The Diamondbacks have taken a beating over the last three series, dropping seven of the last nine games. Their normally reliable pitching staff has struggled, posting a 4.81 ERA over that span, and even ace Brandon Webb got shellacked by the Dodgers Sunday night. Despite the poor performance, Webb's owners have little to worry about; he has been one of the majors' best pitchers again this year, from both a Fantasy and a skills perspective. The staff as a whole has been a strength this season, but three of their key pitchers could be having even better seasons, if only their skill levels were reflected in their Fantasy stats.
Doug Davis would be having a remarkable season, if only because he rejoined the Arizona rotation just over a month after having his cancerous thyroid gland removed. Davis has not only pitched regularly since his mid-May return, he has pitched well. His skill indicators are the best he has posted since the 2005 season, when he finished with a 3.84 ERA, a career-low 1.30 WHIP and a career-high 208 strikeouts. All he has to show for his 2008 performance is a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, both of which are exaggerated by a 33 percent H/BIP rate. Some of that rate can be blamed on an elevated groundball-to-flyball ratio (1.5, as opposed to 1.3 in both '06 and '07), but some is just plain bad luck. Randy Johnson's ERA and WHIP have also been inflated by a high H/BIP, and in his case, he appears to be simply a victim of chance. Ditto closer Brandon Lyon, who now has a 4.86 ERA and 1.48 WHIP despite a career-best K-to-BB ratio of 3.4. All three pitchers should be able to help the Snakes and their Fantasy owners in the stretch run, even without improvements in their strikeout, walk and home run rates. All they really need is for a few more breaks to go their way.
We will continue to track H/BIP rates for batters and pitchers through the end of the season, but the focus of our analysis will shift during these final weeks. Throughout the season, we have used H/BIP to project which players would improve if their rates reverted to their expected levels. With so much of the season behind us and so little of it still ahead, these lists are not likely to change much over the course of September. Going forward, the spotlight will be on players, like Randy Johnson, who have spent a considerable amount of time on one of these lists this year. In cases like Johnson's, sometimes a season that appears to be skewed by bad luck is, upon closer inspection, just that. In other situations, there may be reasons for a player having an aberrant rate, and understanding these trends can give us insight for evaluating that player for 2009.
All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, August 30.
'Lucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Lucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado | 43% | 8.6 | Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle | 18% | 1.76 |
Chris Dickerson, OF, Cincinnati | 43% | 11.7 | D.J. Carrasco, RP, Chicago White Sox | 22% | 1.82 |
Pablo Sandoval, C, San Francisco | 41% | 7.4 | Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa Bay | 23% | 1.07 |
Daniel Murphy, 3B, N.Y. Mets | 40% | 7.0 | Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston | 24% | 3.54 |
Luis Montanez, OF, Baltimore | 39% | 7.6 | Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit | 24% | 3.22 |
Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City | 37% | 6.4 | Jeff Karstens, SP, Pittsburgh | 24% | 3.22 |
Reed Johnson, OF, Chicago Cubs | 36% | 6.0 | Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox | 25% | 3.62 |
Brian Buscher, 3B, Minnesota | 36% | 4.8 | Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore | 26% | 2.37 |
Darin Erstad, OF, Houston | 36% | 4.5 | Jeff Samardzija, RP, Chicago Cubs | 26% | 1.81 |
Omar Infante, 2B, Atlanta | 34% | 6.0 | Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis | 27% | 2.90 |
Unlucky' Hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | 'Unlucky' Pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh | 16% | 2.0 | Clayton Richard, SP, Chicago White Sox | 37% | 5.77 |
Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati | 21% | 2.4 | Matt Lindstrom, RP, Florida | 35% | 4.22 |
Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle | 22% | 2.5 | Brandon Duckworth, RP, Kansas City | 35% | 5.66 |
Ben Zobrist, SS, Tampa Bay | 22% | 4.5 | Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado | 35% | 5.07 |
Juan Rivera, OF, L.A. Angels | 23% | 3.3 | Jo-Jo Reyes, SP, Atlanta | 34% | 5.50 |
Geoff Blum, 2B, Houston | 24% | 4.2 | Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle | 34% | 5.68 |
Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland | 25% | 4.1 | Brandon Lyon, RP, Arizona | 34% | 4.95 |
Wladimir Balentien, OF, Seattle | 25% | 2.3 | Doug Davis, SP, Arizona | 33% | 4.74 |
Brandon Inge, C, Detroit | 26% | 4.3 | Andy Pettitte, SP, N.Y. Yankees | 33% | 4.33 |
Joe Mather, OF, St. Louis | 26% | 4.7 | Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona | 32% | 3.75 |
Good stats, good skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Good stats, good skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado | 32% | 7.4 | Joe Nelson, RP, Florida | 28% | 2.91 |
Ty Wigginton, 3B, Houston | 31% | 7.3 | Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota | 28% | 3.05 |
Mark DeRosa, OF, Chicago Cubs | 34% | 7.2 | John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox | 30% | 3.30 |
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland | 34% | 6.7 | Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay | 28% | 3.36 |
Marlon Byrd, OF, Texas | 33% | 6.6 | Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta | 30% | 3.59 |
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters | H/BIP | RC/27 | Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers | H/BIP | ERC |
Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota | 33% | 3.4 | Jason Bergmann, SP, Washington | 30% | 4.83 |
Jack Hannahan, 3B, Oakland | 29% | 3.6 | Paul Byrd, SP, Boston | 28% | 4.59 |
Jesus Flores, C, Washington | 32% | 3.8 | Braden Looper, SP, St. Louis | 29% | 4.57 |
Alberto Callaspo, 3B, Kansas City | 32% | 4.0 | Tim Redding, SP, Washington | 30% | 4.52 |
Brandon Jones, OF, Atlanta | 33% | 4.0 | Luis Ayala, RP, N.Y. Mets | 31% | 4.37 |
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Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many
runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player
occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where
Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots;
created by Bill James Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30% Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks) Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats |
Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.