Heading into the ninth inning of Monday’s matchup against the Orioles, Craig Kimbrel had faced 302 batters with runners in scoring position. Over all of those plate appearances, he’d allowed exactly zero home runs with RISP. Already up in the count 0-1, Kimbrel needed just two more strikes to get out of the inning, at which point he would hand a 6-6 tie to the potent Red Sox offense for the bottom of the ninth.
That brought Chris Davis to the plate. When Kimbrel tried to sneak a 97-mph fastball by Davis, the big guy accomplished something nearly as rare: a no-doubt-about-it home run to dead center at Fenway Park, something few hitters on Earth can pull off.
Smashing a 449-foot, game-winning homer off one of the best relievers in the game and breaking a 302-batter streak might seem like a nearly impossible feat. But these are the 2016 Orioles, a team that so far in this very young season, can do no wrong.
Baltimore headed into Tuesday night’s game against Boston as the only remaining undefeated team in baseball, and after earning a 9-5 win, it improved to 7-0. The Orioles avoided losing thanks in large part to the two-pronged approach that’s been the trademark of the Buck Showalter Era: hold opponents close in the late innings, and pummel them with homers.
The Orioles are up to 13 homers after hitting three more in Tuesday's win, which is tied for third in the majors. That after placing third in 2015, first in 2014, first in 2013, second in 2012, and fourth in 2011. Meanwhile, Showalter has built a reputation as an expert bullpen handler and strong late-game manager, someone who can defy the odds of random chance and pull off historically great results in close games. This year’s pen boasts a 1.53 ERA with 31 strikeouts in 29 2/3 innings.
Then again, the baseball world knew all about the Orioles’ tendency to smash long balls and lock down late leads coming into the season, and still (mostly) predicted lackluster results for the 2016 club. You can trace Baltimore’s ability to crush expectations so far to the team faring better than expected in what were widely believed to be areas of weakness.
For starters, you’ve got the starters. The Orioles rotation came into Tuesday night’s game with the fourth-lowest ERA in the majors and still own a respectable 3.49 mark. Ubaldo Jimenez and Chris Tillman have led the way, starting the season with 14 innings pitched, 19 strikeouts, two walks, and a 1.29 ERA. That’s miles better than past results, with Tillman failing to strike out even two batters for every one walk last year, producing an ugly 4.99 ERA in the process.
The O’s have also done a nifty job of getting on base so far this young season. Perennially one of the worst teams in the league when it comes to on-base percentage, their .349 mark places them seventh in the majors. That’ll happen when you’ve got two of your starting nine htiting better than .400 clip and another with a .370 batting average. The biggest surprise on the roster has been lightly regarded rookie Joey Rickard.
A Rule 5 pick in December from the Rays, Rickard won a starting job when the Orioles’ attempt to sign Dexter Fowler fell flat, and when Korean outfielder Hyun-Soo Kim failed to win Showalter’s approval this spring. Rickard has hit safely in each of Baltimore's first seven games, setting the all-time Orioles rookie record. Of course, Rickard is just the latest in a long line of under-the-radar acquisitions for Duquette who have worked out, which in turn helps mitigate the need to spend huge money on overpriced veteran free agents.
Combine the two biggest usual weaknesses looking like strengths early on with expected results such as strong defense and Manny Machado raking, and you have a recipe for success. So here’s the zillion-dollar question: Can they keep it up?
There are reasons to be skeptical. Though the AL doesn’t have any truly awful teams, the O’s did face two beatable opponents to start the season. The Twins were still winless heading into Tuesday’s action, while the Rays boast the kind of erratic lineup that can be tamed by even a mediocre rotation. The rotation looks undermanned yet again, with promising right-hander Kevin Gausman on the disabled list, and the bigger issue of Baltimore failing to develop a reliably good homegrown starting pitcher since ... geez, Mike Mussina? Meanwhile the Orioles are riding a huge streak of luck with batted balls on the hitting side, and producing supernatural results with men on base on the pitching side.
Finally, you’ve got the Occam’s razor explanation. When Mark Trumbo is surging to .481/.517/.741 after two extra-base hits on Tuesday, including a home run, and we’re only seven games into the season, we have to invoke the Small Sample Size Song.
Still, stranger things have happened. Few expected the Orioles to win the AL East in 2014, and even fewer expected them to break a decade-and-a-half playoff drought in 2012. In fact, the O’s own the best record in the American League since the end of the 2011 season, when Dan Duquette took over as GM, joining forces with Showalter. Meanwhile, the 2015 Royals offer a compelling case study in how teams with obvious weaknesses, in particular shaky starting pitching, can lean on their strengths and do big things.
Billionaire owner Peter Angelos hasn’t spent big money in years, a local TV dispute has thrust the franchise’s near-term financial future into doubt, and yet here we are -- grappling with the question of whether we might have underestimated the O’s. Again.
