2016 MLB team preview: Rangers look to repeat as AL West champions

Spring training is nearing its end, leaving Opening Day a skip and a hop and another skip away. That means we're closing in on concluding our team previews series. This year, we're working through the league in reverse order of 2015 finish. Today, the Texas Rangers are on the clock.

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A year ago, the Rangers were in an uneviable position. They had just lost ace Yu Darvish to Tommy John surgery, and were months removed from a 67-win season that saw longtime manager Ron Washington resign amid unusual circumstances. Conditions went from bad to worse in the coming weeks, as Derek Holland left his first regular-season start with an injury of his own. By the time May rolled around, the Rangers were 7-14 and starting two pitchers (Wandy Rodriguez and Ross Detwiler) who would finish the season in other organizations.

Much changed in the ensuing months. The Rangers’ position became an enviable one late last season, when they overcame an eight-game deficit in August en route to a division crown. Rookie skipper Jeff Banister—himself well-acquainted with the underdog role—even saw his club take a 2-0 Divisional Series lead over the favored Blue Jays before losing a thrilling (and heartbreaking) Game Five.

And now? It’s a good time to be Texas. In addition to a promising, star-laden roster, the Rangers have a number of potential impact prospects on the cusp. The West figures to be wild, but the Rangers have a legitimate shot at taming it for the second year in a row.

The Lineup

As always, this could change in the coming weeks. For now, it’s our best guess at what the Rangers will roll out on Opening Day:

The Rangers scored the third-most runs in the majors last season, checking in just behind the Yankees and (like everyone else) well behind the Blue Jays. Bet on this crew piling up the runs in 2016, too.

Desmond, the Rangers’ biggest offseason addition, should face fewer questions about his glove as he moves to left field. His defensive issues at shortstop were often clustered within a short period (usually April), and there’s every reason to expect him to fare better with the leather than Hanley Ramirez did last season. Unfortunately, Desmond will still have to assuage concerns about his bat: his strikeout rate and power production have moved in the wrong directions in each of the last two years, and a return to his 2013-14 levels would leave him closer to the positional average than all-star territory. The Rangers are probably hoping that the move away from shortstop will calm Desmond’s mind and, just as importantly, propel his offense.

However the Desmond signing works out, you can understand why the Rangers decided to gamble after Josh Hamilton showed up to camp on crutches following offseason knee surgery. Hamilton’s health has been problematic throughout his career, and his unavailability was going to force Texas to pick between playing mediocre veterans and rushing top prospects; Desmond, then, is the happy medium between safeness and upside. Of course, Desmond is also a portent about what the Rangers expect (or don’t expect) to get from Hamilton this season. On the bright side, at least the Angels are the ones footing most of the bill.

caption text here — Rougned Odor can hit many, many licks. (USATSI)

Everyone knows what Choo, Fielder, and Beltre bring to a lineup; sooner than later, a similar familiarity will apply to Odor, the young second baseman who used the Divisional Series as a launching pad. Truthfully, Odor’s star had been on the rise for months prior to the postseason: once he returned from the minors in mid-June, he batted .292/.334/.527 with 15 home runs—numbers that would’ve made him one of the top offensive second basemen in the game over the course of the regular season. Not bad for someone who turned 22 in February.

Here’s the craziest part of Odor’s ascent: you can make the case he isn’t the most exciting young hitter in the organization. Instead, that honor could go to Nomar Mazara or Joey Gallo (not to mention Lewis Brinson or Jurickson Profar, who, at 23, is attempting to stay on the field for the first time since 2013). So, yeah, the Rangers are loaded with young, talented hitters who ought to reach the majors sooner than later.

Other items of note: Justin Ruggiano is going to see action against left-handed pitchers, likely as part of a platoon with Moreland; Chris Gimenez is no longer Cole Hamels’ personal catcher, but he should split squatting duties with Chirinos anyway; and big-league veterans Ike Davis and Drew Stubbs are both in camp as non-roster invitees--in theory, either could crack the bench.

The Rotation

For the first time in a while, Mike Maddux will not enter the season as the Rangers’ pitching coach. The Rangers made a change after seven seasons, replacing Maddux with longtime reliever Doug Brocail, whose previous pitching coach experience included two years with the cross-state Astros. Here’s what Brocail will have to work with to begin the season:

Acquired in a blockbuster trade last deadline, Hamels took well to his new environment in a hurry by improving upon his seasonal strikeout-to-walk ratio and throwing eight quality starts in 12 tries. His changeup remains one of the best in baseball, and with another 200-inning season he’ll have stretched his streak to seven in a row. Hamels is more than qualified to serve as the Rangers’ bellcow.

Should Lewis make 25 more starts, he'll join Charlie Hough, Bobby Witt, and Kenny Rogers as the only pitchers to tally 200 (or more) with the organization. Don’t expect Lewis to reach that mark with flames: the result of a torque-bereft delivery is a fastball that averaged 87 mph in 2015. Holland and Perez were limited last season to 24 combined starts. Both have shown they can pitch at league-average or better levels in the past.

With all due respect to the rest of Texas’ projected rotation, their next-most important starter isn’t listed above. Yu Darvish continues to work his way back from Tommy John surgery, and is expected to return to the rotation sometime in mid-to-late May. If all goes well, Darvish could give the Rangers one of the best one-two punches in baseball.

Once Darvish returns, expect Martinez to get bumped to the minors. Though he has a wonderful background story (he was a collegiate infielder) and he got off to an impressive start last season (he allowed one earned run in April), his lacking profile makes him the odd-man out. In fact, Martinez could well fall below Chi Chi Gonzalez on the organizational depth chart. Gonzalez didn’t have a great introduction to the big leagues, but his fastball command and groundball tendencies make him a potential mid-rotation starter.

The Bullpen

Shawn Tolleson is one of the unlikeliest closers in baseball. He’s a former 30th-round pick who the Rangers claimed off waivers back in 2013 to little fanfare. Tolleson took advantage of Neftali Feliz’s continued struggles and rode his three-pitch mix--a fastball that bores and touches the mid-90s, a changeup, and a slider--to a permanent gig. Banister asked a lot of Tolleson late last season, so keep an eye on his usage.

Should Tolleson miss time (or follow in Feliz’s footsteps), the Rangers could turn to either Tom Wilhelmsen or Keone Kela. Wilhelmsen came over from the Rangers in the Leonys Martin trade and is best known for his devastating curveball. Kela, on the other hand, is one of the best young relievers in the league. He throws an upper-90s fastball and a hard breaking ball, and held rightes to a .194/.229/.299 mark in 2015. Southpaw Jake Diekman and Sam Dyson were both acquired midseason. The similarities go beyond that, as each can light up a radar gun and ought to receive high-leverage opportunities.

Among the other names you’ll probably see warming up for the Rangers in 2016: lefties Sam Freeman and Cesar Ramos, and righties Tanner Scheppers and Tony Barnette, who signed a multi-year deal with Texas after spending the past six seasons in Japan.

The Outlook

Our SportsLine projections have the Rangers finishing last with 77 wins. That’s seemingly too bearish for a club that has all the means to improve in-season. Granted, there are plenty of caveats that come with that expectation--if Darvish returns hearty and hale; if Gallo, Mazara, or whomever else hits the ground running when called upon; and so on. But the Rangers nonetheless have the makings of a competitive team--one that should finish on the right side of .500, and one that could well repeat as divisional champs.