Travis Kelce, Darren Waller, and George Kittle have been the three most productive tight ends in football over the past three seasons. They all still rank inside my top five in the updated rankings below, but it's not hard to see how any of the three could lose a massive amount of value over the next six months.
With Kelce it's pretty clear. He'll turn 33 in October. At any position other than quarterback, that's enough risk in itself. And he may have shown some cracks in the armor last year. His yards per target was a career low, his yards per reception was his lowest since 2015 and his yards per game was his lowest since 2017. Kelce is still everyone's TE1 in redraft this year, but he's also an enormous risk in Dynasty. A major injury or a bad year and you may not be able to get much for him at all in a trade.
Long-term, Waller probably has the second-most risk of the group. He'll turn 30 in September and his team just added Davante Adams to the mix. If Adams commands 10 targets per game as he did in Green Bay, then either Waller or Hunter Renfrow is going to bust in a big way this season, maybe both. If Waller disappoints for a second-consecutive season, there may not be a huge market for him in 2023.
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Finally, Kittle has the most downside this year, but I think he may have the steadiest floor. The risk this year is all about how accurate Trey Lance can be, how much Kyle Shanahan lets him throw, and how many times Lance targets Kittle. But he's four years younger than Kelce and a year younger than Waller, so I'd imagine Dynasty managers will be interested even if he doesn't finish top three this season.
It's unlikely all three of these tight ends fall on their faces in Dynasty, but the risk is great enough that I wouldn't want to carry any of them all year on a rebuilding team. The more interesting question is who joins the top five if one of them falls, and that will likely come down to who has the best year this year between T.J. Hockenson, Dalton Schultz, and Dallas Goedert. Here are my updated Dynasty tight end rankings: