The race for the Triple Crown begins on Saturday, May 4 with the 2024 Kentucky Derby, and last year's best shot at seeing a Triple Crown winner was lost before the first leg of the three marquee races. Forte was the Kentucky Derby favorite, but was scratched the morning of the Kentucky Derby due to a foot injury. Forte's owner, Mike Repole, has the favorite yet again entering the 2024 Run for the Roses, as Repole seeks his first Kentucky Derby victory. Repole owns Fierceness, the 5-2 favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds after winning the Florida Derby. Fierceness has won three of five career races, so can he be the horse to break Repole's run of poor luck at Churchill Downs?
Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1) have the next lowest odds among the 2024 Kentucky Derby horses. Forever Young (10-1) and Just a Touch (10-1) follow in the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup. Is there value in backing Fierceness as the favorite in your 2024 Kentucky Derby bets? Who are some of the longshots that may be underpriced in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field? The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness posted a 110 Beyer Speed Figure at Gulfstream Park during his Florida Derby victory, the fastest of any three-year-old in 2024. That speed is fueling heavy action on Fierceness ahead of the Kentucky Derby 2024.
However, Fierceness has struggled with showcasing his speed on a consistent basis. After claiming victory at Saratoga in his first start, Fierceness struggled mightily in his next race and finished seventh in the Champagne Stakes at Aqueduct. He has yet to win back-to-back races, which doesn't bode well for the favorite after crossing the finish line first at the Florida Derby at the end of March. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Resilience showed the endurance and capability of winning a longer race in taking the Wood Memorial, a 1 1/8-mile race. Resilience ran towards the front nearly the entire race, but showed his breakaway speed and overtook first for the final stretch. Resilience won by three lengths, with the victory earning enough points in the Road to the Kentucky Derby standings to secure a spot in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.
Resilience has familiarity at Churchill Downs and finished second and third in his two career races there. Those were also the second and third races of his career, and since his final run at Churchill Downs on November 12, Resilience has won two of his last three races. The colt is trained by Bill Mott, whose horses earned more than $18.6 million last year, the most of his legendary career. Mott had 10 Grade 1 victories last year, and Demling expects him to have Resilience ready to run a strong race at the 2024 Kentucky Derby. Resilience is one of Demling's favorite longshot bets for the 2024 Run for the Roses. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
