Editor's Note: The Paths to Glory series is intended to serve as a starting point for your team. As we all know, baseball drafts become unpredictable as spring training progresses, but the three options provided here should put you on the right path.
The breakout season so many projected for Nolan Arenado indeed came in 2015, but the 42 home runs he hit went beyond our wildest dreams.
That should cause you to question just how legitimate they were. Then again, it's not like Arenado lives and dies with them. With as much contact as he makes, it's a wonder he didn't hit .300, especially playing half his games at Coors Field. He was also one of only two players with both 40 homers and 40 doubles last season, with Josh Donaldson being the other.
All told, he could probably hit 10 fewer home runs than last year and still live up to the first-round billing. He joins Donaldson as one of three third basemen projected to go in the first round, with Manny Machado in between since he also brings speed to the equation.
Here are three routes to Draft Day success that start with Arenado.
Truth be told, A.J. Pollock would be the perfect complement to anyone you might draft in Round 1, but only those who pick late in Round 1 have a reasonable shot at him. The Arenado owner is a prime example. Pollock would make up for any of Arenado's shortcomings in batting average (like that's a real concern) and give you a nice start in steals, all while building on your advantage in home runs. He's glorious.
Needless to say, you can afford to take a pitcher or two with that head start in the hitter categories. The first big run should come in Round 3 with the probable Cy Young contenders like Jacob deGrom, but Felix Hernandez isn't a big step back in Round 5, ensuring you're one of the 10 teams or so who'll begin with two true aces. And why not fill a premium position in between?
Francisco Lindor figures to be a bigger help in batting average and stolen bases than home runs (though he's not exactly a zero there), so you may feel like you're hurting for power despite the head start Arenado gives you. If so, Miguel Sano has a reasonable shot for 35 homers in his first full season. It'd be nice if you could nab a first baseman with a big drop-off looming at that position, but the best candidates at this stage of the draft aren't exactly 30-homer guys.
This path doesn't begin with Pollock, which immediately makes it inferior to the last, but the top second baseman is a nice consolation prize, especially since he excels in the two areas where Arenado falls short: batting average and, more significantly, stolen bases.
If you do question Arenado's capacity for 40 homers, you might want to offset Jose Altuve's lack thereof with a big bopper, which certainly describes Chris Davis. He fills the first base need, too, which could save you from a prickly situation in Round 7 and beyond.
So where are we short? Batting average, maybe? There's a chance Davis could undo all the good work Altuve did there, so Prince Fielder isn't a bad fourth hitter. Of course, going six rounds without an outfielder is living dangerously in a five-outfielder league, but I'd hate to interfere with that starting pitcher duo of Zack Greinke and Carlos Carrasco. They fit together so nicely, with Carrasco providing the big strikeout potential while Greinke provides ... everything else.
Helpful aside: You should be grateful if you pick in the back half of the first round. These teams look much better than the ones you'd be putting together with a pick in the front half.
Let's just knock out those first base concerns right away with Joey Votto, am I right? He certainly helps in batting average, which I keep suggesting is a problem for Arenado. I'm not even sure that's true, but since it's one of the more difficult categories to address late in drafts, a head start is nice.
Of course, you have no credible steals threats yet, but since you also have no outfielders yet, that's easy to address. Together, Ryan Braun and Carlos Gomez should contribute 50 or so while also padding your home run total. No one-trick ponies here.
Getting a nice balance of the five categories is much easier when you pick in the early have of Round 2, so you should have no qualms about selecting two pitchers with your first six picks. This team's biggest shortcoming is that it doesn't fill any of the three most premium positions -- shortstop, catcher and second base -- but with this particular player pool, where the drop-offs are actually steeper at first and third base, that's hardly a deal-breaker.
