Nationals starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg was set to be one of the biggest names in free agency this coming offseason. Instead, he has agreed to a significant, long-term extension to remain in D.C., the team has announced. Chelsea Janes of the Washington Post first reported the deal. Jon Heyman of MLB Network reports the deal is worth $175 million over seven years.
"Ensuring that Stephen will remain a part of our organization for years to come is a proud moment for our entire family," said owner Ted Lerner in a statement. "We are very fond of Stephen and his entire family, and we've thought very highly of them since he became such an integral part of our organization almost seven years ago. We're honored that he feels the same way about the Washington Nationals, and very happy to keep him pitching in the nation's capital."
"I am delighted to ensure that Stephen is going to remain an important part of the Washington Nationals," added GM Mike Rizzo. "From the moment he was drafted, Stephen has been far more than just a pitcher for our organization, and his talent is transcendent; the numbers speak for themselves. Needless to say I am thrilled we'll continue to have him as a part of our family on the field and in the community, and looking forward to seeing him on the mound for us every five days for the foreseeable future."
Here are five things to know:
1. This is a surprise
The signing is surprising on a few levels. First, Strasburg is a Scott Boras client and the majority of big-name Boras clients hit free agency in order to maximize the contract. We'd have to go back to Jered Weaver before the 2012 season to find a marquee Boras client sign an extension.
Secondly, as an extension of the first point, Strasburg was set to be part of a very weak class of free-agent pitchers. While last season was loaded, the best names left after Strasburg in free agency look to be Scott Kazmir (if he opts out of his deal), James Shields (if he opts out of his deal), Andrew Cashner, Clay Buchholz, Gio Gonzalez (if his club option isn't picked up) and Jaime Garcia (if his club option isn't picked up).
Needless to say, Strasburg's talent level and age would have made him the top pitcher on the market in a blowout.
2. It's also a risk
Strasburg had Tommy John surgery back in 2010 and went through the now notorious "shutdown" in 2012. He had a quick DL stint in 2013 and made only 23 starts last season thanks to some injury issues. Overall, it's probably a stretch to call him injury prone, but there's some risk in there.
With only one season of more than 200 innings under his belt, it's fair to argue that Strasburg doesn't have the track record of the other $175M+ pitchers (Felix Hernandez, Justin Verlander, CC Sabathia, Max Scherzer, Clayton Kershaw, David Price, Zack Greinke).
3. In fact, this is a record
Take note of those of pitchers who signed deals worth at least $175 million. None of them ever had Tommy John surgery before their respective deals.
It's interesting to note here that the previous biggest contract ever for a pitcher who underwent Tommy John surgery was former Nationals teammate Jordan Zimmermann, who signed a five-year, $110 million deal this past offseason with the Tigers. That was the record deal for a pitcher who had previously had the surgery.
Shin-Soo Choo got a seven-year, $130 million deal a few years back with Texas, which was the overall record.
Strasburg blew by both and now has the record. Again, it's got to be considered a risk. Of course ...
4. Strasburg can dominate
Heading into his Monday start against Detroit, Strasburg was 59-37 with a 3.06 ERA (127 ERA+) and 1.09 WHIP in his career. He'd struck out 948 hitters in 818 2/3 innings, good for an impressive 10.4 K/9. He led the NL with 242 strikeouts in 2014 and was the ace of a playoff team in 2012 (before the shutdown, of course).
Since returning from injury last August, Strasburg has been one of the most dominant pitchers in baseball. Including his last 10 starts last season and first six this year, he's 11-2 with a 2.08 ERA, 0.85 WHIP and 139 strikeouts against only 17 walks in 108 1/3 innings.
That's the type of potential the Nationals saw when taking him first overall in the 2009 draft out of San Diego State. Now he's being paid like a true ace.
5. Harper could be next
Bryce Harper is arbitration-eligible in 2017 and 2018 before hitting free agency. Surely the Nationals will do everything they can to lock Harper up before the end of the 2018 World Series. The Strasburg contract isn't the template, though. Look at Giancarlo Stanton's 13-year, $325 million deal and start going upward quickly. Yes, that's where this thing is headed.
Does the news of one Boras client signing and extension bode well for the Nats' chances of retaining another Boras client in Harper? It certainly doesn't hurt.
The Nationals can probably handle it, too. After the 2018 season, the only contracts (excluding pre-arb and arbitration players) on the books are Max Scherzer's weirdly gargantuan deferral deal ($35 million per year from 2019-2021) and Ryan Zimmerman's $18 million in 2019. Now add in Strasburg's $25 million a year (which could be back-loaded) and the Nationals are still well south of what they'll be able to absorb. They currently have a payroll of $145 million and change, per Cot's Contracts.
