The Cleveland Cavaliers and Golden State Warriors meet in a rematch of last year's Finals and it all begins Thursday with Game 1 in Oakland at Oracle Arena. The Cavaliers aren't short Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving this time, but the Warriors are also more confident than ever, having beaten the Cavs last year and coming off a thrilling comeback 3-1 win over the Thunder.
The Cavaliers are still searching for that elusive first championship, seeking to put all those old Cleveland ghosts to bed and cement LeBron James' legacy. Per SportsLine, the Cavs are heavy underdogs in this matchup, at +180 to win the title over the Warriors (-210).
The Warriors swept the season series, thumping the Cavaliers in their last regular-season meeting at Quicken Loans Arena in January. Cleveland must play the series of their lives to overcome the team with the best record in NBA history. So how do they pull that off?
The Cleveland Cavaliers will win the NBA Finals if ...
TRISTAN THOMPSON STEPS UP
The Cavaliers are going to look a lot smaller than last year. With Timofey Mozgov out of the rotation, the Cavaliers use Thompson for heavy minutes as center. Thompson is going to be a crucial player in this series on a number of levels. For starters, he has to have his head on a swivel, constantly protecting the rim. Being long and able to block shots isn't enough. He has to be smart enough to suss out those actions that reveal smooth cuts for Golden State and snuff them out.
But that's not all. Thompson also has to play the role of Steven Adams in the last series, defending Stephen Curry out to 30 feet and keeping a hand up at all times. Being able to force Curry inside may not be as good without another rim protector like Serge Ibaka hanging about (Kevin Love is not that), but it's still better than letting him fire off 3-pointers.
Thompson has to have a great series -- not a good one, a great one -- in order for the Cavaliers to have their bases covered.
Oh, and he has to stay out of foul trouble.
THE CAVS HEAT 'EM UP
The Cavs are the No. 1 team in the postseason on catch-and-shoot shots per Synergy Sports with a 44 percent field-goal percentage and a 65 percent effective field-goal percentage for a cool 1.289 points per possession. They set the record for most 3-point shots in a single playoff game, and they have six players with an effective field-goal percentage over 50 percent.
In other words, they've got some shooters.
The Thunder were able to push the Warriors in part because they had the raw firepower to keep up with the Warriors with Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. The Cavs have a similar level of firepower, but it's built upon the entire arsenal, not just two players' individual talents. The Cavaliers can hang with the Warriors going possession for possession scoring wise. It's whether they can handle the chaos the Warriors bring with them that's in question.
THEY RISE AND GRIND
The Cavaliers have the third-slowest pace of the playoffs, behind only Detroit (who they faced in the first round) and Memphis. The Cavaliers slow games down to a crawl and then bludgeon you with their offensive attack.
The Warriors, on the other hand, have the fastest pace in the playoffs, and thrive in chaos. Cleveland has to contain its turnovers at all costs, and somehow manage to win the battle on the boards to keep the Warriors from grabbing the ball and pushing, while also sprinting back to contain transition fastbreak points.
Does this sound like a lot for Kevin Love and Thompson to handle?
THEY LET SLEEPING DUBS LIE
The Thunder openly laughed at the idea of Steph Curry being underrated on defense, called him "a shooter" and continually sent more and more shade the Warriors' way. Whether that cost them or not is up for debate, but one thing is inescapable -- you do not want to push Golden State's buttons. You don't have to fear the champs, but you also do not need to feed them disrespect, which is like spinach for Popeye. Leave it be and let your game do your talking. Don't enable the Warriors' mutant disrespect gene to activate.
KEVIN LOVE CAN STAY ON THE FLOOR
The Warriors didn't tear Enes Kanter to pieces in pick and rolls like many thought they would. To be sure, there were games and stretches where Curry routinely picked on the defensively limited big man, but there was never a stretch where the Warriors just said "We're going to punish you for having this player out here."
That could happen with Love. You don't worry about short shots, perimeter shots or post-up moves from Kanter. You just worry about the offensive rebounds. The Warriors can stifle Love in the post and keep him bottled up in pick and pops, but he's still a threat. The easiest way to dispose of a threat is to remove it from the equation. Love's effort defensively has been fine throughout the playoffs, but it can't just be effort. Love has to actually make enough of a difference to where he wins his matchup, even if he's not schooling Draymond Green in the post. Outlet passes, deflections, hustle plays. Love has to give those non-star-quality efforts to keep himself on the floor.
They need him too much.
LEBRON IS THE BEST PLAYER IN THE SERIES
We all saw what LeBron James tried to do last year against the Warriors -- with a short-handed Cavs squad. The man was dropping a near-40-point triple-double on a nightly basis. It wasn't enough. James also suffered from a jump shot downturn that was more depressing than a Nine Inch Nails album. James has to rediscover his jumper and make Andre Iguodala pay out of the mid-post with it, to force the double-team on the triple-threat position instead of on the drive.
He has to keep his teammates involved, and play field general defensively, making sure the communication is right. He has to stay aggressive in getting to the rim, and commit himself defensively like Kevin Durant did, only he has to score even more efficiently. James has an opportunity here to steal back his title as the league's best player from Curry, but he also doesn't have the luxury Curry does of getting to pick and choose his spots.
James has to be omnipresent and omnipotent in this series. That's how good the Warriors are. That's what it's going to take.
Let's watch him try.
