This is the last chance to make it into the Sprint Cup Series title race. And six contenders will be battling for the final two spots in the Can-Am 500 at Phoenix International Raceway on Sunday.
Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards -- winners at Martinsville and Texas, respectively -- have already secured their places in the Championship 4 race at Homestead-Miami Speedway on Nov. 20.
Now Joey Logano, Joe Gibbs Racing drivers Kyle Busch, Matt Kenseth and Denny Hamlin, and Stewart-Haas Racing teammates Kevin Harvick and Kurt Busch will fight for the other two remaining bids.
"It's gonna be exciting, said Hamlin, who is two points below the cutoff mark. "We are in for a very, very competitive race where I think that the guys that are battling for points - if we are not battling for wins - we are all gonna be very, very close to each other all day long. So I think it's down to the last lap."
Harvick has to be the favorite among the six contenders. The Stewart-Haas Racing driver won the spring race for his fifth triumph in his last six visits. And the time he didn't win in the span? It was a runner-up finish after rain shortened this event last year. Overall, Harvick has eight wins and 16 top 10s in 27 starts at Phoenix.
Still, the Stewart-Haas Racing driver knows that continuing that desert dominance on Sunday isn't automatic.
"I've been around this long enough to know that there are no givens in this particular sport," said Harvick, who won Phoenix in 2014 on his way to his lone Cup title. "There is too many things that can go wrong."
And what about a potential retaliation by Austin Dillon, whose crew said 'write that number down' after the No. 3 driver was involved in an on-track incident with Harvick at Texas?
"He can handle things however he wants to handle them," said Harvick of the Richard Childress Racing driver. "I reached out to him and he didn't reach back, so it is what it is. He can handle it how he needs to."
Besides a potential payback, Harvick will also have to be mindful that the competition is catching up after his .010-second margin of victory over Edwards in March.
"This garage area is very tough and advantages don't last very long," Logano said. "Yes, he is very fast here but he's also beatable here. Look at the spring race; that's pretty close."
"I feel like my team has everything to beat him."
Logano, though, is the only contender yet to win at Phoenix. He finished 18th in the spring race, ending a run of five straight top 10s.
"This has been a good race track for us," said Logano, who is a point above the cutoff. " In the past we've run well here. We haven't gotten the win yet but we've come close quite a few times."
Kyle Busch has won once at Phoenix, but that was in 2005 while with Hendrick Motorsports. He finished fourth in the spring race and has 14 top 10s -- six coming in the last eight trips -- in 22 races. He is right behind Logano in the standings.
"We just need to try to make sure that we can finish ahead of those that we are racing essentially," said Kyle Busch, driver of the No. 18 Toyota. "That's kind of what our mindset and our goals are. "
Kenseth, a point below the cutoff, has visited Victory Lane in the desert once. That win came in 2002 with Roush Racing. He does have 11 top 10s in 27 races, including a seventh-place run in March.
"It hasn't been our strongest track I guess probably the last four or five years," Kenseth said. " But in the spring we didn't run bad."
And while Joe Gibbs is guaranteed to have at least one driver in the championship race with Edwards already punching his ticket, the organization is looking for more bids on Sunday.
"The goal is to have three out of the five [cars] in there next weekend," said Kenseth, counting Toyota affiliate Martin Truex Jr. as the fifth car.
But what if it means pulling a Ryan Newman -- who moved Kyle Larson in 2014 to reach Homestead -- to advance?
"If it's not a teammate, I'm hoping their spotter is gonna give them a heads-up that the 11 [car] is coming,' said Hamlin, who won at Phoenix in 2012. "I would definitely have no issues doing something like that.
"That was a little aggressive. But moving someone to get a spot in the final four? I'm not sure anyone would really fault you for that."
What about Kyle Busch? Would he give in to desperation and ditch a teammate to move on?
"Absolutely,' the reigning Sprint Cup champ said.
Kurt Busch, Kyle's older brother, has the biggest deficit of the six contenders. But the Stewart-Haas driver has won at Phoenix before, in 2005 while with Roush Racing. The 2004 Cup champ has top 10 finishes in his last four trips, including a sixth-place run earlier this year.
"Our scenario to advance is to win," said Kurt Busch, 34 points outside the cutline.
Kurt Busch's teammate Harvick believes unless your name is Johnson or Edwards, you're in the same boat.
"Everybody is in the same position that we are because if somebody wins there's only one points guy that goes through," said Harvick, saddled with an 18-point deficit. "You need to pretend like you're in must-win situation if you want to plan on going to Homestead because there is gonna be probably somebody that does win in those eight and you will have to win again next week to win the championship.
"So it's kind of the nature of the beast at this point in time, especially with two different winners already."
