Despite a good fan base that provides a quality foundation of attendance, it's fair to say at this point that the Rockies are in the running for the most poorly run franchise in baseball. Since back-to-back playoff berths in 2017-18 that yielded a 1-4 record, the Rockies haven't come even close to a playoff berth in a full season. They missed the playoffs in 2020 at 26-34 and otherwise have finished at least 30 games out in the NL West four times. Last season, they shattered the franchise record with 103 losses (the previous worst was 98 losses in 2012).
There doesn't appear to be a ton of hope on the horizon either. Both Fangraphs and PECOTA (Baseball Prospectus) projection systems have the Rockies finishing with baseball's worst record in 2024. MLB.com has the Rockies 21st of 30 teams in its farm system rankings, too.
On the bright side, Denver is great and Coors Field is an excellent place to watch a game. So I guess there's that.
Win total projection, odds
- 2023 record: 59-103 (last place in NL West)
- 2024 SportsLine win total over/under: 59.5
- World Series odds (via SportsLine): +50000
Projected lineup
- Charlie Blackmon, DH
- Kris Bryant, 1B
- Nolan Jones, LF
- Brendan Rodgers, 2B
- Ryan McMahon, 3B
- Elias Díaz, C
- Sean Bouchard, RF
- Ezequiel Tovar, SS
- Brenton Doyle, CF
Backup catcher Jacob Stallings, corner infielder Elehuris Montero, first baseman/outfielder Hunter Goodman and outfielder Sam Hilliard will also see plenty of playing time.
Projected rotation
- LHP Kyle Freeland
- RHP Cal Quantrill
- LHP Austin Gomber
- RHP Ryan Feltner
- RHP Dakota Hudson
Keep in mind that both Germán Márquez and Antonio Senzatela are recovering from Tommy John surgery. Márquez has a chance to return late this season.
Projected bullpen
- Closer: RHP Justin Lawrence
- Setup: RHP Tyler Kinley, RHP Jake Bird
- Middle: RHP Nick Mears, LHP Jalen Beeks, RHP Anthony Molina, LHP Evan Justice
- Long: LHP Ty Blach
Daniel Bard had knee surgery and is expected to open the season on the injured list, though it doesn't sound like he'll be down for long.
What's left for Blackmon, Bryant?
Blackmon is one of the more decorated Rockies in history. For real. He's seventh in career WAR with the ballclub. He's also first in triples, second in hits, second in runs, second in total bases, second in doubles, second in stolen bases, third in walks, fifth in RBI, sixth in home runs and 10th in average. He'll turn 38 on July 1, though, and was held to 96 games last season. He hit .279/.363/.440 (107 OPS+), so there might just be another big season in there if he can stay on the field.
Speaking of staying on the field, former MVP Kris Bryant has dealt with plenty of injury woes since the 2017 season (at the time, it looked like he was on a Hall of Fame track). In his first two years with the Rockies, he's only managed to play 122 games. Further, last season he was brutal when he did play, slashing .233/.313/.367, an embarrassing 76 OPS+ for a guy on a seven-year, $182 million deal. And now he's being moved to first base, so that defensive versatility selling point is buried in the past.
Bryant is 32 and still appears to be in great shape. He was a quality player in 2021 and a very good player in 2019.
If the Rockies are going to surprise and hang around in contention, so many things have to go unexpectedly right. We can start with the two highly compensated veteran position players.
A Freeland bounce back?
Another place to look for a bump up from the meager projections would be with Freeland. Remember, his second year in the majors he was good enough to finish fourth in NL Cy Young voting behind Jacob deGrom, Max Scherzer and Aaron Nola. This from a Rockies pitcher! How about that. Things have gone a bit off the rails, since, as he is 27-47 with a 4.96 ERA in his last five years combined.
Freeland has increased velocity this spring and is experimenting with a new changeup grip.
That 2018 season was one of the best we've ever seen from a Rockies pitcher. Does Freeland have it in him to get back close to being that guy?
The youth movement
Any team in what looks like a bad position heading into a season needs to focus on developing the youngsters who can be part of the next contender, so where are we with this squad?
- Nolan Jones saw regular playing time last year at the big-league level for the first time. He was 25. He hit .297/.389/.542 (138 OPS+) with 22 doubles, four triples, 20 homers, 62 RBI, 60 runs, 20 steals and 4.3 WAR in 106 games. That's quite a partial season of production, to the point that we could call him a star heading into this season. He's under team control through 2028.
- Ezequiel Tovar played in 153 games last season at age 21. He showed exceptional defensive ability while hitting .253 with 37 doubles, four triples, 15 homers and 11 steals. He needs to work on that on-base percentage and cut down on strikeouts, but he's just so young. There's a lot to love in here. He's also controlled through 2028.
- Brenton Doyle debuted last year at age 25 and appeared in 126 games. He did not hit well, slashing .203/.250/.343, good for an abysmal 52 OPS+. He did play great defense in center and especially in the cavernous outfield at Coors Field, so that's a huge plus. Perhaps the bat can develop a bit more at the big-league level with more experience. He's hit well, at times, in spurts, in the minors.
- Elehuris Montero is 25 and Hunter Goodman is 24. Perhaps one of them, or both, show enough upside this season for some optimism moving forward.
- Adael Amador is a 20-year-old middle infielder who has a chance to get all the way to the majors this season. He reached Double-A last season after slashing .302/.392/.514 in High-A.
- Chase Dollander is the first pitcher we've mentioned in this subhead, so that's always exciting. He was selected ninth overall in the draft last July. He's a sturdy right-hander who was in the conversation for top overall pick last year before a down year with the University of Tennessee dropped him into the Rockies' lap. If 2023 was an outlier for him, the Rockies could well have gotten a steal. He was one of college baseball's best pitchers in 2022.
- Jordan Beck, Dollander's Tennessee teammate (hey, Todd Helton went to Tennessee, too, so maybe it's a Rockies good luck charm!) is a 22-year-old corner outfielder with prodigious power. He was the 38th overall pick in the 2022 draft. Between High-A and Double-A last season, he hit .271/.364/.503 with 34 doubles, 25 homers and 20 steals in 126 games.
For more on Amador, Dollander and Beck, CBS Sports prospect guru R.J. Anderson has you covered here.
What would make for a successful season?
The chances of contention in 2024 are infinitesimal, which means gains need to be made with individual players who can help future Rockies teams. To piggyback on the sentiment from above, a successful season for the Rockies' organization would be growth from the young MLB players and those still on the farm. It would also be nice to see fully healthy and productive seasons from Bryant and Freeland while Márquez and Senzatela move into position to be helpful for the 2025 season.
Basically, the Rockies need to see enough growth from a wide array of areas that would give them the hope of contenting in 2025. It's just not happening in 2024.
