George Springer and Jose Altuve should lead an improved Astros offense. (USATSI)
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Pitchers and catchers report in 15 days and most of the country is blanketed in snow, so that must mean it's time to start turning our attention to Fantasy baseball. Though Scott White and Al Melchior have been hard at work prepping for this season since last October, my attention has been elsewhere -- following the bouncing orange ball, mainly.
However, we already have two mock drafts -- one H2H, one Roto -- under our belts, so it's high time I get my house in order. In preparing for the season, I've noticed a few places where my take on a player's value differs from my (much more knowledgeable, intelligent and handsome) colleagues, so I figured I would kick off my 2015 Fantasy baseball coverage by noting a few of them.
The players I like more than Al or Scott aren't necessarily players I must have this season, but I might go a round or two higher than conventional wisdom on them. Conversely, I'm not avoiding the other trio by any means, but I just might not want them where there are set to go this season. It's all relative to expectations, after all.
Players I like more
George Springer, OF, Astros
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 63rd and 19th overall
Where I would take Springer: Late 3rd in Roto
Springer showed a lot of promise in his first taste of the majors a year ago, but we didn't get the whole bag of tricks. Springer slugged 20 home runs, drove in 51 and scored 45 in just 78 games, putting him on pace for 40, 100 and 90 in 162 games -- no player in baseball matched those numbers last season, and it is no secret that Springer has the potential to be one of the league's elite run producers. If all we get out of him is a 35-95-85 and a .250 average from him, Springer could be a top-10 outfielder this season.
The idea that a 25-year-old entering his second season might have even more upside than that is pretty tough to wrap your mind around, but keep in mind Springer is also a better athlete than he showed in his first stint in the majors. Springer stole six bases in 16 games in the minors last season, compared to just five in his 78 games in the majors, four of which came from June 29 through July 5. Just as he was starting to figure out how to best utilize his speed, he started dealing with a sore knee and quad injury that eventually ended his season.
Though he is known more for his prodigious power, Springer actually had more stolen bases in the minors than home runs. He had 24 home runs and 32 stolen bases in 2012, and then followed that up with 37 and 45 in 2013, and had an 84.5 percent success rate on 103 attempts overall. Though it might be overstating it to say he has 40-40 potential like his 2013 season hints at, it isn't out of the question Springer could go for 30-30, assuming his legs can stay healthy.
Springer has clear downside, given how much swing and miss he has in his game. I may have reached to take him in the third round of our 12-team, Roto mock draft last week, but I believe in Springer's talent, and wouldn't be surprised if he ended up a first-round producer by the end of the season.
Starlin Castro, SS, Cubs
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 239th and 129th overall
Where I would take Castro: 10th round in Roto
I'm with Scott on this one -- Sorry, Al. Castro doesn't offer much in the way of secondary skills, especially since he stopped stealing bases two years ago. However, his track record, 2013 aside, is mostly good, and I think he will be closer to 2014 than 2013. Castro makes enough solid contact that I think he will sustain a pretty high BABIP, even if we project some regression for him from last season's .337 mark. Castro isn't a difference-maker, but I think he can be something like the shortstop version of Howie Kendrick. That isn't high praise, but shortstop is also a weaker position than second base at this point, so I would feel fine about having Castro as my starter there if I can pencil in a .280 average and 15 or so home runs.
Steven Souza, OF, Rays
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 191st and 245th overall
Where I would take Souza: 15th round in Roto
I was able to snag Souza in the 17th round in our Roto mock last week, but he had been in my queue for two rounds before I finally pulled the trigger. Souza has a decent amount of hype around him for someone with a .130/.231/.391 line in 23 major-league plate appearances, and he is someone I want in every league if the price remains low enough.
Souza's overall minor-league numbers are pretty mediocre, as he carries a .260/.354/.440 triple-slash line in 2,956 plate appearances. However, he has looked like an absolute stud since getting to the upper levels of the minors, hitting .300/.396/.557 in Double-A followed by a .350/.432/.590 line in Triple-A. He has the potential to be a really good power-speed combination, with 56 home runs and 64 stolen bases over the last three minor-league seasons, despite playing 100 games just once in three years.
Souza figures to get plenty of playing time for the Rays, and if he can replicate even some of his production from the high minors, he could be an absolute steal in the late rounds. As a fifth outfielder, which is where I got Souza in our mock draft, I love his upside.
Players I like less
Jose Altuve, 2B, Astros
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 7th and 15th overall
Where I would take Altuve: 2nd round
This isn't about me not liking Altuve, just liking him a bit less than Scott, Al and the general consensus overall. Altuve took a huge step forward last season, and it isn't crazy to expect someone who isn't even 24 on Opening Day to continue building on it. He never strikes out, has incredible speed, and should be hitting at the top of a much-improved lineup this season, which should only boost his run total. However, Altuve also rode a .360 BABIP to success last season, and it will be very tough for him to avoid a step back if he can't keep that up.
Even if we accept that Altuve is a high-BABIP player, and given his speed and plate discipline, it seems likely .360 is hard for anyone to sustain. In 2013, nine players had a .360 or higher BABIP among qualified batters; they averaged a .333 mark, and only three even reached .350. BABIP isn't all based on skill, but it's very hard for any player to consistently reach the heights Altuve was at a year ago. If his BABIP just falls to .331, his career mark, Altuve is probably closer to a .315 hitter. That would have still finished in the top-10 last season, but it would certainly knock him down a peg, especially with fewer run-scoring and base-stealing chances coming with fewer appearances on base.
Altuve could end up being a first-round pick in some leagues, but it's hard to see him justifying that price if he takes a small step back. Given how much of an outlier 2014 was, I'm a bit worried, though not so much that I will avoid him on Draft Day. I took him 15th overall in our Roto mock, but looking back, I should have just gone with Robinson Cano, who went one pick later. He is safer.
A.J. Pollock, OF, Diamondbacks
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 125th and 218th overall
Where I would take Pollock: 15th round in Roto
On a per-game basis, Pollock enjoyed a fine season a year ago, hitting .302/.353/.498 in 75 games, with seven home runs and 14 stolen bases. Based on that pace, he could be a 15-30 player if a few things break right, which could make him a very useful Fantasy option. He also finished 26th in the league in Fantasy points per game among outfielders, a good sign if you are drafting him as your third or even fourth outfielder in H2H formats.
However, projecting Pollock for a home run total in the mid-teens is asking him to do something he has never done, at any level. Sure, he was on pace for that last season, but that was mostly based on a hot two months, as he hit six of his seven in April and May before a broken hand cost him three months of action. Maybe his power drought in September was the result of the injury, however his batting line of .273/.326/.387 (with a .299 BABIP) looks virtually indistinguishable from his .265/.320/.406 line over the first 575 plate appearances of his career.
Pollock isn't quite as young as he might seem; he turned 27 a few months ago. It is fair to wonder if he was finally starting to find his way before the injury derailed him, but I can't see much in his major or minor-league track record that makes me think he is someone I want to bet on. Pollock went in the 15th round in our mock draft, and that's fair given his youth and apparent upside, but I wouldn't pull the trigger any sooner.
Todd Frazier, 3B, Reds
Where Al and Scott have him ranked: 33rd and 50th overall
Where I would take Frazier: 6th round
A third-base eligible player with 30-20 potential is about as rare a commodity you can find in Fantasy baseball, so it makes sense that Frazier went in the fourth round of our mock. However, drafting Frazier with the expectation he will be able to keep that up is probably asking too much.
There's no doubting Frazier has solid power, with three seasons of 19 or more homers in a row under his belt. However, he was a one-half player last season, hitting 19 of his home runs before the All-Star break, with just 10 afterwards. And while it might be tempting to blame his swoon on his participation in the Home Run Derby, it might just be as simple as he got hot and then came back to earth. Frazier homered once every 19.05 at-bats before the All-Star break, compared to once every 23.5 afterward; his career mark entering the season was one home run every 24.2 at-bats, so the first half looks like the outlier here.
Frazier also swiped 20 of his 30 career bags last season, and 14 of them came before the All-Star break as well. Maybe he got fatigued as the season wore on, but there is a clear delineation between the Frazier who is worth an early draft pick and the guy we expected him to be after his first two major-league seasons. Betting on Frazier's upside isn't a bad idea, but doing so with Nolan Arenado and Evan Longoria still on the board, as happened in our mock draft, doesn't seem like the right move.
