After splitting a pair of games in Toronto, the Raptors and 76ers head to the Wells Fargo Center in Philadelphia for Game 3 on Thursday at 8 p.m. ET in the 2019 NBA Playoffs. There's been plenty of line movement in the Sixers vs. Raptors odds after Philadelphia opened as a 1.5-point favorite, but is now sitting as a 1.5-point underdog as tipoff approaches. The over-under has also bumped up a couple points to 217 after opening at 215. Before you make any Sixers vs. Raptors picks, you'll want to see the predictions for the NBA Playoffs 2019 from SportsLine's advanced computer model.
The model, which simulates every game 10,000 times, is crushing its NBA picks. It entered Week 28 of the 2018-19 NBA season with a sterling record on its top-rated picks, returning more than $3,100 in profit to anybody following them. And it has been particularly red-hot on its A-rated NBA money line picks, entering Week 28 on a strong 85-60 run. Anybody who has followed it is way up.
Now it has locked in on 76ers vs. Raptors. We can tell you it's leaning over, and it also says one side of the spread hits in well over 50 percent of simulations. You can only see that selection at SportsLine.
The model is well aware of just how poorly the Raptors shot in Game 2. After shooting 49 percent from the floor in the first six playoff games, Toronto went ice cold in Game 2. The Raptors shot just 36.3 percent from the floor and 27 percent from beyond the arc. In just one of their 82 regular season games did the Raptors shoot worse than 36.3 percent. That is an extreme outlier.
In four regular season matchups with the 76ers, Toronto shot 45 percent from the floor, so there should be some extreme positive regression coming for their shooting numbers as the series goes on. One prime bounce-back candidate is Pascal Siakam, who shot just 9 for 25 in Game 2, after getting anything he wanted against Philly in Game 1. He's averaging 25 points and seven rebounds through two games, while also holding Tobias Harris to just 11.5 points per game on 32 percent shooting. Another big performance from Siakam could be enough to give Toronto a 2-1 series lead.
Just because Toronto is due to shoot better doesn't mean it is a lock to cover the Sixers vs. Raptors spread on Thursday in the NBA Playoffs 2019.
The model also knows that playing on their home court is a huge advantage for the Sixers. Philadelphia had one of the NBA's best home records (31-10) this season, and they covered the spread in 52.3 percent of their home games. Toronto had just a 47.6 percent cover rate on the road.
Embiid was much better at home this season too, averaging 28 points and 14 rebounds at the Wells Fargo Center, as opposed to 25 points and 13 rebounds on the road. The Sixers are going to need their stud big man to get it going if they are going to have a chance in this series, as Butler can't carry them to four wins over a strong Toronto squad. A return home and three days of rest may be exactly what Embiid needs to get right in this game.
So who wins Raptors vs. Sixers? And which side of the spread can you bank on in well over 50 percent of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Raptors vs. 76ers spread you need to jump on, all from the model that has crushed its NBA picks, and find out.
