Trivia question: Which two horses enter the Preakness Stakes off a win? The answer: Kentucky Derby winner Mystik Dan and Pat Day Mile winner and 15-1 Preakness longshot Seize the Grey. The latter may not have been obvious, but Seize the Grey is in career-best form and is trained by a man who has won this race six times.
6 Seize the Grey (15-1)
- Trainer D. Wayne Lukas
- Jockey Jaime Torres
- Last race First in the Pat Day Mile by 1¼ lengths
- Career record 9 starts: 3 wins, 3 thirds
- Career earnings $619,938
- Best career Beyer Speed Figure 88 (2024 Pat Day Mile)
- Sire Arrogate
What to know about Seize the Grey
Here's the good news for Seize the Grey fans: He has never been better. Two weeks ago in the Pat Day Mile on the Kentucky Derby undercard, he pressed a hot pace, went four-wide and split rivals to win. The victory earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 88, the best of his career.
He also has versatility. Though he won the Pat Day Mile pressing the pace, he has won on the lead and rallying from fifth. He also has won on both wet and dry tracks.
And he has the Coach, trainer D. Wayne Lukas, in his corner. Lukas has won the Preakness six times, the third most wins by a trainer ever.
But the bad news is that Seize the Grey figures to be too slow to win. His 88 career-best Beyer is better than just two horses in the field (longshots Mugatu and Uncle Heavy) and is well shy of the best speed figures earned by the favorites. Seize the Grey will need to improve significantly off just two weeks rest to even be competitive.
The distance is a major question. Seize the Grey is 0-for-2 in races at nine furlongs or longer, having finished seventh in the Blue Grass Stakes and third in the Jeff Ruby Steaks. The Preakness will be run at 9½ furlongs.
The combination of being too slow and the race being too long figures to be too much for Seize the Grey on Saturday.
Post draw analysis
Seize the Grey went fast early in the Pat Day Mile and, since it worked last time, could very well do so in the Preakness Stakes from post No. 6. That strategy also makes sense for his stablemate, Just Steel, who would be able to sit behind the speed horses and not press them like he did in the Kentucky Derby. With the scratch of Muth from the race, Seize the Grey could very well be the one setting the pace.
