While the early successes of the Orioles and Mets are perhaps the biggest surprises of the season to date, don't forget those plucky upstarts in Cleveland.
Coming into 2012, the Tigers were, by acclamation, the heavy favorites in the AL Central. It's merely May, of course, and Detroit may well barge to the flag by a comfortable margin. That is, there's plenty of time for expectations to be met in a big way.
Still, it's worth noting that, at this writing, the Indians, buoyed by a ruthlessly patient approach at the plate, lead the division by two games, and according to CoolStandings.com, they have a solid 39.3% chance of making the postseason fray. Favorites? Of course not. Something better than a puncher's chance? Absolutely.
Look beyond the wins and losses, and you'll find that the Tribe's modest run differential of +2 should lead to a record of 15-14 instead of the team's actual mark of 17-12. If you look at the WAR hitting and pitching totals available at FanGraphs (here's a quick-and-dirty explanation of WAR) and add them to a replacement-level baseline, then their record should be about 14-15. So, to the extent that those underlying indicators are meaningful this early in the season, the Indians have been a bit lucky thus far.
So back to earth they come? Not quite. It must be noted that the Indians have achieved this early success despite poor early performances from Justin Masterson, Ubaldo Jimenez and Shin-Soo Choo, who were all expected to fare much better this season. Here's a quick look at what they've done to date and what the ZiPS forecasting system expects from them over the remainder of the season:
| Player | Current stats | ZiPS for rest of season |
| Shin-Soo Choo | .221/.343/.314 | .263/.359/.411 |
| Ubaldo Jimenez | 4.04 ERA | 3.94 |
| Justin Masterson | 4.89 ERA | 4.05 ERA |
As you can see, ZiPS expects at least a glancing improvement on each count. Such modest gains won't add up to much in the wins column over the final months of the season, but they could offset possible regression in other areas. There's also hope that Jimenez's recent mechanical adjustments might lead to better results (they certainly did in his last start). There's further hope that Grady Sizemore might be back early next month.
Moreover, look up and down the roster, and the only core hitter who's playing notably over his head is third baseman Jack Hannahan. Should he fade (and he probably will), then top prospect Lonnie Chisenhall, who's punishing the ball at Triple-A Columbus, can take over. In the rotation, Jeanmar Gomez almost certainly won't maintain that sub-3.00 ERA, but, again, gains ahead of him in the rotation can be anticipated. (Elsewhere, making Vinnie Pestano the closer would be a smart move.)
Obviously, the Tigers must be considered the favorites in the division, but the Indians have the makings of a contending team. That's especially the case given the presence of a second wild card berth, the expected levels of attrition in the AL East and the weakness of the AL West behind Texas.
Yes, the Indians are to be taken seriously.
