No horse has won the Kentucky Derby from post position 2 since Affirmed in the first leg of his 1978 Triple Crown season, yet Sierra Leone (3-1) will try to defy the historical trends. The second favorite in the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds, the Chad Brown-trained Sierra Leone won the Blue Grass Stakes with a devastating closing kick and will try to do the same in the biggest race for three-year-old horses. With the Kentucky Derby odds 2024 favoring Todd Pletcher's Fierceness (5-2), there should be plenty of value in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta Kentucky Derby bets if the top two choices fail to hit the board.
The 2024 Kentucky Derby post time is 6:57 p.m. ET. Before making any 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, be sure to see the horse racing predictions and futures bets from SportsLine's elite horse racing expert Jody Demling.
A fixture in the horse racing world who has been writing about, talking about and betting on races for years, Demling enters the 2024 Kentucky Derby having nailed the winner of the Belmont Stakes four of the last six years, including an exacta in 2022 with Mo Donegal and Nest. He also called Flightline's win at the Breeders' Cup Classic in November of that year.
Demling is at his best in the biggest horse races in the world like the Kentucky Derby 2024. In fact, he has hit 10 of the last 15 Derby-Oaks doubles at Churchill Downs. That means he held a ticket with the winners of both races all but five times in the last 15 years. He's also called 10 of the last 19 Preakness winners, including nailing his Preakness winner, exacta and superfecta picks in 2023, keenly understanding when the Kentucky Derby winner was poised for victory or a massive upset. Anyone who has followed him is up huge.
Now, with the 2024 Kentucky Derby odds already on the board, Demling is sharing his picks and 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions over at SportsLine. Go here to see them.
Top 2024 Kentucky Derby predictions
One of Demling's surprising 2024 Kentucky Derby picks: He is fading Fierceness, even though he's the top favorite and just won the Florida Derby. Trained by two-time Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Todd Pletcher, Fierceness won the Florida Derby by more than 13 lengths and posted an impressive 110 Beyer Speed Figure. However, he has never won two consecutive races and might face trouble being so wide at the outset of the race.
Pletcher is 2-for-62 in the Kentucky Derby, though on his best day, Fierceness is among the top prospects he's ever trained. Demling, though, sees value in other horses in the 2024 Kentucky Derby starting lineup and is opting to fade the oddsmakers' top choice. See which other 2024 Kentucky Derby horses to avoid at SportsLine.
Another stunner: Demling is high on Dornoch, even though he's a 20-1 longshot. He's a target for anyone looking for a huge payday. The son of 2018 Kentucky Derby runner-up Good Magic and grandson of 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown, Dornoch is coming off a disappointing fourth-place finish at the Blue Grass Stakes. However, he'd won his previous three starts, including wins in the Remsen Stakes and Fountain of Youth Stakes.
Dornoch bested Sierra Leone at the Remsen, but Sierra Leone came out on top during the rematch at Keeneland. Now, they'll break side-by-side at the 150th Kentucky Derby, with Dornoch breaking from the rail and Sierra Leone coming from the No. 2 post. It's a draw that fits Dornoch's style if he can get a clean break, as he prefers to go towards the front of the pack early. See which other horses to back at SportsLine.
How to make 2024 Kentucky Derby picks, bets
Demling is especially high on an epic double-digit longshot who "keeps getting better and better." Demling is sharing which horse it is, along with his entire projected 2024 Kentucky Derby leaderboard, over at SportsLine.
Which horse wins the Kentucky Derby 2024, and which double-digit longshot is a must-back? Check out the latest 2024 Kentucky Derby odds below, then visit SportsLine to see Demling's picks for the Kentucky Derby, all from the expert who nailed 10 Derby-Oaks doubles.
2024 Kentucky Derby odds, futures
| Prg # | Horse | Odds | Projection |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dornoch | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 2 | Sierra Leone | 3-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 3 | Mystik Dan | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 4 | Catching Freedom | 8-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 5 | Catalytic | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 6 | Just Steel | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 7 | Honor Marie | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 8 | Just a Touch | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 9 | Encino | 20-1 | SCR |
| 10 | T O Password (JPN) | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 11 | Forever Young (JPN) | 10-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 12 | Track Phantom | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 13 | West Saratoga | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 14 | Endlessly | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 15 | Domestic Product | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 16 | Grand Mo the First | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 17 | Fierceness | 5-2 | SEE PICKS |
| 18 | Stronghold | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 19 | Resilience | 20-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 20 | Society Man | 50-1 | SEE PICKS |
| 21 | Epic Ride | 30-1 | SEE PICKS |
