Now that the Cleveland Cavaliers have made it two straight NBA Finals appearances -- and six straight for LeBron James and James Jones -- they await their opponent, the winner of Monday's Western Conference finals Game 7. If the Oklahoma City Thunder wins, they'll get another crack at LeBron James. Last time, the James-led Miami Heat took down Kevin Durant, Russell Westbrook and Co. in the 2012 Finals.
If the Golden State Warriors make it three straight after going down 3-1, we'll get a rematch of last year's Finals when the Warriors took down a battered Cavs team in six games. The Cavs would have a chance to prove the argument the Warriors had luck on their side by winning it all without facing a complete Cleveland squad.
So, which matchup should the Cavs prefer?
Why the Cavs should want the Thunder
Home-court advantage: 50-19. That is the record of teams with home-court advantage in the Finals dating to 1947, when the NBA was called the BAA. Cleveland would have home court vs. OKC (57-25 in the regular season; OKC was 55-27). While the bulk of Finals history falls under the 2-3-2 format, Game 1 at home remains an overwhelming advantage. Teams winning Game 1 at home are 41-11 in the Finals, according to WhoWins.com.
One team breaking through without home-court advantage was the 2012 Heat. They lost Game 1 in Oklahoma City before ripping off four straight to win in five. Durant was incredible but James and the Heat emerged victorious. Why is that? That leads us to our next reason.
James almost always beats Durant: LeBron and K.D. have faced each other 21 times in their careers. LeBron's teams are 17-4 vs. Durant's. Some of that came at the start of Durant's career when Seattle/OKC was rebuilding and James' squads won six straight over the future MVP. But the trend still holds up: LeBron's teams have won seven of the past 10.
And there is that 4-1 NBA Finals record from 2012 when a very young Thunder team surprisingly made the Finals. The veteran Miami team took advantage, but Durant was great -- averaging more than over 30 points and shooting 54.8/39.4/83.9, but it wasn't enough.
In regular-season matchups, Durant shoots a better percentage from the 3-point line and the charity stripe. He also blocks more shots than LeBron (1.0 compared to 0.9 per game). But James has the advantage in every other category, including points per game.
You don't bring a Dion Waiters to a J.R. Smith shootout (a.k.a. the math problem): The Cavs have have become one of the league's best 3-point shooting teams the past two years. This season, the Cavs had the third-most attempts and finished seventh in percentage, after finishing No. 2 in attempts and fifth in percentage last season. In these playoffs, they've been a supernova by knocking down 43.4 percent of slightly more than 33 attempts per game.
That brings us to the math problem of three being greater than two, which is something the Thunder have been able to manage, but it still leaves you open to losing the battle from the 3-point line. Over the past two seasons, the Thunder have been pretty middle of the road in attempts (14th and 17th). Their percentage has needed improvement as well with them finishing 23rd and 17th.
Obviously, the Cavs have plenty of shooters. J.R. Smith, Kevin Love, Kyrie Irving, Channing Frye and Matthew Dellavedova have had great seasons shooting the deep ball. The Thunder have Durant, a spectacular shooter. Serge Ibaka has re-emerged as a reliable 3-point option in these playoffs after a poor season. Dion Waiters shot around the league average for the first time in his career this season. Russell Westbrook is historically bad. They also have Anthony Morrow, but his defensive lapses make him tough to play for long stretches.
The Thunder have done a good job of slowing down the 3-point shooting of the Warriors and the Spurs before them, but can they do that three straight rounds? This leads us to our final reason.
The Thunder would have to pull off the toughest playoff road in NBA history: The Thunder were challenged a bit mentally in the first round against Dallas. Then they took down a 67-win team in Round 2. They would have to take down a 73-win team in the conference finals before tangoing with LeBron and Co. in the Finals without home-court advantage the final three rounds. Is that asking too much?
And how spent would the Thunder be after taking down the Spurs and Warriors? That was the biggest question about OKC before the playoffs. How would they stay sharp mentally and physically enough to take out three straight elite opponents? While running that gauntlet would build their confidence, it's a lot to ask of an eventual NBA champion.
Why the Cavs should want the Warriors
Revenge: The Cavs put up a valiant effort during the 2015 Finals. They didn't have Irving after the first game when he broke his kneecap. Love was out after the first round when Kelly Olynyk pulled Love's shoulder out of its socket. Shumpert was banged up. Dellavedova needed an I.V. after one game because he was so dehydrated. LeBron went through extensive treatment seemingly every hour so he could perform at the highest level over the grueling minutes he was forced to play.
And Cleveland still led 2-1 before losing the next three. When some, including Irving, concluded the Warriors were lucky they did not to face Cleveland at full strength, the idea was mostly rejected. Without Irving and Love, the prevailing wisdom was the Cavs played better defense. With them, they would have had more scoring but would have been run out of the building trying to play at the Warriors' pace without better defenders on the floor.
Cleveland brings in a healthy squad this time. And with the way this squad is performing on offense, it may actually be the Warriors who are not equipped offensively to run with them.
Establish themselves as the standard for 3-point shooting over the Warriors: Last year, the Warriors put up the most 3-pointers in a postseason. They knocked down 240 3-pointers in 21 games, connecting on 37.4 percent. It wasn't the highest percentage in history, but the volume overwhelmed opponents. Sixth-seven of those 240 came in the Finals. Since then, the Warriors have been the standard from behind the arc with Stephen Curry and Klay Thompson -- arguably the two greatest 3-point shooters of all-time -- leading the long-distance assault.
The Cavs have been better this postseason by a wide margin. Their volume and accuracy have been unparalleled in NBA history during the playoffs. Only one team (2005 Phoenix Suns at 43.6 percent) has taken over 200 3-pointers in a postseason and hit a higher percentage. The Cavs are shooting 43.4 percent and they've already taken 202 3-pointers in 14 games. That's the third-highest playoff total in league history. Only the 2014 Spurs (203) and last year's Warriors have taken more.
This time the Warriors are dealing with health concerns: It's tough to watch Curry and think he's 100 percent after suffering an MCL sprain vs. Houston. Some reports said he's about 70 percent. The Warriors insist he's not injured, which isn't the same as saying he's healthy. And this time of year, you would have to be a cyborg to play this many games and be 100 percent. But when Curry is isolated against Steven Adams, he struggles to get by him or get separation.
You may say, "But Adams is a good defender." That he is. So why can't Curry get by or separate from Enes Kanter in similar situations? The Cavs could exploit an injury concern to the Warriors' best player this time around. Maybe by the time the Finals start, Curry would be much closer to 100 percent, but he also would be coming off a grueling seven-game series.
James gets to prove he's undeniably the best player in the world: For two seasons, Curry has been the talk of the league. James certainly is still discussed. But the league's first unanimous MVP has dominated jersey sales, shoe sales (non-Jordan, of course), Vines and media coverage. While LeBron will often say the right things regarding Curry, he also occasionally provides subtle subtext with his comments.
James even garnered more Finals MVP votes than Curry last year in a series he lost. You would be crazy to look at LeBron and deny that not only does he want to win a title for himself and Cleveland, but he also wants to remind everybody that he should be regarded as the best player in the NBA. He should have had a unanimous MVP back in 2013 before Curry became the first player in NBA history to get all of the first-place votes. He wants to remind the world that his body of work and his place in the NBA have more of an impact than what Curry has done in these two years.
Ability and tenure should matter when it comes to these things. And by taking down Curry in the Finals, he can provide that reminder in spectacular fashion. He may even attempt the defensive pressure he once put on another point guard who won MVP over him -- Derrick Rose. LeBron has been faster and more athletic this season than the previous two years. Has he gotten himself in shape to be able to contain Curry in a potential Finals rematch?
I'm sure he would love to show us.
Final Verdict
So which team should the Cavs hope they face in the Finals? They'll say it doesn't matter, and maybe the revenge factor means more to them than having the best chance to win. But I'm going with the Thunder as the opponent they should want to face. Not only does the 3-point shooting seem like a huge advantage for the Cavs when the Thunder struggle to shoot them at an elite level, but the road to the Finals just seems unfair for the Thunder.
If they can pull it off, then it's the most impressive single postseason run we've ever seen. It also seems impossible to take down 140 wins in the two rounds leading up to the tough Finals matchup. The Cavs are a deeper team with more weapons. I'm not sure you can say the same thing about them against the Warriors. That's not a knock on the Thunder, who have really stolen the show so far in these playoffs. The Cavs just have to feel better about their chances against an exhausted but resilient Thunder team than they do against a Warriors team with the confidence and experience to help them repeat as champs, should they make it to the Finals.
