This week's RC/27 projections cover players at different ends of the offensive spectrum: catchers and designated hitters. Clearly offensive talent is much more scarce among catchers than designated hitters. That's why, in the mid-'90s, Mike Piazza was A-Rod before A-Rod was A-Rod. But exactly how difficult is it to find good offense at catcher as compared to other positions?
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Now that we have RC/27 projections for all regular position players, we can evaluate the scarcity of production across all of the positions. The RC/27 scores tend to bunch up in the middle of the distribution for each position, so the median score is a good indication of how much productivity one can expect from a typical starter at each position. The RC/27 medians tell us that if we had a lineup consisting of run-of-the-mill first basemen, outfielders or designated hitters, that lineup would score an average of about six runs a game. If that lineup were filled with catchers instead, it would usually fail to score five runs a game. The one-run-plus difference may not sound like a lot, but the upshot is that every starting first baseman hits at least as well as an average catcher. Only a few catchers can hit as well as a mediocre first baseman.
| Position | Median RC/27 |
| 1B | 6.4 |
| OF | 6 |
| DH | 5.9 |
| 3B | 5.6 |
| 2B | 5.5 |
| SS | 4.9 |
| C | 4.7 |
When you do find a catcher -- or shortstop -- who hits more like a first baseman, then you know you have a player worthy of one of the top draft picks, because their production is very difficult to replace. We have already established in an earlier column that there are five shortstops who fall into this category. The same is true for catchers. Victor Martinez, Jorge Posada, Russell Martin, Brian McCann and Joe Mauer all project to produce as least as much as a middle-of-the-road first baseman like Ryan Garko. Another five backstops make up the second tier between 5.2 and 5.6 projected RC/27 -- these are the catchers who hit like third basemen. If you miss out on them, then you are left with catchers who hit like catchers. Move on to fill another position and make sure you avoid Jason Kendall and Ivan Rodriguez when you get around to picking your catcher. They may play close to everyday, but even time-splitters like Mike Napoli and Chris Snyder are good bets to outproduce them.
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| Player | 2008 Projection | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| Victor Martinez | 7.5 | 6.6 | 6.3 | 6.5 |
| Jorge Posada | 7.1 | 8.8 | 6.8 | 5.5 |
| Russell Martin | 6.8 | 6.2 | 5.1 | NA |
| Brian McCann | 6.6 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 |
| Joe Mauer | 6.3 | 6 | 7.9 | 5.9 |
| Geovany Soto | 5.6 | 12 | 1.9 | NA |
| Mike Napoli | 5.6 | 5.4 | 5.9 | NA |
| Chris Snyder | 5.4 | 5 | 5.1 | 2.9 |
| Jarrod Saltalamacchia | 5.2 | 4.4 | NA | NA |
| Jason Varitek | 5.2 | 5.5 | 4.2 | 6.5 |
| A.J. Pierzynski | 5 | 3.8 | 5.2 | 4.2 |
| J.R. Towles | 5 | 9.2 | NA | NA |
| Brian Schneider | 4.9 | 4.6 | 8.3 | 4.6 |
| Javier Valentin | 4.8 | 4.3 | 4.6 | 6.8 |
| Kenji Johjima | 4.8 | 4.3 | 5.1 | NA |
| Kurt Suzuki | 4.8 | 4.6 | NA | NA |
| Carlos Ruiz | 4.7 | 4.3 | 4.1 | NA |
| Gregg Zaun | 4.7 | 4.8 | 5.6 | 4.7 |
| Josh Bard | 4.7 | 4.9 | 7.7 | 2.4 |
| Ramon Hernandez | 4.7 | 4.3 | 5.7 | 4.7 |
| John Buck | 4.6 | 4.2 | 4 | 3.6 |
| Ronny Paulino | 4.6 | 4 | 4.9 | NA |
| Bengie Molina | 4.5 | 4.3 | 4.9 | 4.9 |
| David Ross | 4.5 | 3.2 | 7 | 3.5 |
| Gerald Laird | 4.3 | 3.3 | 5.4 | 2.9 |
| Dioner Navarro | 4.2 | 3.2 | 4 | 4.9 |
| Michael Barrett | 4.2 | 3.2 | 6.6 | 5.8 |
| Matt Treanor | 4 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 2.5 |
| Rod Barajas | 4 | 4.3 | 4 | 4.9 |
| Paul Lo Duca | 3.9 | 3.8 | 5.4 | 4.2 |
| Yorvit Torrealba | 3.9 | 3.7 | 3.9 | 3 |
| Mike Rabelo | 3.8 | 3.5 | NA | NA |
| Yadier Molina | 3.8 | 3.9 | 2.6 | 3.3 |
| Ivan Rodriguez | 3.6 | 3.9 | 4.9 | 3.9 |
| Brad Ausmus | 3.5 | 3.4 | 2.7 | 3.8 |
| Jason Kendall | 3.4 | 3.1 | 4.5 | 3.7 |
Finally, we have projections for the designated hitters. Three of the players on this list -- Jonny Gomes, Frank Catalanotto and Cliff Floyd -- are eligible to play outfield, but they are included here because they are expected to play regularly as DHs in 2008. Any of these players projected to produce around 6.0 RC/27 or more are good picks to fill a utility slot, since production at that level is relatively rare. However, once you dip below that level, you can use any number of middle infielders or catchers as a utility player. Certainly, Catalanotto and Floyd should be avoided, as they will not have the production or the playing time to justify a utility or outfield slot. There is also no need to check the transactions page for signings of Piazza or Sammy Sosa, since neither is worthy of being on any Fantasy roster.
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| Player | 2008 Projection | 2007 | 2006 | 2005 |
| David Ortiz | 10.5 | 10.7 | 9.7 | 8.9 |
| Travis Hafner | 8.4 | 6.2 | 11.1 | 9.3 |
| Jim Thome | 8 | 8.4 | 9.7 | 4.4 |
| Gary Sheffield | 7.2 | 6.6 | 5.5 | 7.3 |
| Frank Thomas | 6.9 | 6.5 | 7.4 | 6.2 |
| Jason Giambi | 6.2 | 5.9 | 8.5 | 9.2 |
| Billy Butler | 5.9 | 5.5 | NA | NA |
| Jonny Gomes | 5.8 | 5.4 | 4.4 | 7.1 |
| Frank Catalanotto | 5.4 | 5.2 | 6 | 6 |
| Cliff Floyd | 5.3 | 5.8 | 4.8 | 6.8 |
| Sammy Sosa | 5 | 4.8 | NA | 3.3 |
| Jose Vidro | 4.6 | 5.3 | 4.8 | 5 |
| Mike Piazza | 4.2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 5.1 |
All that is left now are the pitchers. Unless you are Micah Owings, though, a pitcher's value is not in creating runs, but preventing runs. RC/27 is not a relevant metric for pitchers, but of course, a run prevention statistic that we call ERA is. Next week’s data analysis will focus on pitchers who project to have the largest ERA spikes and dips.
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.
