulls and Pistons are in full-on meltdown. None of these teams are particularly happy with their situation, but I get the sense that Milwaukee is closer to the sixth seed than out.
I dropped Miami last week, and of course Brooklyn and Philadelphia have been pretty much out of it in terms of the playoffs for a while.
West No. 1 and No. 2 seed
- Near locks: Warriors, Spurs
- In the hunt: Rockets
I'm putting Houston in this bracket, again. They're just 1.5 games behind the Spurs and have figured out how to weather the storm without Clint Capela. (Hint: play not-great teams.) San Antonio is just vulnerable enough to think they can be overtaken. Now, the Warriors are a different matter, but realistically, it would just take one bad stretch from Golden State -- which notably they have not had in three years -- for Houston to catch. They're "in" this thing for the No. 1 but not really. The No. 2, however, is within range. We keep waiting for the Spurs to fall off, and they just ... don't.
And yet, the Spurs are Spurs.
West home-court first round
San Antonio is going to win enough games. It's just what they do. I like Houston's ceiling more than the Spurs' at this point, but you just do not doubt San Antonio. Despite being a 6-seed two years ago, betting against the Spurs never goes well. So the Warriors, Spurs and Rockets are going to take three of those spots. What about the fourth and last home-court spot?
Two weeks ago, I said I was marking the Thunder off for the time being and that they would immediately make me look stupid for doing so.
Yup.
The Clippers are falling down a mine shaft so fast they can't stop their momentum, and in the meantime, something funny started happening with the Thunder. They've started putting away bad teams, winning by double-digits. That's a big deal with how this team has played. So now the Thunder are tied for fourth in the West and seem to be figuring out more and more. Their January schedule is brutal, so if they make it through this stretch, they're going to be in great shape.
The Jazz and Grizzlies are both equally likely to snag that fourth spot, and if the Clippers can stop wallowing in the corner like they're the sad dude at a bar during a blues song, there's no reason they can't get right back into it. This could be really fun down the stretch.
West 8th seed
Some changes to this gigantic pile of "ugh." The Pelicans have gutted out enough wins to get back into this thing. If we're looking at talent, the Pelicans are, I guess, the best team outside of Portland? The Kings never handle prosperity. The Blazers' schedule is going to get easier, which could prop the door open for them. Denver really needed a strong late December and instead they bobbled the finish.
This is one of those "It's not competitive, but it's close" kind of races, and the winner gets obliterated by Golden State in the first round anyway.
What to watch this week -- Game(s) of the Week
| DATE | AWAY | HOME | TIME | TV/STREAM |
| Thursday, Jan 5 |  |  | 8 p.m. ET | TNT/TNT App |
Matchup of Valuable Players: Westbrook. Harden. Engage. The two MVP leaders, the triple-double machines, clash in a fast-break lunatic game. The Thunder are on a road-road back-to-back, which, by the way, is absurd that these Thursday marquee games keep featuring players on a back to back. But this will be a frenetic game between two Western Conference playoff teams with the most amazing players in terms of individual performances in the league, with a lot on the line. The season series is 1-1. Whoever wins this guarantees they won't lose the head-to-head tiebreaker, which could be the difference between the 3-seed and San Antonio in the second round, or Golden State. Or it could be the difference in the 2- and 3-seed, and home-court in a second-round matchup.
Watch this game.
The Great Big Man Week: Karl-Anthony Towns faces Joel Embiid on Tuesday (7 p.m. ET, League Pass). Nikola Jokic takes on DeMarcus Cousins on Tuesday (9 p.m. ET, League Pass). Giannis Antetokounmpo faces Kristaps Porzingis (if Porzingis is healthy) on Wednesday (7:30 p.m ET, League Pass), and on Friday (8 p.m. ET, ESPN). If you love battles of great, big, athletic players, this week is for you.
Rivalry night: Thursday features Warriors-Blazers (10:30 p.m. ET, TNT) and Grizzlies-Clippers (10:30 p.m. ET, league pass) in two battles of teams with genuine dislike of one another. Both should be blowouts because of injuries in the Clippers' case and Blazers-ness in the case of Portland, but there's also a good chance these games get a little intense. Who says rivalries are dead? (I do. They are, but still, these games will be fun.)
