The 2024 Kentucky Derby will take place at Churchill Downs on Saturday and now that the 20-horse 2024 Kentucky Derby field is set, horse racing handicappers are preparing for the year's biggest event. This will mark the 150th Run for the Roses, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby purse increasing from $3 million for the last five years to $5 million. Sierra Leone led all three-year-olds in Kentucky Derby qualifying points with 155 after winning the Risen Star Stakes and Blue Grass Stakes. Trainer Chad Brown had a second-place finish with Good Magic in 2018, but he's still searching for that elusive Derby win. Sierra Leone might be his best shot yet at 3-1 in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds.
The only horse in the 2024 Kentucky Derby lineup with shorter odds is Fierceness, who won the Florida Derby by 13.5 lengths at the end of March. The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Fierceness was dominant at Gulfstream Park in his last start, but he's failed to string two victories together in five career starts.
Fierceness broke his maiden at Saratoga last August, but finished a wildly disappointing seventh at the Champagne Stakes in October. Fierceness followed that up with a win in the Breeders' Cup Juvenile, but finished third in his three-year-old debut at the Holy Bull despite going off as a heavy favorite. He ran his best race at the Florida Derby, but will the trend continue with another poor performance at Churchill Downs? Trainer Todd Pletcher is a two-time Derby winner, but he needed 62 mounts to do it (3.1% winning percentage). See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Resilience, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. Resilience comes from one of the most successful bloodlines in recent Kentucky Derby history. Resilience is the son of Into Mischief, who has sired two of the last four Kentucky Derby winners (Authentic in 2020, Mandaloun in 2021).
Resilience is a proven winner from that bloodline. In fact, he has won two of his last three races. The colt has finished third or better in four of six career races and has recently run against some of the top horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby field. Although Resilience finished fourth behind Kentucky Derby horses such as Sierra Leone and Catching Freedom at the 2024 Risen Star on Feb. 17, he was running at the front for the majority of the race on a sloppy racetrack that evening. Better conditions could favor Resilience, who had a drastic rise in HRN speed from an 89 in the poor conditions to a 97 score while winning the Wood Memorial (G2) on April 6. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
