Over the last several weeks, we have projected changes in hitters' performances for 2008, looking at their RC/27s and a variety of other measures. The equivalent of RC/27 for pitchers is ERA. Just as we can predict how offensive production will change based on recent measures of skill and luck, we can spot changes in ERA in the same way. This week, we will focus on the impact of two statistics -- Strand Rate and H/BIP -- that help us to see the impact that luck has had on pitcher performance.
|
Strand Rates can signal a pitcher's skill in keeping runners from scoring as well as his bullpen's reliability. At the extreme ranges, they can also help us to identify pitchers who were unusually lucky or unlucky in preventing runs. If a pitcher registers a Strand Rate of 62% or lower, there is an excellent chance that he is due for more success in preventing runs. The pitchers on the list below are all good bets to decrease their ERA by a run or more, even if their skills don't improve. Each one compiled a Strand Rate no higher than 62% in 2007, and they also had H/BIP rates that were close to neutral.
|
||||
Pitcher | Strand Rate | H/BIP | ||
Andy Sonnanstine | 58% | 33% | ||
Anthony Reyes | 59% | 28% | ||
Jeremy Sowers | 60% | 31% | ||
Cliff Lee | 61% | 30% | ||
Jason Jennings | 61% | 33% | ||
Jeff Weaver | 61% | 33% | ||
Homer Bailey | 62% | 29% |
Likewise, pitchers with Strand Rates of 78% or more are prone to increase their ERAs by at least one run. Fantasy owners might be skeptical that Dan Haren, Jake Peavy and John Lackey are due for major surges, since both built miniscule 2007 ERAs based on a high level of skill. These pitchers also have a past history of stranding baserunners at an above average rate, but their rates from last year far surpassed anything they had done before. Those sparkling ERAs were the product of good fortune as well as good pitching.
|
||||
Pitcher | Strand Rate | H/BIP | ||
Adam Loewen | 79% | 29% | ||
Dan Haren | 79% | 29% | ||
Tim Redding | 79% | 29% | ||
Jake Peavy | 78% | 28% | ||
John Lackey | 78% | 30% |
The pitchers above should see major changes in ERA solely on the basis of Strand Rate. What would happen if they posted extreme H/BIP rates instead? For pitchers who were extremely lucky or unlucky with balls in play falling for hits, we can expect big swings in their WHIPs in addition to ERAs. The pitchers on this next list were unusually unlucky with H/BIP in 2007 and were either unlucky or netural in regard to Strand Rate. All of them have a great chance to improve both their ERAs and WHIPs.
|
||||
Pitcher | Strand Rate | H/BIP | ||
Garrett Olson | 64% | 39% | ||
J.P. Howell | 57% | 38% | ||
Zach Duke | 70% | 37% | ||
Bartolo Colon | 62% | 36% | ||
Scott Olsen | 70% | 35% | ||
Rick VandenHurk | 63% | 35% | ||
Edwin Jackson | 68% | 35% | ||
Mike Mussina | 65% | 35% | ||
Kevin Millwood | 69% | 34% | ||
Chris Capuano | 68% | 34% | ||
Sergio Mitre | 68% | 34% | ||
Mike Pelfrey | 67% | 34% | ||
Matt Belisle | 66% | 34% | ||
Jon Lieber | 68% | 34% | ||
David Wells | 67% | 34% | ||
Jose Contreras | 65% | 34% |
This final list represents pitchers due for a major increase in both ERA and WHIP. Each one benefited from an abnormally low H/BIP last year as well as a neutral or high Strand Rate. Not surprisingly, late-season callups Ian Kennedy and Clay Buchholz make this list. With more innings in 2008, a move to more ordinary stats would be practically inevitable. The fact that they had such good fortune last year only adds to their chances for a big letdown.
|
||||
Pitcher | Strand Rate | H/BIP | ||
Orlando Hernandez | 75% | 23% | ||
Ian Kennedy | 86% | 23% | ||
Esteban Loaiza | 70% | 24% | ||
Brandon Backe | 77% | 25% | ||
Chris Young | 72% | 25% | ||
Clay Buchholz | 83% | 26% | ||
A.J. Burnett | 74% | 26% | ||
Ubaldo Jimenez | 70% | 26% | ||
Brian Bannister | 70% | 26% | ||
Shawn Hill | 73% | 26% | ||
Ted Lilly | 71% | 27% | ||
Carlos Zambrano | 73% | 27% |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.