The list of teams favored to win the SEC East this season, as it has progressed, reads something like, in chronological order: South Carolina, Georgia, South Carolina, Missouri, Georgia ... and after Florida stunned Georgia 38-20 Saturday, it may be time to add another name to the list.
Missouri is the only team in the division with one loss has what's almost certainly the easiest closing schedule among the contenders; it also possesses a head-to-head tiebreaker over Florida. (Yes, that's how badly shaken the race is after the Gators' win in Jacksonville: a head-to-head tiebreaker involving Florida could be critical.) After seeing off Kentucky, the Tigers are all alone in first -- and yes, they're maybe, possibly, probably, your most likely East representative in Atlanta.
But this is the 2014 SEC East, where today's conventional wisdow is tomorrow's inexplicable stupidity, so let's break it down team-by-team among the three contenders with fewer than four losses.
Missouri (4-1)
Remaining schedule: at Texas A&M, at Tennessee, vs. Arkansas
It hasn't always been pretty -- especially when Maty Mauk drops back to pass, or when the team plays against Georgia -- but the Tigers have four wins in the bank and the two easiest possible opponents out of the SEC West. Split the two road games (entirely doable, given both the Aggies' and Vols' quarterback issues) and hold serve at home vs. the Hogs, and 6-2 could very well do it.
The only problem: the head-to-head tiebreaker loss to Georgia. The Tigers don't seem strong enough in the passing department to sweep all three remaining games -- remember, as any and all SEC critics will, that this is the same team that lost at home to Indiana -- and a 6-2 tie with the Bulldogs sends Georgia to Atlanta. Missouri probably needs another Bulldog loss.
Georgia (4-2)
Remaining schedule: at Kentucky, vs. Auburn
Coming into the week, the Bulldogs controlled their own destiny for a playoff berth; now they don't even control their own destiny in the division. One more loss would leave them hoping for two Missouri losses, and might even sink the Bulldogs into a three-way tie with Florida.
And a loss doesn't seem all that unlikely the way they played Saturday. Winning at Kentucky isn't easy in 2014 -- ask South Carolina and Mississippi State -- and Auburn's not the No. 3 team in the country on accident (though the Tigers have been much better at home than on the road). If Georgia doesn't win both, their odds of making Atlanta aren't going to look good at all.
Florida (3-3)
Remaining schedule: at Vanderbilt, vs. South Carolina
Look who's still here! The Gators have a clear path to 5-3, or as clear a path as any team that just finished a game with three complete passes can have. The Commodores really shouldn't present too much of a threat, but Steve Spurrier is not going to lose a game in The Swamp without throwing everything he's got at his former employer.
Even in the event of the Gators finishing 5-3, they would need a pair of Missouri losses and exactly one loss by Georgia -- a head-to-head tie with the Tigers at 5-3 does them no good -- to have a shot. But if that tie does happen, the Gators can win it on the strength of divisional record if one of those two Missouri losses is at Tennessee.
It's a long shot, but it's there.
Kentucky, South Carolina: There are scenarios in which nearly the entire division is sucked into a tie at 4-4, but that would require Missouri and Georgia both losing all of their remaining games. That seems unlikely.
Prediction: The way Auburn has played on the road and given that Georgia really, really shouldn't lose at Kentucky, the guess here -- yes, still -- is that the Bulldogs do finish at 6-2 and win the division when Missouri slips up.
But this is the SEC East in 2014 -- everything's going to change again next week.
