UFC heads back to pay-per-view on Saturday night, and it's armed with arguably its deepest fight card in years. UFC 259 is set to commence from the UFC Apex facility in Las Vegas with three title fights atop the marquee, including Israel Adesanya's attempt to become a two-division champion when he challenges light heavyweight king Jan Blachowicz.
The co-main event will mark the return of two-division champion and consensus greatest woman in mixed martial arts history when Amanda Nunes looks to defend her featherweight title against Megan Anderson. It will be just Nunes' second fight in 15 months because of minor injuries, COVID-19 protocols and the birth of her first child with fellow fighter Nina Ansaroff. She remains as dominant as ever with seven stoppage victories amid her current 10-fight winning streak over a who's who of challengers. Across the cage will be the first opponent to own a height advantage over Nunes in Anderson, who stands 6-feet tall and has three stoppage wins in UFC.
When there's action this good, fans everywhere are looking to get in on it with a wager or two to keep their attention focused on the PPV. That's why we're here to help. We've sifted through all 15 fights and the props offered to give you our three best bets for the card with a little explanation as to why it's a value worth exploring. Let's take a closer look at those now with the latest odds from William Hill Sportsbook.
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Jan Blachowicz vs. Israel Adesanya
| Method of result | Odds |
|---|---|
Blachowicz via KO/TKO/DQ | +275 |
| Blachowicz via submission | +800 |
Blachowicz via decision | +700 |
Adesanya via KO/TKO/DQ | +130 |
Adesanya via submission | +2000 |
Adesanya via decision | +250 |
Draw | +5000 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +163 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -225 |
Pick: Israel Adesanya via decision (+250) -- There's a lot to unpack in this fight, but let's start with the simple fact that both men have proven very difficult to knock out in their careers. Across all his fights in boxing, kickboxing and MMA, Adesanya has only suffered a single knockout, that coming in a fight against Alex Pereira in Glory kickboxing in 2017. Pereira is a bigger man, just like Blachowicz will be, but is on a completely different planet as a pure striker. Blachowicz made the mistake of getting in a leg kick war with Rameau Thierry Sokoudjou in 2011, suffering a TKO after his leg took horrific damage. More recently, Blachowicz was knocked out by Thiago Santos in 2019. Between looking to avoid the strikes of their powerful opponent and what could be an extended early feeling out period, there's a strong chance this fight doesn't end in the explosive knockout that is expected by many. If the fight turns into a technical striking match, there's simply no way Blachowicz can go strike for strike with the better technician. These factors are adding up to make Adesanya via decision an intriguing line.
Aalon Cruz vs. Uros Medic
| Method of result | Odds |
|---|---|
Cruz via KO/TKO/DQ | +400 |
Cruz via submission | +800 |
Cruz via decision | +300 |
Medic via KO/TKO/DQ | +110 |
Medic via submission | +1000 |
Medic via decision | +500 |
| Draw | +5000 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +163 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -225 |
Pick: Uros Medic wins in Round 1 (+200) -- Medic is 6-0 in his career, with four knockouts and two submissions. Those finishes have all come in the first round, with the exception of a single fight that ended just 51 seconds into the second round. There's no doubt that Medic is someone who goes fast and hard to get the finish. That could be an issue against some fighters, but Cruz has some red flags that suggest Medic's impressive run could continue. Cruz has suffered three losses in his career, one by knockout, the other two by submission. Adding extra weight to a Medic in Round 1 pick, two of those three losses for Cruz came in the first round, including his most recent fight, which saw him stopped by suggesting a clear ability to be overwhelmed by an aggressive opponent early. Medic via an early stoppage is the play to make.
Amanda Nunes vs. Megan Anderson
| Method of result | Odds |
|---|---|
Nunes via KO/TKO/DQ | +100 |
Nunes via submission | +150 |
Nunes via decision | +450 |
Anderson via KO/TKO/DQ | +1000 |
Anderson via submission | +1600 |
Anderson via decision | +1800 |
Fight goes the distance: YES | +400 |
Fight goes the distance: NO | -600 |
Pick: Amanda Nunes via decision (+450) -- For William Hill bettors, there's currently a boost to the Nunes via decision line that pushes it to +525 and makes it much more appealing to squeeze extra value. Nunes is absolutely a finisher, having 13 knockouts and three submissions in her career. She is, however, on a stretch of two decisions in a row and facing a big featherweight in Anderson, who stands 6-feet tall. Spencer likely won't be able to consistently use that reach to score an upset, or even keep Nunes from closing distance continually, but it does allow Anderson to present issues that few other fighters can. A Nunes finish is not out of the question, and is even likely, as reflected in the odds. But Nunes via decision seems like a result that is more likely than the 18% implied odds of +450 -- or the 16% implied by the boosted line at William Hill. Finding those edges is where you make money over the long haul.
Who will win Blachowicz vs. Adesanya, and which underdog is a must-back? Visit SportsLine now to get detailed picks on every fight at UFC 259, all from the incomparable expert who's up more than $21,000 on MMA in the past 25 months, and find out.
