The 2015 edition of the Subway Series opens Friday night at Yankee Stadium. Unlike the past few years, when the Yankees and Mets played a four-game home-and-home series, they're playing two three-game series this year. That means each series will have a winner and that's what everyone wants. Bragging rights are on the line.
This is the first time in Subway Series history both the Yankees and Mets are at least tied for first place heading into the series. The Mets have baseball's best record at 13-3 while the Yankees are in a three-way tie atop the AL East at 9-7. Here are eight things to know heading into this weekend's Subway Series matchup.
1. The Mets are hottest team in baseball.
Unless you've been completely disconnected from the baseball world the last few days, you know the Mets are riding an 11-game winning streak. They outscored their opponents 57-31 during the 11 games yet they margin of victory has been small more often than not -- five of the 11 were decided by one run and two others were decided by two runs. Closer Jeurys Familia saved eight of the 11 wins.
During the 11-game winning streak, the Mets' have gotten a stellar 2.79 ERA from their starters with 60 strikeouts and only 10 walks, which is incredible. (The MLB average is 2.50 K/BB.) They rotation is averaging 6 2/3 innings per start as well. If the Mets are going to contend this year -- and it sure looks like they will -- it will be on the strength of their rotation, and right now their rotation is delivering.
2. The Yankees are the second hottest team in baseball.
The Yankees just won three of four from the Tigers in Detroit and have won six of their last seven games overall. They've outscored their opponents 41-20 in the seven games. The Tigers had the best record in baseball at the start of the week, so the Yankees are facing the team with the best record in MLB for the second straight series.
Following their miserable start to the season -- the Yankees went 2-4 in their first six games and played horribly, in every phase of the game -- the Bronx Bombers have righted the ship over the last week and a half and are playing much cleaner baseball. They committed nine errors in the first six games and only three since. Like the Mets, the Yankees are a run prevention team, and at the moment they are performing as capable.
3. The Mets are really banged up.
The 11-game winning streak came with a price. The Mets recently lost third baseman and captain David Wright (hamstring), starting catcher Travis d'Arnaud (broken finger) and ace lefty reliever Jerry Blevins (broken forearm) for several weeks due to injury. Wright hurt himself running the bases, d'Arnaud was hit by a pitch and Blevins was hit by a comebacker.
The Mets are also without their three best non-Familia righty relievers in Bobby Parnell (Tommy John surgery), Jenrry Mejia (elbow, suspension) and Vic Black (shoulder). Lefty Josh Edgin (Tommy John surgery) is also out. His injury is the reason they traded for Blevins near the end of spring training. And finally, Zack Wheeler (Tommy John surgery) is also done for the year.
The Yankees are relatively healthy, on the other hand. Ivan Nova (Tommy John surgery) and Chris Capuano (quad) are a few weeks from returning to the rotation and utility infielders Jose Pirela (concussion) and Brendan Ryan (calf) are expected back in May. That's it. The Yankees are definitely the healthier team heading into the Subway Series.
4. The Yankees will be favorites in a battle of the bullpens.
Although the co-closers scenario never materialized as Yankees manager Joe Girardi indicated it would, Andrew Miller and Dellin Betances are the best lefty-righty bullpen combination in baseball. Here is their combined pitching line this season:
16 2/3 IP, 7 H, 1 R, 0 ER, 11 BB, 27 K
The walks are high because of Betances, who struggled with his mechanics for about two weeks before things started to click against the Tigers. He is working as a multi-inning setup man, a role he filled so excellently last year. Miller is (still unofficially) the closer and has gone 6-for-6 in save chances. Overall, the Yankees bullpen has a 2.03 ERA with 10.2 K/9.
The Mets' relief corps has been very good -- 2.79 ERA and 9.4 K/9 -- but isn't as deep or dynamic as their crosstown rivals' bullpen due in part to all those injuries. They're much more vulnerable if the starter exits the game after five or six innings. Getting the ball from the starter to Familia can be a bit of a headache.
5. The Mets will have no trouble using a DH.
Most NL teams are at a disadvantage when they play in an AL park because of the DH. When an AL team plays in an NL park, they lose the DH, but that just levels the playing field. When an NL team plays in an AL park, they're forced to put a bench player in the starting lineup. NL clubs usually don't have that spare big bat lying run.
The Mets have a capable bat in John Mayberry Jr., who is off to a hot start (.250/.357/.667) in a small sample (14 plate appearances), though he has been about 13 percent better than league average offensively since the start of last season when adjusted for ballpark and the current run-scoring environment.
Mayberry figures to slot in at DH -- or into left field or first base with Michael Cuddyer or Lucas Duda getting time at DH -- and will give the Mets some extra pop. The league average DH is hitting .239/.319/.366 so far in 2015. Mayberry doesn't have to meet a high bar to be a help this weekend.
6. Both teams are throwing power arms. Oh boy the power arms.
If you enjoy young power pitching, this will be the series for you. Here are the Subway Series pitching matchups.
Friday: Jacob deGrom vs. Michael Pineda, 7pm ET (MLB Network)
Saturday: Matt Harvey vs. CC Sabathia, 4pm ET (Fox Sports 1)
Sunday: Jonathon Niese vs. Nathan Eovaldi, 8pm ET (ESPN)
Eovaldi and Pineda are actually younger than deGrom and Harvey, though they haven't had the same level of MLB success. It's too bad a) Masahiro Tanaka isn't pitching this weekend, and b) the two veteran lefties (Sabathia and Niese) aren't starting the same game so the other guys could match up.
Among the 104 qualified starters in baseball this season, Eovaldi ranks second in average fastball velocity (95.9), Harvey ranks fifth (94.9), deGrom ranks 10th (94.0) and Pineda ranks a distant 73rd (90.3). So that's three of the 10 hardest throwers in baseball in one series and another guy with one of the game's most vicious sliders. The pitching, man. It'll be fun.
7. Harvey is going to be amped up in Yankee Stadium.
Harvey has pitched in the Subway Series before (8 IP, 6 H, 1 R, 1 ER, 0 BB, 10 K in 2013) but it was a game at Citi Field. This weekend will be his first taste of Yankee Stadium. Saturday's game will be nationally televised -- all three games will be nationally televised -- and Harvey has shown he's a bit of an adrenaline junkie. Remember how he came out throwing 99 mph bullets in his first spring training start following Tommy John surgery a few weeks ago? Expect Harvey to be amped up Saturday, and when Harvey is amped up, he can do some special things.
8. A-Rod is playing! A-Rod A-Rod A-Rod. All A-Rod, all the time.
The Yankees are baseball's villain. Non-Yankees fans watch them because they want to watch them fail. And baseball's most villainous team has the biggest villain in MLB (all of sports?) on its roster in Alex Rodriguez. One of the local tabloids depicted Rodriguez as the Joker on Friday morning:
A-Rod is off to a surprisingly great start this season (.264/.419/.571) and he's destroying fastballs: he's hitting .353 with a 1.118 slugging percentage against heaters this year compared to the .260 and .419 league averages, respectively.
Lots of people are going to tune in this weekend to see deGrom and Harvey embarrass Rodriguez with fastballs, and they might do that, but A-Rod is capable of surprising people and turning those pitches around in a hurry.
Prediction Time!
Predictions are made to be wrong, so feel free to bookmark this and come back for laugh on Monday. My prediction: Yankees win two of three. The Mets will win Saturday's Harvey-Sabathia matchup but the Yankees will use a bunch of homers, a strong team defense and an impenetrable bullpen to win Friday and Sunday. With Blevins and Edgin out, the Mets don't have the lefty pitching to counteract the Yankees' power lefty bats in cozy Yankee Stadium.
