Already considered the Super Bowl of horse racing, the 2024 Kentucky Derby will feature a record-setting $5 million purse. The winner will receive $3.1 million, with the remaining $1.9 million divided among the top-five finishers at Churchill Downs. Twenty horses will head to post at the Kentucky Derby 2024 on Saturday. The top 2024 Kentucky Derby contenders in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds are Fierceness (5-2), Sierra Leone (3-1) and Catching Freedom (8-1). Should you back one of the 2024 Kentucky Derby favorites or invest in one of the potential 2024 Kentucky Derby sleepers like Honor Marie (20-1), Dornoch (20-1) or Domestic Product (30-1)?
The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness comes rolling into the Kentucky Derby 2024 off a dominant 13 1/2-length win at the Florida Derby on March 30. His 110 Beyer Speed Figure was the fastest recorded this year by any horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.
However, Fierceness has shown a concerning pattern of up-and-down performances. He's never won two straight races, and his third-place finish at the Holy Bull Stakes in February was far less inspiring. His odds opened low on the morning line and will likely stay there due to his Florida Derby run, so Demling sees better value in other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Dornoch will try to become the first horse since Ferdinand (1986) to win from post No. 1. However, Dornoch possesses the speed to set the pace and hold off the rest of the 2024 Kentucky Derby field.
Dornoch won the Fountain of Youth Stakes and Remsen Stakes with pacesetting tactics. Demling believes that jockey Luis Saez will send Dornoch from the second the gate opens at the Kentucky Derby. He should be among the frontrunners around the first turn and if he can settle and save energy, he might be a factor down the stretch. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
