Few starting pitchers are as steady and predictable as Tim Wakefield, but his season is progressing as unpredictably as the flight of one of his knucklers. After a good beginning, he went through a miserable three-game stretch in mid-May during which his ERA shot up nearly two runs, from 3.33 to 5.19. Then Wakefield went on to post a 1.98 ERA over his next seven starts, going at least seven innings in each of those games. As his ERA has dropped, Wakefield’s ownership numbers have continued to grow, from 38 percent in Week 9 to 55 percent in Week 15.

Wakefield's owners have enjoyed a great ride, but how long can it last? The good news for Wakefield owners is that his skill trends support the notion that he can sustain his season-to-date numbers. Most notably, he was walking 4.6 batters per nine innings prior to his hot streak, but that figure has been shaved to a more typical rate of 3.7. Now here's the downer, Wakefield owners: he has also been very lucky over the past month and a half. The Red Sox righty is one of the few pitchers who consistently compiles a below-average H/BIP, and through late May, his rate was a typically low 27 percent. Since then, his rate has fallen to an abnormally-low 24 percent, earning him a place on this week’s "Lucky Pitchers" list. It's unlikely that Wakefield will go back to walking a batter every other inning, but don't be surprised if his ERA and WHIP revert to higher levels as more balls start to fall in for base hits.

While a few too many owners have jumped on the Wakefield bandwagon, far too many are abandoning his Bronx nemesis, Darrell Rasner. Over the last two weeks, more than half of Rasner's owners have dumped him because of a few bad starts, including a Fourth of July shellacking by the Red Sox. His strikeout and walk rates are basically the same now as they were when owners starting jumping ship. What's changed for Rasner is his H/BIP, which in just three starts has gone from a normal 30 percent to a fluky 34 percent. Like Wakefield, Rasner is probably no more than a borderline mixed league pitcher, but he is not as bad as he has appeared to be over his last few starts. In AL-only and deeper mixed leagues, he is a good bargain pickup.

Owners in NL-only leagues looking for a sleeper should consider rostering Rockies southpaw Jorge De La Rosa, one of the majors' unluckiest pitchers. His most obvious asset is his strikeout rate of more than a batter an inning. Sure, his 6.58 ERA and 1.54 WHIP are unsightly to say the least, but both should improve dramatically once his 35 H/BIP rate comes down to earth. Even if that rate doesn't improve (but really, it will), ERC says that his ERA should be more than a run lower than it is.

If you do pick De La Rosa up, it would help if you have an open reserve slot, because he has been the least successful of the Colorado starters at preventing home runs at Coors Field. That's obviously not a trend you want to have anything to do with, so reserve him for home starts. He does, however, have a more-than-respectable 0.8 HR/9 rate on the road. De La Rosa's surface stats make it appear as if he is the same pitcher who struggled through stints with the Brewers and Royals, but he is putting up the best ratios of his career and, with better luck, appears poised for a breakout performance.

Like De La Rosa, Royals speedster Joey Gathright is at that magical breakout age of 27. Too bad for his owners that his current average of .252 is about as good as it is likely to get. He has actually made progress in cutting down his whiff rate, which is currently at 14 percent, but he seems to have reached his ceiling in terms of his other skills. This reality has earned Gathright a spot on the "Poor Stats, Poor Skills" list. For those who see last year's .307 average as a beacon of hope for better things to come, the truth is that his average was propped up by an improbable 37 percent H/BIP rate. Speed can help to create some additional base hits, but a hitter in the Juan Pierre/Willy Taveras mold cannot count on getting hits on more than a third of balls in play with any kind of regularity.

All statistics below are for season-to-date performances through Saturday, July 5.

'Lucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Lucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Edgar Gonzalez, 2B, San Diego 39% 5.1 Gavin Floyd, SP, Chicago White Sox 22% 3.05
Clint Barmes, SS, Colorado 38% 7.0 Justin Masterson, SP, Boston 22% 3.97
Fred Lewis, OF, San Francisco 37% 6.2 Eric Stults, SP, L.A. Dodgers 22% 1.78
Ramon Vazquez, 3B, Texas 37% 6.9 Armando Galarraga, SP, Detroit 23% 3.08
Ryan Church, OF, N.Y. Mets 37% 7.0 Justin Duchscherer, SP, Oakland 23% 1.91
Aaron Rowand, OF, San Francisco 37% 5.7 John Lackey, SP, L.A. Angels 24% 2.08
Kelly Shoppach, C, Cleveland 36% 5.7 Denny Bautista, RP, Pittsburgh 24% 3.58
Brian Buscher, 3B, Minnesota 36% 5.6 Tim Wakefield, SP, Boston 24% 3.72
Adam Jones, OF, Baltimore 35% 4.4 Ryan Dempster, SP, Chicago Cubs 25% 3.05
Aaron Miles, 2B, St. Louis 34% 4.3 Eric Hurley, SP, Texas 26% 4.00
Unlucky' Hitters H/BIP RC/27 'Unlucky' Pitchers H/BIP ERC
Mike Napoli, C, L.A. Angels 20% 4.9 Ramon Troncoso, RP, L.A. Dodgers 37% 4.07
Jonny Gomes, OF, Tampa Bay 21% 4.4 Randy Johnson, SP, Arizona 36% 5.15
Austin Kearns, OF, Cincinnati 21% 2.3 Nate Robertson, SP, Detroit 36% 5.70
Adam Lind, OF, Toronto 21% 2.7 Rafael Betancourt, RP, Cleveland 36% 5.09
Ronnie Belliard, 2B, Washington 22% 4.9 Jorge De La Rosa, SP, Colorado 35% 5.56
Carlos Ruiz, C, Philadelphia 23% 2.4 Charlie Morton, SP, Atlanta 35% 5.78
Rickie Weeks, 2B, Milwaukee 24% 4.1 Andrew Miller, SP, Florida 35% 4.68
Melvin Mora, 3B, Baltimore 25% 3.3 Brian Wilson, RP, San Francisco 34% 4.03
Freddy Sanchez, 2B, Pittsburgh 25% 2.5 Darrell Rasner, SP, N.Y. Yankees 34% 5.06
Kevin Millar, 1B, Baltimore 25% 4.7 A.J. Burnett, SP, Toronto 33% 4.35
Good stats, good skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Good stats, good skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Chris Iannetta, C, Colorado 33% 7.4 Cliff Lee, SP, Cleveland 29% 2.24
Jayson Werth, OF, Philadelphia 32% 7.3 Ervin Santana, SP, L.A. Angels 28% 2.65
Marcus Thames, OF, Detroit 26% 7.1 Jorge Campillo, RP, Atlanta 28% 2.67
Conor Jackson, 1B, Arizona 31% 6.9 Damaso Marte, RP, Pittsburgh 29% 2.80
David DeJesus, OF, Kansas City 33% 6.6 Kevin Slowey, SP, Minnesota 27% 2.95
Poor stats, poor skills - hitters H/BIP RC/27 Poor stats, poor skills - pitchers H/BIP ERC
Brendan Ryan, SS, St. Louis 31% 3.3 Paul Byrd, SP, Cleveland 28% 5.35
Joey Gathright, OF, Kansas City 29% 3.3 Todd Jones, RP, Detroit 31% 5.33
Jeff Mathis, C, L.A. Angels 27% 3.5 Oliver Perez, SP, N.Y. Mets 27% 5.23
Brian Schneider, C, N.Y. Mets 30% 3.6 Vicente Padilla, SP, Texas 29% 5.22
Jack Hannahan, 3B, Oakland 29% 3.8 Adam Eaton, SP, Philadelphia 30% 5.21
Glossary
Runs Created per 27 Outs (RC/27) -- An estimate of how many runs a lineup would produce per 27 outs if a particular player occupied each spot in the order; ex. the RC/27 for Miguel Cabrera would predict the productivity of a lineup where Cabrera (or his statistical equal) batted in all nine spots; created by Bill James
Component ERA (ERC) -- An estimate of a what a pitcher's ERA would be if it were based solely on actual pitching performance; created by Bill James
Base Hits per Balls in Play (H/BIP) -- The percentage of balls in play (at bats minus strikeouts and home runs) that are base hits; research by Voros McCracken and others has established that this rate is largely random and has a norm of approximately 30%
Isolated Power -- The difference between slugging percentage and batting average; created by Branch Rickey and Allan Roth
Walk Rate -- Walks / (at bats + walks)
Whiff Rate -- Strikeouts / at bats

Al Melchior was recently a Fantasy columnist and data analyst for Baseball HQ and will be providing advice columns for CBSSports.com. Click here to send him a question. Please put "Melchior" in the subject field.