The best way to figure out the future is to look at the present with one eye and on the past with the other. ... That's good. I have to write that down.
We're already seven weeks through the 2007 season and a few veteran players have stood out with solid Fantasy production, compared to what they've produced in past Aprils and Mays. I asked the fine people that provide us with stats, the Elias Sports Bureau, to send me the average first-seven weeks stats of major leaguers over the past three years. By looking at those numbers, compared to what we're seeing now from these players, we can begin to predict whether they are just being lucky or if they've made the right adjustments and are now above-average players.
Below are the top 20 hitters that showed the greatest Fantasy improvement for the first seven weeks of the season compared to how they've performed on average in the first seven weeks of the past three seasons.
| Opening day stats through May 20 (min. 10 games) |
| 2004-06 | 2007 | H2H | |||||||||
| Player | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | BA | HR | RBI | R | SB | Diff. |
|
1. Lofton 2. Rollins 3. Chipper Jones 4. T. Hunter 5. Polanco 6. Rowand 7. Byrnes 8. Renteria 9. Wigginton 10. Cuddyer 11. Holliday 12. Durham 13. Lugo 14. Hudson 15. A-Rod 16. Alex Gonzalez 17. A. Ramirez 18. B. Molina 19. Greene 20. Teixeira |
.296 .238 .305 .260 .269 .272 .298 .285 .219 .274 .302 .262 .262 .253 .287 .217 .252 .282 .251 .267 |
0 3 5 6 1 4 4 2 5 3 6 2 2 2 11 3 7 3 4 5 |
6 11 18 23 7 13 12 15 18 15 24 10 16 15 31 13 22 14 20 19 |
12 26 20 21 14 19 20 21 12 16 22 15 15 19 33 9 22 9 15 24 |
4 8 1 5 0 4 4 3 0 2 2 1 7 4 4 1 0 0 1 1 |
.246 .274 .307 .318 .331 .333 .297 .335 .250 .272 .348 .261 .250 .284 .311 .252 .290 .299 .237 .299 |
4 9 12 10 1 7 6 6 8 5 8 4 3 6 17 7 11 4 6 8 |
12 27 26 36 22 23 22 23 23 29 33 23 26 28 41 16 35 22 23 26 |
23 35 33 28 24 29 24 33 18 24 25 24 23 24 38 18 23 10 28 27 |
14 9 0 8 1 3 8 2 1 2 2 3 12 2 3 3 0 0 0 0 |
+64 +62 +60 +56 +53 +53 +49 +49 +46 +43 +43 +42 +41 +39 +37 +36 +34 +32 +32 +32 |
What do the numbers say?
Kenny Lofton is already on pace for 519 at-bats, which would be his highest number since 2003, when he split the season between Pittsburgh and the Chicago Cubs. Batting leadoff for the Rangers, a top-five offensive ballclub, has helped the 17-year veteran score twice as many runs as he has averaged in the past. And let's not disregard his four homers, setting him on pace for 14 -- the most since 2001 with Cleveland. Manager Ron Washington is no Buck Showalter and he's running Lofton plenty. The Rangers are seventh in the league with 34 steals, compared to the 53 the team stole all last year (28th in the majors). He's not getting on base like he once did and he has to bring up his OBP, but as long as he stays healthy, he's an excellent Rotisserie outfielder.
Jimmy Rollins, another speedster, lands second on this list. His power surge (three times his average HR production so far) puts him this high though. Last year, Rollins had a career high 25 homers and 83 RBI, and he's already on pace to beat those numbers (33 and 99). His batting average has dropped 10 points since 2005, but he is more than making up for it with his run production. The Phillies moved him down to third in the lineup, behind Shane Victorino rather than in front of him, and Chase Utley is hitting cleanup. Don't point to that change as the reason for his jump in run production. In 11 games hitting third, Rollins is batting only .214 with no homers and five RBI. Eventually, though, he should come around and knock in more runs. Actually, it has been the complete opposite of what you'd normally think would happen. He has four steals in those 11 games, just one fewer than the five he stole in 33 games hitting leadoff.
Alex Gonzalez is the former Marlins middle infielder that is currently having a career year in Cincinnati. After spending a year in Boston, Gonzalez signed on with the Reds and has already paid huge dividends hitting mostly in the seventh spot, although he has hit well enough to hit fifth in 13 games also. You can't point to his home park for his offensive surge, since he is hitting better away from The Great American Ballpark. Cincinnati was actually in the lower echelon in scoring last year, but they currently rank 12th in the majors. Don't expect the 10-year veteran to continue this pace. His 2004-06 batting average was .217, with three homers and 13 RBI, so any production this year would have been a boon compared to those numbers.
Bengie Molina, on the other hand, has great splits at home, hitting .349 with an .890 OPS at AT&T Park in San Francisco. Only Randy Winn has a higher batting average for the Giants than Molina's .304. Again, this is a case where a veteran's numbers will likely revert back to what he has done over several years. Granted, this is his first season in the NL, so pitchers aren't quite as familiar with him, but he has never hit .300 in a season, and he won't come near the 88 RBI that he's on pace for. Trade him now, while he's scoring Fantasy points like a top-10 player at his position.
Time to rise and shine
It's interesting to see Mark Teixeira on this list of most improved over the past three years. Especially when you consider he hasn't had that great of a start to the season. He's only on pace to hit 29 homers and knock in 99 RBI, which would be worse than all but his rookie year. And remember how bad last year started out for him? You'd think that would drag his numbers down for the average. He's really starting to pick up his stats this month though, batting .392 in May. Last year, he had only nine homers (one more than he has now) before the All-Star break. Throughout his career, Teixeira has been a slow starter, with April easily his worst month. Hopefully you made a move for him earlier this month.
J.D. Drew, a career .290 hitter with 160 career homers entering this season, has started off his Red Sox career with a limp. Not a literal limp, don't worry about that ... yet. But I mean a statistical limp. He has just two homers and 13 RBI, with a .244 batting average. Most troubling for him has to be his inability to get extra base hits. He has only five doubles, one triple and two homers -- for a total of seven extra base hits. That's the same amount as teammate Alex Cora. It's tough to consider him a bust just yet, but in the past he has been such a consistent hitter when healthy, which makes this slump such an eyebrow raiser. In his career, he has hit between .281-.284 in five of the six regular season months, with an inexplicable jump to .301 in July. He has just 10 hits in the month of May, but it has to get better for him. He should be denting the Green Monster with doubles anytime now. Get him before July.
Below are the top 20 pitchers that showed the greatest Fantasy improvement for the first seven weeks of the season compared to how they've performed on average in the first seven weeks of the past three seasons.
| Opening day stats through May 20 (min. 5 games) |
| 2004-06 | 2007 | H2H | |||||||||
| Pitcher | IP | W | K | ERA | WHIP | IP | W | K | ERA | WHIP | Diff |
|
1. Sabathia 2. Lackey 3. Smoltz 4. Hudson 5. Lilly 6. Meche 7. Ol. Perez 8. Oswalt 9. Lowe 10. Suppan 11. Marquis 12. Bedard 13. Moyer 14. Morris 15. Peavy 16. Willis 17. Ra. Ortiz 18. Hendrickson 19. Lohse 20. Wakefield |
40 52 46 61 42 44 40 64 52 47 57 45 53 51 58 52 32 41 41 53 |
2 3 2 4 3 3 2 4 2 3 4 3 2 3 4 4 1 2 2 3 |
27 36 38 36 36 30 36 46 28 26 29 34 32 29 58 35 17 17 22 33 |
2.50 4.28 3.15 3.58 5.57 5.10 5.79 3.60 3.97 4.23 4.08 3.62 4.73 4.12 2.69 3.64 6.38 4.49 6.71 3.72 |
1.100 1.320 1.140 1.260 1.550 1.510 1.640 1.250 1.370 1.400 1.310 1.350 1.450 1.190 1.150 1.300 1.840 1.320 1.740 1.280 |
61 59 66 70 60 66 49 70 65 61 58 61 57 61 60 63 50 44 53 52 |
6 6 6 5 4 3 5 6 4 5 5 3 4 5 5 6 3 2 1 4 |
63 54 55 43 54 50 48 47 42 32 29 75 34 29 71 48 20 32 37 30 |
3.65 2.43 2.85 2.42 2.69 2.44 2.90 2.83 3.84 3.25 2.76 4.28 4.37 2.93 1.64 4.86 5.36 3.22 4.75 2.41 |
1.220 1.250 1.220 1.000 0.930 1.240 1.090 1.160 1.420 1.280 1.010 1.260 1.270 1.340 0.990 1.520 1.350 1.120 1.490 1.150 |
+139 +133 +132 +130 +128 +124 +120 +119 +118 +113 +111 +107 +104 +104 +98 +97 +94 +93 +88 +87 |
What do the numbers say?
C.C. Sabathia has six wins at this point, compared to just the two that he has averaged over the past three seasons. Injuries had a large say in that, but you can't discount how well he has pitched this year. His Ks/9 is up almost four full points. Actually, only six pitchers with at least 40 innings under their belt have a better ratio. But Sabathia's greatest feat so far this season has been the fact that he has kept his walks to the bare minimum, much like last season. His K/BB ratio of 5.58 is surpassed only by Paul Byrd and Jeremy Bonderman. The big fella (at 290 lbs., he's just a McGriddle away from being a Fantasy Football writer) has slowed recently, but he could be the AL's first 20-game winner this year if he can stay healthy.
Actually, Erik Bedard leads all major leaguers with 11.07 strikeouts per nine innings. But the Orioles are currently the fourth-worst scoring offense in the AL, with just 188 runs scored in 44 games. They're providing Bedard with just 4.13 runs of support in each of his starts. To put that number into perspective, 79 other major league starters with at least 40 innings have better run support than that. Yet Bedard is doing his job and not reaping the rewards. He's winless in his past six starts. He struck out 12 in his last outing this weekend -- his third double-digit strikeout effort of the year. His ERA could certainly be better, but over his past four starts, it's just 1.93. The Orioles bullpen has to improve, so Bedard's numbers should follow suit as well. He's a better Rotisserie man than Head-to-Head starter right now.
Brad Penny finally lost a start this past weekend, but his ERA is still a smallish 2.54 through nine starts. His command hasn't been that good though. Actually, his strikeouts/walks are down one full point this year compared to his three-year average before that (1.75 to 2.82). The fact that he is 5-1, with that low of an ERA is likely more luck than skill, according to his numbers. And don't forget that he had that crazy 14-strikeout game at Florida, his former team, back on May 7. Take that game off his statboard and he doesn't have another game in which he has struck out more than four batters. As a matter of fact, he has struck out two or fewer batters in four of his starts this year. He's not getting a lot of run support and he's doing a nice job of stranding runners, but I'm suggesting you sell high.
Time to rise and shine
For the past couple of seasons, I've noted that Barry Zito is a slow starter. My spring advice is usually, "Let someone else draft him, then swoop in for a trade in early May." He has a career April ERA near 5.00, although he posted a 3.73 ERA this past April before coming apart in May. His last two starts have been abysmal (6 ER at COL, 7 ER at OAK), but you should be ecstatic since the price in trade will be much lower now.
If there is one thing you should know when drafting Johan Santana, it's that he's going to start off slow and finish like a runaway train. Through his eight seasons in the majors, he is only 18-16 with a 4.19 ERA in April. But for the rest of the season, he is 64-19 with a 2.76 ERA! If you can deal a solid hitter paired with a pitcher right now for Santana, do it. His command is actually down a bit right now than it has been at this time in the past, but he's still dominant. Now is the time to snatch him up.
Freddy Garcia has not had a warm welcome to the National League this season. While he might have started in the Astros organization, he has spent the past eight years in the AL. Now he's dealing with a home park that gives up the second-most runs in the majors (10.7). He has given up all five homers this year in Citizens Bank Park and his 5.14 home ERA is 0.64 points higher than what he does on the road. Opponents are hitting .267 against him on the road, but at home? They're rapping him at a .341 clip. Start him on the road for now until he can bring his numbers down in Philly.
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