For the first time since 2015, right-hander Carter Capps pitched in a big-league game on Monday night. Capps missed the entire 2016 season and the start of the 2017 season following Tommy John surgery. He pitched for the Marlins from 2014-15, then was traded to the Padres at least year's trade deadline in the Andrew Cashner deal.
When we last saw Capps, he was a truly dominant setup man who struck out 58 batters in 31 innings with Miami in 2015. His numbers before his elbow gave out were insane: 31 IP, 18 H, 5 R, 4 ER, 7 BB, 58 K. That's a 16.8 K/9 with an 8.29 K/BB ratio. Like I said, insane. Capps was as good as any reliever in baseball in those 31 innings.
Also, when we last saw Capps, he had an incredibly unique delivery in which he literally jumped at the opposing hitter. He'd push off with his back foot, jump down the mound, and release the ball that much closer to the plate. Here's video of his jump step delivery:
I have no idea how Capps could jump down the mound like that and still manage to throw strikes. It seems like finding the zone would be awfully tough with a motion like that, yet Capps pulled it off. Pretty amazing.
Over the winter MLB and the MLBPA finalized the new collective bargaining agreement, and during negotiations, the two sides effectively outlawed the jump step delivery. The new rule sounds like it was written specifically for Capps:
An addition to Rule 5.07 formalizes an umpire interpretation by stipulating that a pitcher may not take a second step toward home plate with either foot or otherwise reset his pivot foot in his delivery of the pitch. If there is at least one runner on base, then such an action will be called as a balk under Rule 6.02(a). If the bases are unoccupied, then it will be considered an illegal pitch under Rule 6.02(b).
With the jump step outlawed, Capps spent time during his Tommy John rehab modifying his delivery. He still launches himself down the mound, though rather than jumping and literally bringing his back foot off the ground, he drags it. Because Capps is dragging his foot rather than disconnecting from the mound with a jump, he satisfies the "a pitcher may not take a second step toward home plate" portion of the rule.
Here is Capps during his Padres debut Monday night. From the traditional center field camera, it looks like the same old Capps. But when they zoom in on his feet, you can see he's dragging that back foot, not jumping.
Capps faced five batters in his return Monday night. His outing went fly out, double, ground out, wild pitch, walk, walk. He left the bases loaded and the next pitcher, Phil Maton, allowed a grand slam, so Capps was charged with three runs.
One outing is just one outing, and I'm sure Capps had some jitters in his first game back from Tommy John surgery. Maybe not jitters, but extra adrenaline. Tommy John surgery rehab is long and grueling, so when players make it back, it's almost like they're a rookie making their MLB debut again.
The results are what they are. More notable than the double, two walks, and three runs allowed is Capps' fastball velocity.
- Capps in 2015: 98.7 mph average velocity (101.8 mph max)
- Capps on Monday: 92.4 mph average velocity (95.1 mph max)
Obvious statement is obvious: Capps is coming back from a major arm injury and he may not have his arm strength built all the way back up. He wouldn't the first guy to come back from Tommy John surgery short a few miles an hour and he certainly won't be the last.
That all said, Capps has the unique delivery, and it changed since he last pitched in MLB. The jump has turned into a drag, and it's entirely possible that caused him to lose velocity. Perceived velocity is a fun Statcast tool that tells us how fast a pitch looks to the hitter when factoring in the pitcher's extension. A 92 mph is a 92 mph fastball, but if I take a jump and release it that much closer to the plate, it looks a lot faster than 92 mph. Here are Capp's perceived velocities:
| Average Actual Fastball Velocity | Average Perceived Fastball Velocity | Gain | |
|---|---|---|---|
Capps in 2015 | 98.7 | 101.5 | +2.8 |
Capps on Monday | 92.4 | 95.8 | +3.4 |
So the perceived velocity gain thanks to that unique delivery still exists. It's actually greater than it was before, though keep in mind we are dealing with an extremely small sample size here. Capps threw only 18 fastballs Monday night. In that small sample size, the perceived velocity gain is in the same ballpark as before, and that's good. I would be worried if it were down substantially. (Or intrigued if it were up substantially.)
Based on the limited data, going from the jump-step delivery to the drag-step delivery doesn't cost Capps any perceived velocity. Does it cost him any actual velocity though? Jumping off the mound generates momentum, which could lead to extra raw velocity. The drag may not generate as much momentum and therefore rob Capps of velocity. Think about an outfielder, and how much more he gets on his throw with a crow hop. The same logic applies here. Capps' crow hop is gone.
The x-factor here is the Tommy John surgery. This isn't just a guy who changed his delivery and suddenly lost more than 6 mph off his fastball. This is a guy who changed his delivery and had his arm cut open and his elbow ligament replacement replaced and spent nearly two full years rehabbing. It's impossible to tell whether he's lost velocity because of the surgery or because of the new delivery, or both.
For now, Capps is worth watching over the final seven or so weeks of the regular season to see whether that velocity begins to come back. Like anyone else, Capps at 92-96 mph is very different than Capps at 98-101 mph. The Padres want to get him back up to speed as soon as possible so they can trade him for prospects. Capps is going to be a free agent next year and he's not part of the long-term plans in San Diego. He's a trade chip, and the sooner he begins to look like 2015 Capps, the better.
