Although he turned 26 in October, Royals first baseman Eric Hosmer has experienced an awful lot in his career already. He was a high draft pick (third overall in 2008), a top prospect, part of a rebuilding team, part of a surprise pennant winner and most recently a World Series champ. Not bad for a kid with five years in the show.
Hosmer, like many of Kansas City's core players, is due to become a free agent following the 2017 season, when he will be only 28. He is a Scott Boras client, and Boras likes to take his top clients out onto the open market whenever possible. Given his age, Gold Glove defense, and burgeoning offense, Hosmer could be in line for a $200 million deal as a free agent.
There are still two years to go until Hosmer becomes a free agent, however. On Monday, Hosmer told MLB.com's Jeffrey Flanagan he is open to signing a long-term contract to remain with the Royals. From Flanagan:
"It's not like if [general manager] Dayton [Moore] came knocking on my door to talk about [a long-term contract] I would say no. Of course, not," Hosmer told MLB.com. "But also, having just won a championship, it's not like you go making any demands to Dayton, either."
Hosmer also is quick to dismiss the notion that he yearns to take his good looks and talent to a big market such as New York, Chicago or Los Angeles.
"That's just outside perspective," he said. "I don't play this game to be in commercials for hair products. I'm playing to try to win championships. Sure you want to give yourself the best opportunity in terms of financially, but at the same time, you want to give yourself the best chance to get to the playoffs.
Moore said the Royals "fully expect to sign as many of our players that we currently have on our team to long-term contracts," but acknowledged it simply may not be possible. They could be priced out on certain players, or the players may want to play elsewhere.
As for Hosmer, he is entering the second year of a two-year contract worth $13.9 million, which will pay him $8.25 million in 2016. He will be arbitration-eligible in 2017 before hitting free agency following the season. Hosmer is a Super Two player by virtue of his service time, meaning he was eligible for arbitration four times instead of the usual three.
Hosmer is in a very unique situation right now given his age, service time and production. Surprisingly few players have signed long-term extensions when they were only two seasons from free agency in recent years. With an assist from MLB Trade Rumors' Extension Tracker, here's a list of players to sign long-term deals two years prior to free agency:
| Players Who Signed Long-Term Deals Two Years Before Free Agency | |||||
| Hosmer | G. Stanton | J. Votto | M. Cabrera | R. Howard | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Platform Year WAR | 3.6 | 6.5 | 6.3 | 3.2 | 3.8 |
| Career WAR | 9.0 | 21.3 | 21.4 | 18.2 | 17.0 |
| Years | ? | 13 | 10 | 8 | 5 |
| Dollars | ? | $325M | $225M | $152.3M | $125M |
Those four are most comparable to Hosmer among players who signed extensions two years prior to free agency, and as you can see, all four had racked up substantially more WAR through a similar point of their career. WAR is not perfect, of course, but it gets us in the ballpark.
Both Howard and Votto had won MVP awards before signing their extensions. Cabrera had four All-Star Game selections and multiple top-five finishes in the MVP voting. Stanton had three 30-plus homer seasons, one homer title and a second place finish in the MVP voting. Hosmer has ... none of that. He has three Gold Gloves, no All-Star Game selections and a 24th place finish in the MVP voting. That's it.
I assure you none of that concerns Boras. He'll tout Hosmer as younger than Votto and Howard, more durable than Stanton and better defensively than Cabrera. Given his history, I would not be surprised if Boras brought up Stanton's contract during extension talks with the Royals. Unrealistic? Yeah, probably. But that's Boras.
Point is, Boras is going to want Hosmer to be paid like a free agent to forego free agency. Could Hosmer direct him to take a discount to stay in Kansas City? Of course. Boras works for Hosmer, not the other way around. I think that would be a surprise. Hosmer is close to free agency, and once players get this close, they usually don't give discounts. Look at the Stanton and Votto deals. That's free agent money.
Mark Teixeira signed an eight-year contract worth $180 million with the Yankees prior to the 2009 season, when he was 28, the same age Hosmer will be when he hits free agency. Teixeira was a standout defensive first baseman like Hosmer, though he had a longer and more impressive track record as an impact power hitter. Hosmer hasn't fully blossomed at the plate yet.
Boras negotiated the Teixeira contract, and it strikes me as the starting point for Hosmer talks when you factor in inflation. Boras can ask for Stanton money, or even Votto money, but the production doesn't warrant that kind of cash. Teams are paying for future performance, not past performance, but they sure will use past performance as negotiating leverage.
For now, the Royals control Hosmer for another two seasons, which is true of most of their core. They have a World Series caliber roster right now regardless of what the projections say. Hosmer is a key part of the club and they need him to produce if they want to have a chance to repeat in 2016. As far as keeping him long-term, well, hammering out a deal with Boras will not be easy.
