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All of the talk on Friday will be about the surplus of stud pitchers, and for good reason. Jason Hammel was our top pitcher Thursday, and I'm not sure he'd rank in the top 10 today. I'll cover my top pitchers below, but there is someone I love at virtually every price range. Joe Ross didn't make my top three, but he's a great play, especially considering how many stud hitters there are as well.
All four of the top four outfielders have compelling arguments, so let's break it down.
Bryce Harper ($5,300, $5,100) Citizens Bank Park is one of the top home run parks in all of baseball, so that's a good start. While Jeremy Hellickson is off to a good start, he gave up nearly 1.5 home runs per nine innings last year and hasn't posted an ERA below 4.5 since 2012. Harper had an 1.160 OPS vs. RHP in 2015.
Mike Trout ($4,900, $5,400) Trout is off to the slowest start of these three, which might make him the best tournament play. In 2015, Trout slashed .310/.432/.593 against left handed pitchers. Tommy Milone is not a terrible pitcher, but he has never allowed fewer than 1.1 HR/9. He gave up an extra base hit to one in 10 right-handed batters he faced last season.
Giancarlo Stanton ($4,800, $5,300) Stanton may be facing the worst pitcher of the lot with a matchup at home against Williams Perez. Perez struggles with his control and has a 4.90 ERA in 121.1 career innings. More importantly, he struck out a paltry 5.6 batters per 9 innings last year, which is really Stanton's only weakness. Stanton homers about once every 10 plate appearances that don't end in strikeouts.
Jose Bautista ($4,600, $4,900) This one is for the BvP crowd. Bautista has crushed Rick Porcello to the tune of .464/.545/.786 in 33 plate appearances. Bautista is also very fond of Fenway Park. He has 21 home runs there in 54 career games. That's a 63 HR pace over 162 games.
Starting Pitchers
Zack Greinke ($10,400, $10,000)
Let's be clear, Kershaw is on the slate, so he's probably going to be the top scoring pitcher. But Grienke saves you at least $2,000 and faces a Padres offense that has scored five runs in seven games outside of Coors Field. Greinke is off to a terrible start to the season, but it's largely batted ball luck related. I wouldn't expect a ton of strikeouts but seven or more innings and a win seem likely.
Clayton Kershaw ($12,800, $13,700)
Despite what you may have heard about Noah Syndergaard, Kershaw is still the best pitcher in baseball. He has a long history of success against the Giants team and a ridiculous 0.47 WHIP through two starts. The only issue is the opposing pitcher. Madison Bumgarner should hold the Dodgers offense in check, and that significantly lowers the win probability for Kershaw. The Dodgers are only the fifth biggest favorite on the board tonight.
Carlos Martinez ($9,000, $9,000)
Carlos Martinez is by far my favorite pitcher under $10,ooo, and I expect his ownership to be low. Joe Ross is $1,800 cheaper, so I'd expect people will mostly pay up for an ace or go cheap with Ross. The Reds have actually been decent offensively, but Martinez has big strikeout potential and one of the best win probabilities of the day.
Stack Attack
Astros vs. Tigers
You have to imagine the Astros are a little frustrated with their start to the season, and the Tigers are bringing the cure to all that ails them in Mike Pelfrey. Pelfrey was bombed in his first start of 2016 and has a 5.04 ERA since coming over to the American League. Jose Altuve has been red hot, so he'll be a popular play, but George Springer may be the better tournament option.
Rangers vs. Orioles
Only the Astros and Red Sox are projected to score more runs by Vegas tonight than Texas. They face Vance Worley, who had some success two years ago in Pittsburgh but has a career 1.4 WHIP and strikes out less than seven batters per 9. Nomar Mazara is still a bargain and will be a popular play in cash games.
Blue Jays @ Red Sox
The Red Sox are actually projected to win this game and score more runs, but I get very nervous against a knuckleballer. If you're into BvP, David Ortiz, Hanley Ramirez and Xander Bogaerts have all had a lot of success vs. Dickey. Of course, none of them to the extent that Jose Bautista has destroyed Rick Porcello. What it comes down to is the Jays lineup is just so much better, and Porcello feels predictable. This is a great stack for your Ross or Martinez lineups.
Lineups
I'm going to offer my early take on a cash game lineup, but of course you should always check out our Sportsline projections for lineup changes right up to lock. Also, check out our podcast on iTunes for extended thoughts on each slate from Chris Towers, Mike McClure and myself.
FanDuel
P Zack Greinke $10,400
C Stephen Vogt $2,400
1B Prince Fielder $3,300
2B Jose Altuve $4,400
3B Adonis Garcia $2,300
SS Alcides Escobar $2,300
OF Nomar Mazara $2,700
OF Mitch Moreland $2,700
OF Jose Bautista $4,600
DraftKings
P Zack Greinke $10,000
P Carlos Martinez $9,000
C Brett Nicholas $2,000
1B Prince Fielder $4,900
2B Jose Altuve $4,900
3B Yunel Escobar $3,300
SS Xander Bogaerts $4,000
OF Jose Bautista $4,900
OF Nomar Mazara $3,300
OF Jeremy Hazelbaker $3,700
