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The U.S. men’s national team has one goal this year, and that’s to qualify for the 2018 World Cup. But an ugly, uncharacteristic start to the campaign sees the team off track when it comes to the road to Russia. Something has to change quick, and with new coach Bruce Arena, it is expected to change in the coming days, with a match against Honduras on Friday and a game at Panama on Tuesday. It’s not time to worry too much, but if the red, white and blue don’t get some results in the coming days, you can get ready to press this. 

So, with the pressure on, let’s take a look at how the USMNT could get to the World Cup. The team still has a really good chance. There are still eight out of 10 matches to be played, and the bad taste from the start can be erased with wins now. Let’s break it down. 

What needs to happen?

It’s quite simple -- accumulate enough points to make it. Right now, sitting in last place in the hexagonal, it’s not a place the United States is used to. Never in the history of the hexagonal has this team ever lost the first two games like it did in November, losing at home to Mexico 2-1 and on the road at Costa Rica 4-0. And only once in history has a team in CONCACAF lost its first two qualifiers in the hex and made the cup, and that was Trinidad and Tobago in 2006. 

CONCACAF World Cup qualifying standings

POS TEAM GP W D L GF GA GD PTS

1

Costa Rica

2

2

0

0

6

0

+6

6

2

Mexico

2

1

1

0

2

1

+1

4

3

Panama

2

1

1

0

1

0

+1

4

4

Honduras

2

1

0

1

3

2

+1

3

5

Trinidad & Tobago

2

0

0

2

1

5

-4

0

6

United States

2

0

0

2

1

6

-5

0


So here’s what we are looking at. In the six-team hexagonal, the top three teams after 10 games automatically advance to the World Cup, while the fourth-place team plays a two-match playoff. On average, just to get the fourth spot, a team needs about 13 points. That means from the remaining eight games, the U.S. has to probably win at least four games, half, to get there.

But in the last World Cup cycle, we saw Mexico finish fourth with just two wins. El Tri also got five points from draws, which is almost the same as winning two matches. In the end Mexico had just 11 points and got to the World Cup via the playoff. 

Can the U.S. do it? And how could it go down? Well, here you go.

Predicted outcome

Here’s the remaining schedule. Let’s predict the most realistic result and see if the U.S. possibly gets in. 

vs. Honduras on Friday
Prediction: Win

at Panama on Tuesday
Prediction: Loss

vs. Trinidad and Tobago on June 8
Prediction: Win

at Mexico on June 11
Prediction: Loss

vs. Costa Rica on Sept. 1
Prediction: Win

at Honduras on Sept. 5
Prediction: Loss

vs. Panama on Oct. 6
Prediction: Win

at Trinidad and Tobago on Oct. 10.
Prediction: Draw

From my early predictions, I’ve got the US getting 13 points. That, in the end, should be enough based on history to get the team into the fourth-place spot or possibly a spot higher. 

Tough road

Let’s envision the worst realistic outcome-- the U.S. only getting a draw and losing one out of the next two games. 

That would leave the team with just one point after four games and is entirely possible, but not likely. 

If that were to happen, the June 8 home match against T&T would become a must-win. And assuming this team loses at Mexico days later, that would see the U.S. with just four points with four games to go ahead of its “easiest” stretch of qualifying. 

That would likely mean the U.S. would have to win three of its last four to have a good shot at qualifying. Certainly doable, but what this means is that if the U.S. slips up in the coming days, it is in big, big trouble. 

Easiest road

The dream scenario for every USMNT fan is six points from the next two. I was confident in it happening until Fabian Johnson and Bobby Wood were dropped with injuries. But if somehow the U.S. gets two wins in the coming days, it would have six points with six games to go.

Meaning just two wins, with a draw or two, or winning three of the six games left should be enough.

Home is where you make it

The U.S. still has five home matches and with the hardest one out of the way against Mexico. If the U.S. wins those home games, all of which will see the team as the favorite, it will be in Russia next year.

Will it happen?

That remains to be seen. If the U.S. can get four points from the next two games, it will be in a great spot. Three points, depending on the other games, and you feel OK. 

But anything short of four points just adds to the pressure and worry that this team could miss out on the world’s greatest sporting event.

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