The Diamondbacks have taken a beating over the last three series, dropping seven of the last nine games. Their normally reliable pitching staff has struggled, posting a 4.81 ERA over that span, and even ace Brandon Webb got shellacked by the Dodgers Sunday night. Despite the poor performance, Webb's owners have little to worry about; he has been one of the majors' best pitchers again this year, from both a Fantasy and a skills perspective. The staff as a whole has been a strength this season, but three of their key pitchers could be having even better seasons, if only their skill levels were reflected in their Fantasy stats.

Doug Davis would be having a remarkable season, if only because he rejoined the Arizona rotation just over a month after having his cancerous thyroid gland removed. Davis has not only pitched regularly since his mid-May return, he has pitched well. His skill indicators are the best he has posted since the 2005 season, when he finished with a 3.84 ERA, a career-low 1.30 WHIP and a career-high 208 strikeouts. All he has to show for his 2008 performance is a 4.59 ERA and 1.53 WHIP, both of which are exaggerated by a 33 percent H/BIP rate. Some of that rate can be blamed on an elevated groundball-to-flyball ratio (1.5, as opposed to 1.3 in both '06 and '07), but some is just plain bad luck. Randy Johnson's ERA and WHIP have also been inflated by a high H/BIP, and in his case, he appears to be simply a victim of chance. Ditto closer Brandon Lyon, who now has a 4.86 ERA and 1.48 WHIP despite a career-best K-to-BB ratio of 3.4. All three pitchers should be able to help the Snakes and their Fantasy owners in the stretch run, even without improvements in their strikeout, walk and home run rates. All they really need is for a few more breaks to go their way.

We will continue to track H/BIP rates for batters and pitchers through the end of the season, but the focus of our analysis will shift during these final weeks. Throughout the season, we have used H/BIP to project which players would improve if their rates reverted to their expected levels. With so much of the season behind us and so little of it still ahead, these lists are not likely to change much over the course of September. Going forward, the spotlight will be on players, like Randy Johnson, who have spent a considerable amount of time on one of these lists this year. In cases like Johnson's, sometimes a season that appears to be skewed by bad luck is, upon closer inspection, just that. In other situations, there may be reasons for a player having an aberrant rate, and understanding these trends can give us insight for evaluating that player for 2009.

All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, August 30.

'Lucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Lucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Ian Stewart, 3B, Colorado 43% 8.6 Brandon Morrow, RP, Seattle 18% 1.76
Chris Dickerson, OF, Cincinnati 43% 11.7 D.J. Carrasco, RP, Chicago White Sox 22% 1.82
Pablo Sandoval, C, San Francisco 41% 7.4 Grant Balfour, RP, Tampa Bay 23% 1.07
Daniel Murphy, 3B, N.Y. Mets 40% 7.0 Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston 24% 3.54
Luis Montanez, OF, Baltimore 39% 7.6 Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit 24% 3.22
Mike Aviles, SS, Kansas City 37% 6.4 Jeff Karstens, SP, Pittsburgh 24% 3.22
Reed Johnson, OF, Chicago Cubs 36% 6.0 Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox 25% 3.62
Brian Buscher, 3B, Minnesota 36% 4.8 Jim Johnson, RP, Baltimore 26% 2.37
Darin Erstad, OF, Houston 36% 4.5 Jeff Samardzija, RP, Chicago Cubs 26% 1.81
Omar Infante, 2B, Atlanta 34% 6.0 Adam Wainwright, SP, St. Louis 27% 2.90
Unlucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Unlucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Andy LaRoche, 3B, Pittsburgh 16% 2.0 Clayton Richard, SP, Chicago White Sox 37% 5.77
Corey Patterson, OF, Cincinnati 21% 2.4 Matt Lindstrom, RP, Florida 35% 4.22
Kenji Johjima, C, Seattle 22% 2.5 Brandon Duckworth, RP, Kansas City 35% 5.66
Ben Zobrist, SS, Tampa Bay 22% 4.5 Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado 35% 5.07
Juan Rivera, OF, L.A. Angels 23% 3.3 Jo-Jo Reyes, SP, Atlanta 34% 5.50
Geoff Blum, 2B, Houston 24% 4.2 Carlos Silva, SP, Seattle 34% 5.68
Mark Ellis, 2B, Oakland 25% 4.1 Brandon Lyon, RP, Arizona 34% 4.95
Wladimir Balentien, OF, Seattle 25% 2.3 Doug Davis, SP, Arizona 33% 4.74
Brandon Inge, C, Detroit 26% 4.3 Andy Pettitte, SP, N.Y. Yankees 33% 4.33
Joe Mather, OF, St. Louis 26% 4.7 Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona 32% 3.75
Good stats, good skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Good stats, good skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado 32% 7.4 Joe Nelson, RP, Florida 28% 2.91
Ty Wigginton, 3B, Houston 31% 7.3 Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota 28% 3.05
Mark DeRosa, OF, Chicago Cubs 34% 7.2 John Danks, SP, Chicago White Sox 30% 3.30
Shin-Soo Choo, OF, Cleveland 34% 6.7 Matt Garza, SP, Tampa Bay 28% 3.36
Marlon Byrd, OF, Texas 33% 6.6 Jair Jurrjens, SP, Atlanta 30% 3.59
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Carlos Gomez, OF, Minnesota 33% 3.4 Jason Bergmann, SP, Washington 30% 4.83
Jack Hannahan, 3B, Oakland 29% 3.6 Paul Byrd, SP, Boston 28% 4.59
Jesus Flores, C, Washington 32% 3.8 Braden Looper, SP, St. Louis 29% 4.57
Alberto Callaspo, 3B, Kansas City 32% 4.0 Tim Redding, SP, Washington 30% 4.52
Brandon Jones, OF, Atlanta 33% 4.0 Luis Ayala, RP, N.Y. Mets 31% 4.37
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.